Thursday Night Preview with a Vegas Twist
If there was one Patriot that I would start on Thursday night, it would be Brady. There’s like a 1% chance that the Giants win this game, so I am assuming that Brady will have a huge night. The only question is whether New England will be so good that Brady won’t need to throw in the second half. I am thinking Brady gets 260 passing yards and at least 2 TDs in this rout.
Danny Dimes has been everything the Giants could have hoped for thus far but going into Foxboro on a Thursday night in bad weather without Barkley, Shepard, Engram, or Gallman is just asking too much. If by some miracle the Giants win this game, I will suggest that the Giants faithful erect a statue of Jones outside MetLife Stadium.
White will be a big part of the offensive scheme until the Patriots go out to a big lead and then start running the ball in the second half. I don’t see the Giants defense forcing too many third and longs (the down that White specializes in), but White could easily have 4-5 check down targets in this matchup.
Michel is close to a must start in this game. The Patriots should be winning by double digits before halftime, so I can easily see Michel getting a ton of second half carries. I am thinking 80 yards and a TD.
If you are looking for the deepest sleeper possible this week at running back, look no further than Hilliman. The Giants are without Saquon and Gallman this week, so Hilliman could easily see 18-22 touches. The simple rule in Fantasy Football is: opportunity equals points. I think Hilliman could have 14-16 points in PPR formats, making him a sneaky but productive start.
Don’t worry about Edelman’s chest injury, he will be suiting up for the game and should once again be Brady’s most trusted target. It’s hard to predict him to score, but he should be able to dominate the Giants secondary and could easily have 8-9 receptions if the Patriots throw the ball aggressively. Along with Brady and Michel, Edelman is a must start in this game.
Gordon is dealing with a knee injury, but I fully expect him to be active on Thursday night. If Gordon is going to do any damage, I expect that it will happen early in the game. Once the Patriots are up big, I can see them taking Gordon out to make sure his knee does not get any worse. Look for Gordon to have an early TD and 80-90 yards.
Myers is a sneaky DFS contrarian start since Phillip Dorsett will be unavailable for this week.
With Sterling Shepard out, Slayton will move into the starting lineup. The good news is that he has decent size and speed. The bad news is that I think he will see a heavy dose of Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore. Avoid Slayton unless you are in a BYE week crunch.
Outside of Hilliman, Tate is the only other Giant skill player who is worth starting on Thursday night. The only potential problem is that Jones has not had a chance to build a rapport with Tate as of yet. This game will give the two players a great chance to get acquainted as Tate is the only reliable veteran pass catcher the team has.
Izzo found the end zone last week, so I might consider him in standard formats. In PPR leagues, I don’t think he will have enough volume to be worth starting.
The Giants have a propensity for throwing to their tight ends, but Ellison is known more for his blocking than his receiving skills. That said, if the Giants are near the end zone, I can see them faking to the RB and throwing to Ellison for a cheap TD.
Week 6 Vegas Twist
- Moneyline: NYG: (+850) | NE: (-1450)
- Spread: NYG: +17 (-110) | NE: -17 (-110)
- Total: 41.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 41.5 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NYG: 27% | NE: 73%
If the sharp action is any indication for what we are in store for Thursday night, all fantasy owners need to employ New England running backs and the New England D/ST. According to the information provided by Vegas Whispers, the sharps are backing the Patriots laying the 17-points as well as pounding the UNDER. The Under opened at 44.5, but due to significant rain and winds in the forecast, the Under has seen such sharp action it now stands at 41.5. The Patriots (5-0 SU & 2-2 ATS) will be looking for their third straight home win when they take on a very short-handed Giants club that will be without RBs Saquon Barkley & Wayne Gallman, TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Shepard. New York (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) will be facing arguably the best defense in the NFL in New England that has allowed a league-low 34 points through five games. The slew of injuries on New York’s side combined with a nor’Easter in the forecast means there should not be any players trusted to be in started lineups from the Giants side of the ball. Fantasy players should start RBs Sony Michel and James White, WR Julien Edleman and the New New England D/ST with confidence.
The Play: New England -17 (2 Units)
- The Patriots are 20-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.
- The Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall
- NE is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games