2024 Miami Marlins Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.

This 2024 Miami Marlins Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Marlins haven’t scored more runs than they allowed since 2010 (719 to 717), but they made the postseason twice over the past four years. Miami has been in the league for 31 years, with four playoff berths, two leading to World Series titles (1997 and 2003). 

They ranked 16th in ERA (4.21) while having less value from their relievers (4.37 ERA – 21st). The Marlins’ bullpen had 45 wins (3rd), 27 losses, and 43 saves over 617.1 innings with 665 strikeouts. Miami scored only 666 runs (26th) with 166 home runs (22nd) and 633 RBIs (27th). Their baserunners stole 86 bags on 107 tries (80.4%). Surprisingly, they finished fifth in batting average (.259), thanks to Luis Arraez (.354).

In the offseason, the Marlins acquired 2B Vidal Brujan from Tampa for SS Erick Lara and P Andrew Lindsey. Cleveland shipped them C Christian Bethancourt for cash. Miami added 1B Trey Mancini as a non-roster invitee. They lost OF Jorge Soler, RP David Robertson, RP Matt Moore, and 2B Garrett Hampson to free agency.

The starting rotation has high upside at multiple pitching slots and injury risk. The Marlins will be without SP Sandy Alcantara for 2024 after having TJ surgery last October. SP Eury Perez is a future ace but needs to build up his innings count before becoming a trusted frontline fantasy starter. Miami has three lefties at the top of their bullpen depth chart, leaving a cloudy feel to their closing job.

Offensively, the Marlins will rank below the league average again in 2024. They don’t have one impact player with multiple starting jobs up for grabs this year. Ultimately, Miami needs more Jazz in their lineup, but that thought tends to be out of tune on too many days.

Starting Lineup

2B Luis Arraez

The Twins gave Arraez the best opportunity of his career in 2022, leading to career highs in at-bats (547), runs (88), home runs (8), and RBIs (49). He finished the season ranked 67th in FPGscore (0.66), thanks to his edge in batting average (.316 ~ +2.80 points gained in roto standings). He made strides to improve his swing path, highlighted by a career-high flyball rate (32.9) and a new top in his HR/FB rate (4.8). Arraez continues to have a weak average hit rate (1.329). He worked in the 2023 off-season with Nelson Cruz to improve his loft. 

Last year, Arraez hit .402 (.425 contact batting average) over his first 274 at-bats with 34 runs, three home runs, 37 RBIs, and one steal. Pitchers only struck him out 15 times over this span with 24 walks. Over his final 300 at-bats, he hit .310 (.331 contact batting average) with 37 runs, seven home runs, and 32 RBIs. Four of his home runs came over his final 10 games.  Arraez hit over .300 every month except August (.236/13/5/11 over 110 at-bats). 

His walk rate (5.7) was a career low while posting one of the lowest strikeout rates (5.5) in the modern era of baseball. Arraez only had 19 barrels (18 in 2022), with no change in his launch angle (11.5). His exit velocity (88.3) was a three-year low. The high number of balls in play led to a meager hard-hit rate (25.7). His HR/FB rate (6.5) was a career-best.

Fantasy Outlook: Arraez finished last year ranked FPGscore 52nd (1.56) for hitters with +4.80 coming from batting average. His ADP (166) in the high-stake market ranked him 15th at second base as the 101st player drafted. The Marlins have a below-par, creating weakness in runs and RBIs. His first-half run in contact batting average was an outlier, especially with no uptick in his exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

In addition, only 140 of his 540 balls in play reached the 95.0 mph mark (153 out of 504 in 2022). I don’t see a pop in home runs, but I know he will work hard over the winter to improve. Arraez is a unique fantasy option that hurts a team structure more than he helps in most team builds. Let’s go .325 with 75 runs, seven home runs, 60 RBIs, and three steals. I’m only interested in him at a discount, but I must follow his spring news in case his bat shows more power…

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