2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Kyle Trask

The Bucs added their possible future quarterback in the second round in 2021. He brings an NFL arm with an excellent rhythm in his passes. His weakness comes in his pocket presence and reads at the line of scrimmage and in the secondary. Trask lacked the intangibles needed to start in the NFL early in his career. A couple of years of holding a clipboard behind Tom Brady should treat him well and possibly fill in the missing links to his game.

In his final year at Florida, Trask passed for 4,283 yards and 43 touchdowns with minimal value on the ground (64/50/3). He finished his college career with strength in his completion rate (67.9) and yards per pass attempt (9.1).

The Buccaneers have him 10 snaps in 2022 (3-for-9 with 23 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: I don’t expect Trask to get drafted in many formats in July and August, but he may offer QB2 value early in the year if Tampa gives him the starting job. His ceiling is unknown, while Baker Mayfield has five years of mediocrity on his resume. I’ll have Trask as the winning quarterback in this offense.

Baker Mayfield

Health clearly efforted the throwing ability of Mayfield in 2021. Despite his issues, he hasn’t been a winning quarterback (29-30) over his four seasons with Cleveland. His completion rate (61.6) came in well below his college career (68.5) while falling to be a difference-maker in touchdowns (92 over 60 games). Mayfield tossed three touchdowns or more in nine of his 59 starts – none over his late 18 games with the Browns). After 2021, Mayfield had surgery on his left shoulder in January to repair a torn labrum. 

The switch to Carolina didn’t go well for Mayfield. Over his first five starts, he passed for 962 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions with a dismal completion rate (54.9). An ankle injury in mid-October led to two missed games. The Panthers had him on the field for two more matchups (155/2 and 196/0) over the next month before releasing him.

With Matthew Stafford out for the season, the Rams gave Mayfield five starts to end the year. Unfortunately, he made minimal strides (82-for-129 for 850 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions). Mayfield gained a career-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt on the year with 31 rushes for 89 yards and one touchdown. His value in the run game (189/660/6) has been minimal in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: Tampa has two veteran wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) with a serviceable WR3 and tight end. Their offensive line has plenty of questions, and Mayfield won’t get the ball out as quickly as Tom Brady. The Bucs will let their quarterback battle play out over the summer. Either way, I don’t see a winning fantasy play by this below-par NFL quarterback. Tampa should start its rebuilding process by giving Kyle Trask the starting gig.

Other Options: John Wolford

— Running Backs —

The Buccaneers’ offensive failure last year is highlighted by their running backs gaining only 3.7 yards per rush (4.6 in 2021 and 4.5 in 2020). Their backs gained short yards per catch (6.4, 6.4, and 6.5) in all three years, with Tom Brady behind center. In addition, Tampa’s backs scored 13 fewer touchdowns last season than in 2021 (22). On the positive side, their poor pass blocking led to Brady using his running backs more in the passing game (128/831/5) last year. They finished with 2,142 combined yards, nine touchdowns, and 128 catches (23.31 FPPG in PPR formats).

Rachaad White

After a limited role in 2020 in college (571 combined yards with six catches and eight catches on 50 touches), White flashed three-down ability (182/1,006/15 with 43 catches for 456 yards and one touchdown) the following year. He gained 5.5 yards per rush and 10.6 yards per catch.

Other than some concern with his pass protection, White brings an exciting three-down skill set. He runs with eyes up with a combination of patience and shimmy, helping him create space at the first level of defenses. When given daylight, White has enough speed to make big plays. He sells his routes well with plus hands.

In his rookie season, Tampa gave White 179 touches over 17 games, but he struggled to make big plays (3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch). White finished with 771 combined yards with three touchdowns and 50 catches, ranking him 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues. From Week 10 through the first week of the postseason (9 games), he scored double-digit fantasy points in six matchups (10.50, 19.90, 17.90, 11.70, 15.30, and 11.70). 

Fantasy Outlook: With Leonard Fournette no longer on the roster, White projects as the Buccaneers starting running back. On the downside, they’ll have a downgrade in quarterback and throw the ball 200 times less than in 2022 (751). I’m not a fan of Tampa’s offensive line, but he should be a better player this year. White ranked 24th in late June at the running back position in the high-stakes market. My early thought is 1,150 combined yards with four to six touchdowns and 50 catches…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BUCCANEERS IN 2023?

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