Bijan Robinson

DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5

October 2, 2024 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 5 Last week’s NFC East showdown didn’t live up to the hype. However, our Best Bet of New York +6 hit, so we’re content. For Week 5, we move down to the NFC South where […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.

It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.

Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.

This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Dallas Cowboys 9 1 30 16 6
New York Giants 22 21 19 25 29

The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.

Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.

The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.

New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.

On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.

The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?

Dallas Offense 

Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…

 

How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

July 20, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is […]

2024 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.

Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.

Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was ‘stunned’ when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.

Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams’ system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.

The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.

Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins’s deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.

The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.

Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several “track meet” types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.

Quarterbacks

QB KIRK COUSINS – QUALITY BACKUP

Because he’s been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He’s posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league’s easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2…

 

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DFS

Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report

December 28, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report Breece Hall (43.10 fantasy points) turned in a beast game in Week 16, giving him the top ranking. Christian McCaffrey (25.10) and Jahmyr Gibbs (25.00) finished second and third in running back scoring. Only […]

Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report

Breece Hall (43.10 fantasy points) turned in a beast game in Week 16, giving him the top ranking. Christian McCaffrey (25.10) and Jahmyr Gibbs (25.00) finished second and third in running back scoring. Only three other backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 16 weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (25.35)
  • Raheem Mostert (17.91)
  • Rashaad White (16.47)
  • Travis Etienne (16.19)
  • Breece Hall (15.59)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 17 DFS QB Report.

Elite Option

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,600/FD – $11,000)

The 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all of their plays last week, leading to his eighth consecutive game with more than 100 combined yards. He has a touchdown in 13 of his 15 starts with a combined 21 scores. His two impact games (48.70 and 41.70) came against the Cardinals. McCaffrey has a floor of 20.00 fantasy points in eight other matchups. He is on pace to gain 2,190 combined yards with 24 touchdowns and 71 catches on 364 touches.

Washington fell to 29th in running back defense (26.13 FPPG) after allowing more than 28.00 fantasy points to backs in their last eight games. The Jets and Breece Hall drilled the Commanders for 242 combined yards with two touchdowns and 12 catches. Running backs have 16 touchdowns with success in the passing game (82/587/5).

McCaffrey has an excellent matchup, with a high floor in fantasy points. The 49ers should score at will in this game, but they could give their star running back some snaps off if Washington doesn’t put up a fight on the scoreboard. 

Second-Tier Options

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DFS

Week 16 DFS: Running Back Report

December 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 16 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (41.70) led Week 15 in fantasy scoring, giving him 100.40 fantasy points in his two games vs. the Cardinals. James Cooks (36.10) posted the runner-up scores, followed by Kyren Williams (26.80). Six […]

Week 16 DFS: Running Back Report

Christian McCaffrey (41.70) led Week 15 in fantasy scoring, giving him 100.40 fantasy points in his two games vs. the Cardinals. James Cooks (36.10) posted the runner-up scores, followed by Kyren Williams (26.80). Six other running backs scored between 20.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR scoring. Here are the top five backs by scoring average after 15 weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (25.36)
  • Raheem Mostert (18.34)
  • Travis Etienne (16.91)
  • Rachaad White (16.24)
  • Alvin Kamara (15.62)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 16 DFS QB Report.

Top Tier Options

Rachaad White, TB (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,700)

White comes into this week as the highest-priced running back due to the highest options not playing on the main slate on Sunday. He scored seven touchdowns over the past seven games, gaining 765 yards with 21 catches (20.79 FPPG in DraftKings scoring). White averaged 21.57 touches over this span. His only game with more than 20.00 fantasy points at home came in Week 2 (21.30).

The Jaguars slipped to 17th in running back defense (23.16 FPPG), with three teams scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points. Over the past six weeks, they allowed seven touchdowns to rushers with fading value defending the run (168/816 – 4.9 yards per carry). Running backs have 94 catches for 654 yards and one score on 115 targets.

The Bucs’ offense played better over the past two weeks (nine touchdowns and four field goals over 21 possessions) while playing six of their last eight games on the road. White comes off back-to-back 20+ fantasy points game while trending much higher in the run game over his previous four matchups (15/100, 20/84/1, 25/102, and 21/89 – 4.6 yards per rush). He has a solid floor and an untapped ceiling. The SHARPS will ride this BAMF to the winner circle in Week 16.

Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,100)

In the most crucial week in the season-long games in the high-stakes market, Robinson gave his fantasy supporters…

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DFS

Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report

November 3, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and […]

Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report

Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and Gus Edwards (29.40) filled out the running back trifecta. Five other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Alvin Kamara (24.57) and Travis Etienne (23.97) averaged the most fantasy points per game in PPR formats over the past three weeks. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average over the first eight weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
  • Travis Etienne (20.49)
  • Raheem Mostert (19.64)
  • Kenneth Walker (16.09)
  • Zack Moss (15.65)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Top-Tier Options

Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)

The excellent opportunity continued in Week 8 for Kamara. He gained 110 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 21 touches against the Colts. The Saints gave him the ball 125 times over his first five starts, leading to 110 yards and 7.8 catches per game. Taysom Hill sniped three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks while also stealing 14 rushes for 81 yards.

Chicago ranks 27th in running back defense (25.54 FPPG), with most of their struggles coming over the first three games (34.50, 23.20, and 46.30 fantasy points). The Bears continue to play well vs. the run (193/630/4 – 3.3 yards per carry), but backs have 48 catches for 497 yards and five touchdowns on 61 targets. 

Kamara holds his floor in most weeks due to his value in the passing game. His rising salary requires more than 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings, but he can’t reach that level without at least one long play and a touchdown. New Orleans will get Jamaal Williams involved, and Hill has been stealing away his explosiveness. Playing well, and the Saints’ offense should score in this game.

Saquon Barkley, NYG (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600)

The Giants’ offense has been dismal in seven of the eight games, leading them averaging only 11.9 points per game. Over the last three weeks, Barkley has been a big part of New York’s game plan (81/298 with 19 catches for 46 yards and one touchdown on 91 touches). Daniel Jones returns this week, along with LT Andrew Thomas, breathing life into all offensive players for the Giants. Barkley posted one playable game (27.20 fantasy points) in Week 2.

Las Vegas fell to 29th in running back defense (27.34 FPPG) after struggling over the past three weeks (31.80, 40.80, and 38.50 fantasy points). The Raiders allow 4.5 yards per rush, with backs scoring 11 touchdowns. Over the past two games, Chicago and Detroit rushed for 395 yards with three touchdowns. Running backs have 42 catches for 267 yards and one score on 56 targets.

With Daniel Jones back in the starting lineup, Barkley will see…

 

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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Raheem Mostert
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

October 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:

  • Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
  • Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
  • De’Von Achane – 102.70
  • Travis Etienne – 92.00
  • Kenneth Walker – 73.60

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)

Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches. 

Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.

With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…

 

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Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

October 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat […]

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.

The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:

  • Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
  • Raheem Mostert (90.40)
  • Kyren Williams (81.60)
  • De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
  • Kenneth Walker (73.60)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)

I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances). 

Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with…

 

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