2024 Arizona Diamondbacks

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Diamondbacks made the postseason last year for the first time since 2017 despite being outscored by 15 runs (746-761). They turned their surprising run into a World Series appearance against the Texas Rangers, but they failed to take down the championship. Arizona made the playoffs seven times in the team’s 26-year history, with their only World Series title coming in 2001. The last four times the Diamondbacks made the postseason, they failed to follow through with another playoff berth.

Arizona ranked 21st in ERA (4.47), just two spots lower than the Rangers. Their bullpen posted a 4.22 ERA (18th) over 595.0 innings with 38 wins, 27 losses, 44 saves, and 586 strikeouts. The Cardinals’ offense finished 14th in runs (746), 22nd in home runs (166), and 15th in RBIs (706). They had the second-best output in steals (166-for-192) with an excellent success rate (86.5%).

Arizona signed OF Joc Pederson, OF Randal Grichuk, SP Eduardo Rodriguez, and C Tucker Barnhart in the offseason. Arizona parted ways with OF Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Madison Bumgarner, OF Kyle Lewis, and RP Mark Melancon. The Diamondbacks acquired 3B Eugenio Suarez in a deal with the Mariners for C Seby Zavala and P Carlos Vargas. 

Their offense has a blend of promising young players – OF Corbin Carroll, C Gabriel Moreno, and OF Alek Thomas, paired with a veteran presence. Based on their early starting lineup, SS Jordan Lawlar looks poised to earn many at-bats with Arizona this year. If this team is going to make another run at a postseason appearance, they must score more runs and produce a higher total in home runs.

SP Zac Gallen gives the Cardinals one ace, but he is coming off a massive workload in innings pitched (243.2). The combination of SP Merrill Kelly and SP Eduardo Rodriguez allows Arizona to offer competitive innings for hopefully another 60+ starts. If SP Brandon Pfaadt reaches his potential in 2024, this team will be in the hunt for another playoff appearance. The bullpen doesn’t stand out as a difference-maker heading into the spring training. 

Starting Lineup

OF Corbin Carroll

Over his first 49 games in the minors, Carroll hit .316 with 45 runs, four home runs, 25 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases over 177 at-bats. He missed a year of development time in 2020 due to no minor league baseball (COVID-19) while seeing his next season cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery. 

His bat hit the ground running in 2022 between AA and AAA (.307 with 89 runs, 24 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 31 steals over 362 at-bats). His walk rate (15.5) screamed top-the-order bat, but his strikeout rate (23.6) came in just above the league average. The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 104 at-bat experience (.260/13/4/14/2). He finished with a few more strikeouts (27.0%) and a weaker walk rate (7.0%), but his pedigree suggested he was a stud in the making. 

The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 155 games of action in 2023, leading to impressive stats in all categories, highlighted by his exceptional value in steals (54). He battled a left knee injury, a right shoulder issue, and a minor wrist injury during the year, but he never missed more than two games for any issue. Before the All-Star break, Carroll had the most value in power (.289/63/18/48/26 over 308 at-bats), so his late June/early July shoulder issue may have been the reason for his decline in power (seven home runs over his final 257 at-bats). In September, he cranked up stolen base output (13) to reach the 50-mark. 

His swing path was more balanced last season, leading to a career-high (all levels) flyball rate (37.1). Carroll had posted a lower HR/FB rate (15.4) than his more league resume in 2021 and 2022. He improved his strikeout rate (19.4) and walk rate (8.8) while expecting his free passes to rise with more experience. 

Carroll only had 34 barrels, with 25 leaving the yard. His exit velocity (90.0) and hard-hit rate (40.9) remain below the top 100 players in baseball. 

Fantasy Outlook: Carroll finished last year as the fifth-best batter by FPGscore (9.23) for hitters. Based on his average hit rate (1.776) and contact batting average (.366), there is more upside in power and batting average when looking at those stats in his minor league career. His ADP (5) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship supports his results from 2024. Carroll has the profile of someone who could hit over .320 with 30+ home runs.

If he reaches those totals, added to his value in steals, Carroll has a unique foundation skill set to start a fantasy team. Between walks and hits, he could potentially get only base 40 to 50 more times in 2024, creating a higher ceiling in runs and steals. I am starting to fall in love, and my wheels are spinning on how to build my team with him. Sometimes, the runner-up prize is the best-looking option in the room…

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