Daily Dr. Roto—November 7, 2019
Week 10 Thursday Night Preview
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders have been incredibly generous all season long to quarterbacks, ranking second-worst against them statistically. Just last week, Lions QB Matthew Stafford threw for over 400 yards and looked like he could have thrown for even more. The Raiders lost DE Arden key to a season ending injury this week which should only help give Rivers more time to set up the play-action pass to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers have played well for the last two weeks and the Raiders sad-sack defense comes at a good time for them.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Carr has been much better than expected this season. Originally, I thought he was a poor fit for Gruden’s offense, but he seems to have come around and can make the necessary throws. I don’t expect a big game from Carr tonight as the Raiders always look to run the football first and they should have some initial success tonight. Carr could get some late garbage points, but I think he is looking at a night of 240 passing yards and a TD which is just not good enough QB production.
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
The one thing the Raiders do well on defense is stop the run. Regardless, look for the Chargers to use Gordon in the first quarter to see if the loss of Raiders DE Arden Key makes their front seven softer against the run. If the Raiders hold tough, the Chargers will be forced to abandon the run and use their passing attack, which is what I expect will happen. Once that occurs, Gordon’s numbers will plummet as he will see fewer snaps.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
If the Raiders contain Melvin Gordon, the Chargers will abandon their running attack and it will be interesting to see how their new offensive coordinator uses Ekeler. What we know for a fact is that Ekeler needs 10-15 touches per game to thrive and that he is a must start each week based on his immense upside.
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
I was utterly shocked last week when the Chargers run defense shut down the Packers running game. The three previous weeks before the Chargers were awful against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Chicago. For sure, Jon Gruden is going to challenge the Chargers run defense by running Jacobs as much as possible. The Chargers are going to have to go all-in to slow him down, as Jacobs is becoming a major threat. For sure, fantasy owners need to start Jacobs tonight, but truthfully, I think there is a great deal of variance as to his potential outcomes. He could run for 120 yards and 2 TDs if the Chargers defense doesn’t come to play, or he could run for 34 yards and zero TDs if they play as well as they did last week.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
It seems as if we are in the midst of a Keenan Allen disappearing act. How is this possible? I am not quite sure. I know that Allen was not 100% healthy a few weeks ago, but I thought he was over his injury issues. Perhaps there is more to it that the team is willing to let on? Assuming he is healthy, Rivers needs to do a MUCH better job of going to Allen. In fact, Allen has not had more than 61 yards receiving since Week 3 this season. I have a good feeling about the Chargers passing game tonight and I would use Allen confidently in all formats.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Prior to the season I would have told you that Williams was a lock to score 10 TDs. Well, it’s now Week 10 and you know how many TDs he has scored? Zero! Well, I think that changes on Thursday night. Williams had a great week (111 receiving yards) with Packers CB Jaire Alexander covering him, and this week he will see the generous Raiders secondary who gave up 100-yard receiving games to both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Williams feels like a pregnant lady who is so due that she is ready to burst. Feel free to plug him into all lineups and watch him finally cross the goal line.
Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders
Williams is going to see a ton of Pro-Bowl CB Casey Heyward which is never a good thing for Fantasy production. He could have some late game garbage production, but I might look elsewhere if you have other options.
Zay Jones, Oakland Raiders
In the two weeks since he’s been activated, Jones has slowly been integrated into the Raiders offense. He has six targets in the last two games, and although he hasn’t had huge production, it’s obvious that the team needs him on the field, and he will slowly ramp up his numbers. With Heyward draped all over Tyrell Williams, this might be the perfect chance for Jones to step up and make a play. I wouldn’t play him liberally in seasonal formats (unless you have BYE week issues), but he could be an interesting DFS option.
Hunter Renfrow, Oakland Raiders
I loved Renfrow coming out of Clemson, and was taking him in Rounds 19-20 of most of my drafts this season. However, he got off to a horrible start and I dropped him weeks ago for lack of production. The last two weeks, however, have been a completely different story as Renfrow has broken out and given the Raiders two huge performances. That said, I think we need to temper expectations and put things into perspective. Against Houston, he broke off one huge unexpected play. Against Detroit, Renfrow dominated the worst slot cover CB in the league. What I am thinking here is that playing Renfrow is not a bad idea, but it feels like you are chasing his recent production.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Statistically speaking, the Raiders are the second worst-team against opposing tight ends. This should mean another big performance for Hunter Henry. After missing four weeks earlier in the season, Henry has been on fire with 33 targets in the last four games. Fire him up on Thursday night as he should have 6 catches for 80 yards and a great chance at a TD.
Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders
Waller has been held in check for the past two games, as teams have been using much tighter coverage on him. With 4 receptions for 63 yards in those two games, Carr has been forced to look elsewhere for production. That said, I will start Waller for sure in seasonal formats, but I might fade him in DFS Showdown slates in case the Chargers commit to stopping him and leaving other receivers open.