DFS

Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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Trevor Lawrence
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7

October 18, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7

Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference battle that opened at a lowly 42.5 and dropped. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 breaks down the Saints/Jaguars game from a fantasy, DFS, and sports betting lens.

Doug Pederson’s Jaguars have won three straight after an embarrassing home loss to the Houston Texans. That included a pair of victories in London. Jacksonville is 2-0 on the road. However, few teams have as strong of a home-field advantage as the New Orleans Saints.

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Speaking of the Saints, Dennis Allen’s squad is 3-3 after they too were defeated by Houston. However, that loss came on the road and was much more competitive. New Orleans has scored 20 or fewer points in five of their six games, and looking at the depressed total, it could be another low-scoring Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 game to handicap.

Subsequently, the Saints are mere 1-point favorites, with an implied game score of 21-19.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 12 15 20 10
New Orleans Saints 17 15 23 26 24

Unsurprisingly, Pederson’s Jaguars squad has been better offensively. Jacksonville is averaging 23.7 points per game, which is just behind the Chiefs. The Jags also hold an edge at every skill position, making them the more fantasy-friendly roster.

However, Jacksonville’s offensive line has struggled. The Jaguars have allowed Trevor Lawrence to be sacked 16 times and face too many pressures. Lawrence has only 2.46 seconds to throw the ball, which is the second-lowest time in football. That has resulted in him ranking 26th with a -1.2 completion rate over expectation.

Meanwhile, the Saints rank 6th in total defense. Derek Carr has been serviceable under center. However, Carr has thrown only five touchdown passes and the Saints rank 24th in scoring. Carr also has the fewest rushing yards among any NFL quarterback that has started multiple games.

Scoring will be at a premium.

Jacksonville Offense 

As mentioned above, some of Trevor Lawrence‘s…

How will Thursday’s Jaguars vs. Saints game go?

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Jordan Addison
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 14, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 […]

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 in wide receiver scoring in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill (8/181/1) was the only other wideout to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Eight wide receivers finish with 20.00 to 28.00 fantasy points. DeAndre Hopkins posted his best game (8/140), but he ranks 37th after his five starts with the Titans. Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers after five games:

  • Tyreek Hill (132.50)
  • Keenan Allen (103.45 – four games)
  • Stefon Diggs (120.00)
  • Puka Nacu (115.60)
  • Justin Jefferson (109.80)

Also, before we get into the Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)

Hill has been on the winning Millionaire Maker ticket at DraftKings in Week 1 (11/215/2), Week 3 (9/157/1), and Week 5 (8/181/1). He delivered lower results (5/40/1 and 3/58) in his other two matchups vs. division opponents. He is on pace to catch 122 passes for 2,213 yards and 17 touches, which would be career-highs in all categories. His rhythm last season over the first eight games and his start in 2023 leads to his best outputs coming every other week. Hill already has four completions of 40 yards or more.

The Panthers rank seventh in wide receiver defense (49/642/4 on 74 targets). Justin Jefferson (6/85/2) posted the best game against them, while DK Metcalf (6/112) is the only wideout to gain more than 100 receiving yards. Carolina’s success vs. wide receiver is somewhat masked by their poor run defense, leading to quarterbacks averaging only 27.6 passes. CB Donte Jackson has risk defending the long field (11 catches allowed for 202 yards and one touchdown on 17 targets ~ 18.1 yards per catch per PFF), and CB CJ Henderson (13/173/1) allows a high catch rate (81.3).

Hill brings a double jeopardy skill set for defenses to defend. His quickness is elite, setting up many easy catches over the short areas of the field. In addition, he can beat a secondary over the top in a blink of an eye. So far this year, I haven’t had Hill enough or used him in the correct team build. He is the player with the highest ceiling in many weeks, meaning a ride without him can lead to losing tickets more often than not. Rinse and Repeat.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,300)

The success of Chase in Week 5 (15/192/3 on 19 targets) was the first game in his career where he paired volume of chances with a long scoring play. In his two impact games (8/201/1 and 11/266/3) in his rookie season, he had 10 and 12 targets in those matchups while gaining 20 yards or more on eight plays. His only two catches of 20 yards or more this season went for 43 and 63 yards. Chase is now on pace to catch 150 passes for 1,618 yards and 10 touchdowns. His one strike is his yards per catch (10.8 – 12.0 in 2022 and 18.0 in 2021).

Seattle has the worst defense in the league against…

 

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Raheem Mostert
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

October 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:

  • Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
  • Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
  • De’Von Achane – 102.70
  • Travis Etienne – 92.00
  • Kenneth Walker – 73.60

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)

Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches. 

Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.

With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…

 

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tj hockenson
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – […]

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – 10/67/1, Logan Thomas – 9/77/1, Sam LaPorta – 3/47/2, and Dalton Schultz – 7/65/1). All outcomes propelled each player to the top 13 in tight end scoring. Here’s a look at the five scoring tight ends after five games in PPR formats:

  • Sam LaPorta (71.90)
  • Travis Kelce (67.20)
  • T.J. Hockenson (66.40)
  • Cole Kmet (64.20)
  • Mark Andrews (60.50)

 

Also, here are the top plays this week via the Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 6 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,600/FD – $6,700)

Over the past two weeks, Hockenson only had seven catches for 75 yards with 11 targets. His last score came in his best game (7/66/2) in Week 2. He continues to gain short yards per catch (8.6) over his 15 games with the Vikings. Last year, Hockenson only had one catch for 16 yards on one target vs. the Bears. 

Chicago ranks 24th in tight end fantasy defense (34/282/2 on 40 targets), with Kansas City (8/78/1) and Washington (12/105/1) having the best success. Surprisingly, the Bears had the best defense against tight ends (56/596/8 on 82 targets) in 2022.

In his career, Hockenson has 29 catches for 298 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets vs. the Bears. The loss of Justin Jefferson invites more chances and increased defensive attention. He doesn’t project well in Week 6 for his salary. A high-scoring game invites more chances, keeping in the mix at the top end of the tight end pool.

Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

LaPorta has been the best tight end in the league over the first five weeks, highlighted by his success in two games (8/84/1 and 3/47/3). He’s caught 80.6% of…

 

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Justin Fields
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in […]

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level. 

Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:

  • Josh Allen (138.35)
  • Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
  • Jalen Hurts (126.70)
  • Kirk Cousins (122.10)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns. 

The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents. 

Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…

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Patrick Mahomes
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6

October 11, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 Last week’s Bears/Commanders tilt has a lot more offense than projected. That’s a good thing for fantasy football. Speaking of offense, this week’s AFC West battle offers much potential. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6

Last week’s Bears/Commanders tilt has a lot more offense than projected. That’s a good thing for fantasy football. Speaking of offense, this week’s AFC West battle offers much potential. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 6 looks at the Chiefs vs. Broncos game from a fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting lens.

Andy Reid’s defending champions are off to another fast start. Kansas City sits atop the AFC West standings with a 4-1 record. That includes winning four straight after losing in the first Thursday night game of 2023.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are reeling. Sean Payton’s squad sits in the basement of the division at 1-4. There are rumblings that change is on the way in Denver. The Broncos defense has been atrocious and this has been a one-sided rivalry.

Because of that, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites. However, we’ve seen the over/under drop from 51 down to 47.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Denver Broncos 15 13 19 5t 10
Kansas City Chiefs 6 7 12 5t 9

Both teams are above average on offense. However, that is where the similarities end. Denver has allowed 181 points. That is the sixth-most in NFL history through the first five games.

Patrick Mahomes boasts an 11-0 record against the Broncos. Conversely, Denver has allowed an NFL-worst 13 touchdown passes in 2023. It is easy to see why Vegas likes Kansas City in this…

How will Thursday’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game go?

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tyreek hill
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 7, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Wide Receiver Report From 2020 to 2022, eight wide receivers averaged more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Half of these outcomes came from Tyreek Hill (20.57 and 20.43) and Davante Adams (22.46 and 20.25). After […]

Week 5 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

From 2020 to 2022, eight wide receivers averaged more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Half of these outcomes came from Tyreek Hill (20.57 and 20.43) and Davante Adams (22.46 and 20.25). After four weeks this season, eight wideouts stand tall in the land of elite outcomes compared to four running backs. The highest average for a tight end in 2023 is 14.08 fantasy by T.J. Hockenson.

In Week 4, A.J. Brown (38.50), Stefon Diggs (36.00), Nico Collins (35.80), and Puka Nacua (31.30) posted impact games, pushing the season total for wide receivers with more than 30.00 fantasy points to 12 (eight over the past two weeks). Five other wideouts scored between 20.00 and 30.00 fantasy points last week.

Here’s a look at the five scoring wide receivers heading into Week 5:

  • Justin Jefferson (104.30)
  • Keenan Allen (103.45)
  • Tyreek Hill (100.40)
  • Puka Nacua (95.50)
  • Stefon Diggs (94.90)

Here is the Week 5 DFS: Wide Receiver Report. Also, check out this week’s QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,000/FD – $9,400)

Hill saw his three-game scoring streak end last week against Buffalo while seeing only five targets (3/72). In his two starts vs. division opponents, he had eight catches for 122 yards on 14 targets compared to two elite games (11/215/2 and 9/157/1) in his other two matchups. I mentioned in another Hill profile this year that he started 2022 with a rhythm of an elite outcome every other week over the first eight games (8/94, 11/190/2, 2/33, 10/160, 7/47, 12/177, 7/72, and 12/188), something that has repeated out of the gate this season.

The Giants rank better than expected vs. wide receivers (12th – 41/540/4 on 64 targets) over the first month of the season, considering they allow more than 30 points a game with 14 touchdowns. Deebo Samuel (6/129/1) is the only wideout to gain more than 100 yards receiving. Miami will look to take advantage of CB Adoree Jackson (16/236/1 on 24 targets – 14.8 yards per catch per PFF) in this matchup.

Hill brings the explosiveness to the table, and the success of Miami’s run game only helps with his spacing in the secondary. He should bounce back in this game, but follow-through in the second half could be an issue if New York doesn’t put up a fight on the scoreboard. It’s a winning matchup where at least one long touchdown should be expected…

 

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Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane
DFS

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

October 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat […]

Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report

Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.

The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:

  • Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
  • Raheem Mostert (90.40)
  • Kyren Williams (81.60)
  • De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
  • Kenneth Walker (73.60)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)

I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances). 

Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with…

 

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