Fantasy Football: Deal or No Deal Alvin Kamara The Saints’ offense has had many changes in the offseason. It started […]
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: QB Before drafting each fantasy football season, I need to be in tune with the […]
2023 Fantasy Tight End Values It seems like tight ends are becoming more valuable as each fantasy season arrives. Much of that value can be attributed to the lack of depth available throughout the position. Also, many leagues have begun […]
It seems like tight ends are becoming more valuable as each fantasy season arrives. Much of that value can be attributed to the lack of depth available throughout the position. Also, many leagues have begun to mitigate that weakness by rewarding bonus points for tight end receptions.
Regardless of your league’s settings, securing a reliable weekly tight end is a huge advantage in fantasy football. And since there are so few elite options, most fantasy football managers will be searching for the top 2023 fantasy tight end values to target on draft day.
Here are the top-5 2023 fantasy tight end values that you should consider when assembling your roster this summer.
Last year, Travis Kelce (317.3 fantasy points) dominated the tight end pool. He had more than a 100-point edge over the second-best option (T.J. Hockenson – 216.40 fantasy points) while doubling the output of the sixth-ranked (Tyler Higbee – 152.00 fantasy points). Kelce had a floor of 15 fantasy points in 12 of his 17 starts, doubling the second-highest player (George Kittle – 6) in this area. Only three running backs and three wide receivers outscored Kelce in 2022 in PPR formats.
Eight tight end games with 30-plus fantasy points came from the top 12 best players. The TE1s scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 17 times (12 by the top four tight ends). The other remaining options delivered just nine outcomes in this category.
During the year, there were 210 games by tight ends with a floor of 10 fantasy points. Here’s the breakdown by groupings:
Below the top 18 tight ends last season, there were only four games with more than 20 fantasy points – Jordan Akins – 25., Mike Gesicki – 24.9, Mo Alie-Cox – 26.5, Shane Zylstra – 25.6, and Trey McBride – 20.8).
Here’s a look at the week-to-week scores by the top 24 tight ends in 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE 2023 FANTASY TIGHT END VALUES TO TARGET DURING YOUR DRAFT OR AUCTION?
To read Shawn’s favorite tight end values…
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy […]
No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy and safety net.
With so many teams employing committee backfields, selecting your early-round running back’s direct backup makes sense. Whether you play in redraft, bestball, or in high-stakes leagues, knowing the fantasy-relevant handcuff running backs is crucial.
Here are the top 10 fantasy football handcuffs to target in the 2023 draft season.
David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)
With Jahmyr Gibbs added to the Lions’ offense, Montgomery tends to be an afterthought as an RB3 (ranks 29th) in the high-stakes market. Despite being listed as a handcuff back, he will be the early down back for Detroit with value in scoring and catches. Detroit’s running backs gained 2,795 combined yards with 29 scores and 82 catches (31.5 FPPG in PPR formats) in 2022.
Montgomery projects to be a better option than Jamaal Williams (262/1,066/17 with 12 catches for 73 yards) this season. I don’t expect as many touchdowns. But Montgomery will be more active in the passing game. At the very least, Montgomery is a cheat RB2 who should outperform his ADP in 2023.
Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders)
Gibson ended up being a fantasy disappointment in 2022 due to the emergence of Brian Robinson. He rushed for more than 60 yards in only one (18/72) of his 15 matchups while offering only two showings (7/72 and 7/58/1) with more than three catches.
Despite his shortfall, Gibson finished 28th in running back scoring in PPR formats. A new offensive coordinator (Eric Bieniemy) invites more chances for Washington’s running backs in the passing game. Gibson will be a rotational player on early downs, with most of his action coming in the passing game. Pass-catching backs tend to have a higher floor, giving Gibson RB3 status this year…
WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACK HANDCUFFS SHOULD FANTASY DRAFTERS TARGET IN 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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Top Five Wide Receiver Sleepers Today’s high-octane NFL offense has led to an explosion in popularity for wide receivers. As #ZERORB drafting has become all the rage in fantasy football, young wide receivers have developed into the most valuable commodity […]
Today’s high-octane NFL offense has led to an explosion in popularity for wide receivers. As #ZERORB drafting has become all the rage in fantasy football, young wide receivers have developed into the most valuable commodity in many leagues and formats.
It only takes one mock draft to see just how impactful young, productive wideouts have become. However, not all receivers are created equally. Knowing which young pass catcher has the potential to develop into the next elite fantasy WR1 or WR2 is crucial for compiling a championship roster.
Here are the top five wide receiver sleepers that have the potential to break out in 2023.
Anatomy Of A Sleeper WR
In this year’s draft class, many NFL teams scoured the talent pool at wide receiver looking for the next quick undersized player looking for the next Tyreek Hill (5’10” and 185 lbs.), Antonio Brown (5’10” and 195 lbs.), or even DeVonta Smith (6’0” and 170 lbs.). The goal is to find a difference-maker with the talent to force a defense to defend the whole field.
Identifying these budding superstar wideouts has never been more important to succeed in fantasy football. Here are some quick data to show the wide receiver dropdowns from 2020 to 2022:
Note: The above data is from PPR formats.
Each NFL season, there is a fluctuation of touchdowns scored either via the pass or the run. In 2020, receivers caught 871 touchdowns (most in NFL history), with a pullback to 840 scores in 2021 despite each team playing one more game. Subsequently, last season, scoring was down across the board, leading to only 750 passing touchdowns. This regression came from 15 teams tossing 20 or fewer scores.
Also, here are the running and passing stats from 2010 to 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE WIDE RECEIVER SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day. Knowing […]
No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day.
Knowing how to appropriately value quarterbacks can be a huge edge on draft day. Targeting the best value on the board while loading up on skill position depth is a surefire way to assemble a championship squad.
Here are the top five fantasy quarterback values to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.
What We Learned in 2022
In 2022, in four-point passing touchdown leagues, Patrick Mahomes (7), Josh Allen (7), and Jalen Hurts (8) scored 30 fantasy points or more in their 48 starts. The top 12 quarterbacks posted 40 of the possible 52 impact games, with Joe Burrow (4) and Daniel Jones (3) ranking third and fourth. There were eight quarterback scores higher than 40 fantasy points – Josh Allen (40.40), Joe Burrow (44.05), Tom Brady (42.00), Justin Fields (43.95 and 42.05), Tua Tagovailoa (45.55), and Lamar Jackson (45.80 and 42.60).
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (no game in Week 17) scored 20 or more fantasy points in 30 of their 33 starts, giving them a high floor in 90.9% of their starts. Jalen Hurts finished with the highest impact ratio (53.3% – he scored more than 30 fantasy points in eight of his 15 matchups).
Eight quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 29.99 fantasy points in at least eight games. Kirk Cousins led the way with nine, but he posted only one impact game (39.00). Derek Carr was the lowest ranking (16th) in this grouping.
Joe Burrow had a 20-point floor in 75.0% of his 16 starts (canceled game in Week 17) while playing without his top two wideouts for the better part of six games.
Eighty-three of the 173 quarterback scores (48%) between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points came from the top 12 ranked quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at the data for the top 24 quarterbacks in 2022…
WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE VALUE QBS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?
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2023 Seattle Seahawks Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Seattle Seahawks Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Geno Smith
Smith had a 13-21 record over his eight years in the NFL after getting drafted in the second round in 2013. He has more interceptions (37) than touchdowns (34). Over his first two seasons, Smith chipped in on the ground (72/366/6 and 59/238/1).
When asked to start in 2021 with Russell Wilson injured, Smith passed 702 yards with five touchdowns and one interception over four games. His completion rate (68.4) was the best of his career while gaining 7.4 yards per pass attempt. He added nine rushes for 42 yards and one score.
Smith handled himself well with the keys to the Seahawks’ offense in 2022. He gained 4,748 combined yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 69.8% of his passes. Smith finished fifth in quarterback scoring (361.80) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. Also, he scored more than 25.00 fantasy points in four games, highlighted by one impact game (369 combined yards with three scores). Smith passed for 300 yards in four matchups (325/2, 320/2, 328/2, and 367/3).
Fantasy Outlook: The Seahawks rewarded him with a three-year deal worth $75 million in March. Seattle has two established top-tier wideouts, an intriguing rookie wide receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), and a viable option at tight end. I’m not a fan of the Seahawks’ offensive line, but Smith has the tools to repeat his success. My starting point is 4,500 combined yards with 30 scores.
Drew Lock
Over three seasons with Denver, Lock went 8-13 with 30 combined touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Teddy Bridgewater beat him out for the starting job in 2021. Also, Lock battled a shoulder issue late in the season.
In his short career, his completion rate (59.3) and yards per pass attempt (6.7) ranked poorly, with some help in the run game (72/285/5). Lock gained over 300 passing yards three times in his 21 career starts.
When at his best in 2017 at Missouri, he passed for 3,964 yards over 13 starts with 44 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
In his first year with Seattle, Lock didn’t take a snap.
Fantasy Outlook: Another season of holding a clipboard looks to be in the cards for Lock in 2023.
Other Options: Holton Ahlers
— Running Backs —
The Seahawks’ running back gained 2,162 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and 68 catches (20.60 FPPG in PPR formats) last year. They finished with similar touches (425) as in 2021 (420). Their opportunity in the passing game ranked poorly in back-to-back years (59/462/0 and 68/485/1).
Kenneth Walker III
After two quiet seasons at Wake Forest (217/1,158/17 with six catches for 47 yards), Walker pushed his game higher after transferring to Michigan State. He gained 1,725 combined yards with 19 touchdowns and 13 catches in 2021. His best success came in three matchups (23/264/4, 29/233/1, and 23/197/5).
Walker did an excellent job mixing up his run cadence in his final season in college. When asked to fire up the middle, he had the vision and speed to create big plays. At the same time, he would delay his forward motion to help his blockers possibly create running lanes. On some runs, Walker has the quickness and burst to get himself out of jail in tight quarters.
His willingness to retreat on a lost play and reverse direction led to some success at Michigan State, but this thought process could kill some drives in the NFL if Walker takes significant losses. He’s had limited chances in the passing game, but his game may improve in this area over time. However, Walker did get a negative grade in his pass protection skill, pointing to an early-down role early in his career.
After a limited role over the first four games (15/58 with six catches for 14 yards) in his rookie year, Walker shined over the following five weeks (96/512/7 with six catches for 34 yards). He lost momentum from Week 10 to Week 14 (39/126/2 – 3.2 yards per rush with 11 catches for 100 yards) while missing one game with an ankle issue. His season ended with three productive outcomes (26/107, 23/133, and 29/113 with four combined catches for 17 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: Walker finished 18th in running back scoring (203.20 FPPG) in PPR formats while playing well in only half of his games. Seattle added running back depth in the offseason, inviting more competition for touches. His blocking was a liability in 2022, pointing to fewer chances on passing downs this year. On a path for 275 touches for 1,300 yards with 10 touchdowns and 20 catches. Walker ranks 15th at running back in the early draft season.
Over the last two seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet played at a high level, leading to…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE SEAHAWKS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Brock Purdy
Over four seasons at Iowa, Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
Injuries at quarterback last season gave Purdy their starting job in Week 13. Over his eight games, he went 8-0 with 1,854 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Purdy completed 66.8% of his passes with elite yards per pass attempt (8.4). His impact showing came in the first game in the postseason (348 yards and four scores). When him behind center, San Fran averaged 27.5 passes.
His season ended in the Super Bowl due to an ACL injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February. Baseball players need 18 months to recover fully from these types of injuries. The 49ers believe he has a shot to be ready for Week 1.
Fantasy Outlook: His success in 2022 (172.2 fantasy points in a four-point passing touchdown league) projected over 17 games ranked Purdy as a top-10 quarterback.
Jody Smith: Purdy has returned to the 49ers and is taking the majority of first-team reps. Also, Kyle Shanahan has praised Purdy’s leadership and rehab. That puts the sophomore signal caller in-line to be the club’s starter in Week One. View Purdy as an upside QB2 with a targetable discount ADP.
Trey Lance
With the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers invested in Lance. His natural comparison would be Lamar Jackson by stats, but Lance can’t match his top-end speed or arm strength. He plays with his eyes up when breaking the pocket while featuring an explosive gear when turning a run-up field. My comp was closer to Deshaun Watson in overall look.
Lance needs more experience reading defenses and will be tested as a passer at the next level. His challenge will come in defeating coverage in the deep passing game, as his reads will invite runs before a wide receiver breaks free over the long field.
Lance came to the NFL with one starting season on his resume in college. In his sophomore year in 2019, he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns while not throwing an interception. Also, Lance was a beast on the ground (169/1,100/14), setting up an intriguing NFL career. Back in 2020, North Dakota State canceled the football season after one game, leading to him entering the draft. His style of play fits well in the 49ers’ offense. They want to control the line of scrimmage with a dominant run game while offering an exciting combination of receivers at wide receiver and tight end.
In six games of action in his rookie season, he gained 771 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Lance saw 2022 end after 82 snaps over two games due to a broken right ankle. He struggled in his only complete game (164/0 with 13 rushes for 54 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: The spring reports have been positive, pointing to Lance fighting for the 49ers’ starting quarterback job. Brock Purdy is trending toward being ready for Week 1. San Francisco has a challenging decision in 2023, but Lance has to prove he can win games in the NFL before regaining the starting job.
Other Options: Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen
Update: Brock Purdy has returned to the lineup. Also, some reports indicate that Lance has slipped to third on the depth chart. Plus, the 49ers reportedly have received “substantial” trade inquiries for Lance. Other Opt
— Running Backs —
The 49ers’ running backs scored 73 touchdowns over the past three seasons. The addition of Christian McCaffrey led to new tops in all categories except for rushing touchdowns (18) last year. They gained 3,050 combined yards with 24 scores and 87 catches (31.53 FPPG in PPR formats). Their backs have had more than 500 touches each season from 2020 and 2022.
Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey led fantasy leagues in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2). In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10 catches or more in five games.
He averaged 28.7 touches per game (30.13 FPPG) in 2020 while missing 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries. In 2021, McCaffrey played well over his seven starts (785 combined yards with two touchdowns and 37 catches). His regression in scoring led to 18.21 FPPG with a step down in touches (19.4 per week) due to his injuries (hamstring and ankle).
After missing 24 games in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey played the entire season last year, leading to 1,880 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 85 catches. In his 13 full games with the 49ers, he averaged 22.34 FPPG while averaging 19.5 touches. His best two showings in fantasy points came in Week 8 (40.60) and Week 17 (31.30).
Fantasy Outlook: With the risk factor a little further in the background and another stellar season on his resume, McCaffrey has a bright shade of green next to his name on the draft sheet. San Francisco features their running back position in their offense, and they have the best option in the league in the starting lineup. McCaffrey is a top-three player drafted in 2023. His floor, with 17 games played, should be 350 touches for 1,900 yards with 17 touchdowns and 90 catches.
Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers’ offense.
For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers’ backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 matchups during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) and a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 starts (including the playoffs). Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues.
Last year, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.
Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco would love Mitchell to stay healthy, and…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE NINERS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Matthew Stafford
Over the five seasons before landing in Los Angeles, Stafford had a league-average feel at quarterback. He tossed 119 touchdowns and 46 interceptions over 72 games while averaging 265.7 passing yards.
Stafford matched his career-high in touchdowns (41) in 2021 with success in his completion rate (67.2). The Rams gave him the receiver talent to challenge defenses deep in the passing game, leading to a league-high 18 completions over 40 yards. He finished with over 300 yards passing in nine of his 20 matchups (including playoffs) and nine games with three scores or more in the regular season. Stafford offered no fantasy help in the run game (32/43).
Last season over nine starts, he delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but Stafford had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams have the mystique of being a top offensive team since the arrival of Sean McVay, but I sense 2021 will be the outlier season for Stafford. His offensive line is loaded with question marks. His top receiver comes off a significant injury, and Los Angeles lacks top-level receiving depth behind Cooper Kupp. I see a league-average passer with only matchup value if this offense plays above my outlook in 2023. Stafford will find a way to pass for 4,000 yards with only about 25 scores if Kupp regains his previous form.
Stetson Bennett
Over the past two seasons at Georgia, Bennett passed for 6,986 yards with 56 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his 29 starts. He averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt while adding some help in the run game (113/464/11). Last year, he gained 4,332 combined yards with 37 touchdowns. Bennett comes off two national championships with a 28-1 record in 2021 and 2022.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rams will give him every opportunity to win their backup job in his rookie season.
Other Options: Brett Rypien, Dresser Winn
— Running Backs —
The only bright spot from the Rams’ running backs last year was their 15 touchdowns. They had further regression in their rushing attempts (356), rushing yards (1,493), yards per rush (4.2), catches (49), targets (63), and receiving touchdowns (0). Their backs accounted for 14.1% of the team’s completions and 10% of their receiving yards. Their running backs gained 1,854 combined yards with 15 scores and 49 catches (19.0 FPPG) in PPR formats.
Cam Akers
Over the first 11 weeks in 2020, Akers offered emptiness in the fantasy market leading to 228 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 53 touches while missing two games with a rib injury. However, he flashed in Week 12 (9/84/1), creating a starting job down the stretch. From Week 13 through the second round of the playoffs, the Rams gave Akers 23.8 touches per start over six games. He gained 708 combined yards with three scores and 11 catches, highlighted by two matchups (194 combined yards with two catches and 176 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches). He missed Week 16 with an ankle issue.
Unfortunately, an Achilles injury before the 2021 season led to only eight touches in Week 18 for 13 yards with three catches. The Rams tried to get Akers going in the postseason, but he struggled in the run game (54/151/0 – 2.8 yards per carry) while picking up five catches for 62 yards. He also battled a shoulder issue in the playoffs.
Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final there matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles spoke highly about Akers this spring, suggesting he’ll have an active role in their offense. His finish to 2022 does point to upside this year, but the Rams still don’t throw enough passes to running backs, and their offensive line won’t be an edge. Akers projects as a backend RB2 while ranking 23rd at running back in the high-stakes market. My quick math points to 275+ touches for 1,200 combined yards with six to eight scores and…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAMS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Arizona Cardinals Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Kyler Murray
After an excellent season in 2020 (4,790 combined yards with 37 touchdowns), Murray missed three matchups midseason with an ankle issue that lingered for the remainder of the year. Also, he had regression rushing the ball (88/423/5 – 133/819/11 in 2020). However, his completion rate (69.2) and yards per pass attempt (7.9) were career highs. Murray started the year with two impact games (37.45 and 39.10 fantasy points in four-point passing), followed by four steady showings (22.70, 25.30, 28.05, and 25.05 fantasy points) over the next five weeks. Over his final six starts, he passed for 1,511 yards and three touchdowns with a rebound in explosiveness in the run game (39/276/2).
Last season, Murray had a dull feel over his first seven starts, leading to one impact game (305 combined yards with two touchdowns) and two steady showing in fantasy points (22.55 and 25.95) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. After an uptick in production in Week 8 (362/3). However, he missed seven of their next nine games with a hamstring issue and a torn ACL in his left knee. His best value as a runner came over his final five full starts (38/382/1). Murray didn’t have a completion of 40 yards or more while gaining a career-low 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
Fantasy Outlook: His left knee surgery came on January 4th, putting him behind schedule for the start of the season. In addition, Murray will be less active as a runner in his first few games when he returns to game action. In the high-stakes market, Murray is the 20th quarterback drafted. However, Arizona didn’t improve their receiving corps in the offseason, making it difficult to trust their star quarterback in the fantasy market. In the first run of the projections, I’ll have Murray out for four weeks with a step back in value in the run game. His summer news will dictate his ultimate fantasy value in 2023.
Clayton Tune
Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. Also, he was active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
Fantasy Outlook: Tune improved each year in college. As a matter of fact, his style of play has more overlap than Colt McCoy with Kyler Murray, but I doubt Arizona will roll out a rookie quarterback in September.
Other Options: Colt McCoy, David Blough, Jeff Driskel
— Running Backs —
The Cardinals’ running backs posted lower stats across the board in 2022, with the exception of targets (112). They gained 1,926 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 84 catches, leading to 20.86 FPPG in PPR formats. However,their backs had a regression of 56 touches.
James Conner
From 2018 to 2020, with a starting job in Pittsburgh, Conner missed 12 games, leading to a challenging player to manage in the fantasy market. He played well in 2018 (1,370 yards with 13 touchdowns and 55 catches over 13 games. As a matter of fact, his success placed him sixth in running back scoring (282.00 fantasy points) in PPR leagues.
In 2021, in a split role for the Cardinals, Conner gained only 3.7 yards per rush, with three of his 202 carries gaining 20 yards or more. He made the best of his opportunity by scoring 15 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Conner looked more explosive (10.1 yards per catch) with an exceptional catch rate (94.9).
However, most of his success catching the ball came over four matchups (5/77/1, 5/37, 9/94, and 6/41/1) over the second half of the year. Conner gained over 60 yards in only five contests in the running game. His best value rushing the ball came from Week 9 to Week 13 (72/272/4).
Last season, he finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18 with a shin injury. But, from Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
Fantasy Outlook: Conner ranks 24th running back in high-stakes drafts. Over the past two seasons, he averaged 16.7 touches with Arizona. At the minimum, Arizona should give him the ball 15 times a game in 2023, with 25% of his chances coming in receptions. On the downside, Conner typically misses about three games a year.
Over four seasons in college, Ingram worked in a split role. He finished with a high catch rate (87.3), leading to 89 catches for 671 yards and six touchdowns. Ingram offered change-of-pace value in the run game (495/2,722/16), with the best output coming in 2019 (144/853/7 with 29 catches for 242 yards and three scores.
In his rookie season, the Cardinals gave Ingram 31 touches, leading to 81 yards with one touchdown and four catches. His top output came in Week 7 (9/14/1 and two catches for 23 yards).
Fantasy Outlook: The running back depth behind James Conner is uninspiring, pointing to Ingram having a clear path to
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CARDINALS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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