ACES
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- Madison Bumgarner (Giants) @COL, vs. STL
- Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) vs. STL, vs. SD
- Corey Kluber (Indians) @KC, vs. OAK
- Max Scherzer (Nationals) vs. BOS, vs. MIA
GREEN LIGHT
Luis Castillo (Reds) vs. CWS, @CHC
Castillo has been disappointing. He hasn’t come close to his lofty ADP. He has one good matchup and a tougher one against the Cubs. He’s not a must-start. He’s on the lower tier of this group. A 1.85 HR/9 and 38.5 percent hard-hit rate have been a problem.
Nate Eovaldi (Rays) @MIA, @NYM
Eovaldi has a 4.08 ERA, but a 0.82 WHIP in 35.1 innings. He has allowed eight home runs. The matchups are favorable.
Jake Flaherty (Cardinals) @ARI, @SF
After he dominated the Brewers by allowing one hit and striking out 13 in seven innings, he followed up with six hits, four runs, two walks and two home runs in four innings against the Indians. The rookie has been impressive with a 2.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 29.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate.
Michael Fulmer (Tigers) @CHC, vs. TEX
Fulmer has been decent with a 4.20 ERA but has three wins, and the Tigers are starting to lose more games.
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Domingo German (Yankees) vs. ATL, @TOR
German is prone for blowups, but he’s capable of getting strikeouts and is always a good shot for wins on the Yankees. He allowed six runs and nine hits over three innings in his last start against the Rays. The previous three starts, he allowed 12 hits, seven runs with a 28:2 K:BB ratio over 19 innings.
Kyle Gibson (Twins) @MIL, vs. BAL
Gibson has improved by increasing his strikeouts and cutting down on home runs. He’s 2-6 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and ten percent walk rate. He has a good shot to win against the Orioles.
Junior Guerra (Brewers) vs. MIN, vs. ATL
Guerra has kept his team in games. He has a 3.05 ERA and has seen an increase in his velocity.
Andrew Heaney (Angels) @SEA, vs. LAD
Heaney has had a couple of blowup starts but has been good. He is 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22.3 percent strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate.
Dallas Keuchel (Astros) @TEX, vs. CWS
Keuchel hasn’t pitched as poorly as the surface numbers show. He has a .353 BABIP, 60.8 percent strand rate and 23.8 percent hard-hit rate in June. Keuchel is 4-8 on one of the best teams in baseball. He has a 4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate. He has a 54.2 percent groundball rate and 29.6 percent hard-hit rate.
Carlos Martinez (Cardinals) @ARI, @SF
After walking 15 batters in 16.2 innings since coming off the DL, I was concerned something was still wrong with Martinez. In his last start, he walked one in six innings and allowed six hits, two runs and struck out eight against a good Indians offense.
Rick Porcello (Red Sox) @WAS, @KC
Porcello is 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 22.4 percent strikeout rate, and 5.4 percent walk rate. With the Red Sox offense, he has a good shot at two wins.
Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks) vs. STL, vs. SD
Ray came off the DL Wednesday and allowed two hits, walked two and struck out six over six scoreless innings against the Marlins. I have concerns long-term, but he was invested in heavily and looked sharp in his return.
Clayton Richard (Padres) @ARI, @OAK
In eight of his last ten starts, Richard has allowed three earned runs or fewer. He has pitched at least six innings in ten consecutive starts. He has a 4.29 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 18.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.4 percent walk rate.
Tanner Roark (Nationals) vs. BOS, vs. MIA
After two bad starts, Roark rebounded on Thursday against the Phillies. He pitched six innings and allowed seven hits, one earned run, walked three and struck out five. The start against the Red Sox is tough, but they will be without the DH.
Brent Suter (Brewers) vs. MIN, vs. ATL
Suter hasn’t been dominant, but he has won eight games, and with a good offense and team context, he’s in play. He has a 4.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, a category that goes undervalued. He has a 20 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate. He’s throwing first-pitch strikes 69.4 percent of the time.
Alex Wood (Dodgers) vs. PIT, @LAA
Wood has pitched better than the 4.00 ERA shows and is a good buy low. He has a 22.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.4 percent walk rate and an unlucky 65.2 percent strand rate.
Sean Newcomb (Braves) @NYY, @MIL
RED LIGHT
Kyle Freeland (Rockies) vs. SF, @SEA
Freeland could be used in deeper formats. The start at home is a concern, but he has a 2.95 ERA at home in 36.2 innings. The last time he faced the Giants at home, he allowed eight hits, three runs and two home runs in 5.1 innings on May 29. He has a 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Jakob Junis (Royals) vs. CLE, vs. BOS
While the starts are at home, Junis could get destroyed by the power bats. He has a 2.06 HR/9.
Wade LeBlanc (Mariners) vs. LAA, vs. COL
LeBlanc doesn’t miss many bats, and he has allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts in 10.1 innings. They came to Boston and Baltimore. He has a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and is in play in deeper formats if chasing wins.
Jake Odorizzi (Twins) @MIL, vs. BAL
He is coming off six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts against the White Sox, but he hasn’t pitched well. The Orioles start is appealing but Odorizzi allows 1.47 HR/9, and the start in Milwaukee could ruin the week.
Chris Stratton (Giants) @COL, vs. STL
Stratton has been mediocre and could be fighting for his spot in the rotation. A start in Coors Field doesn’t help.
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Other Red Light Pitchers
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- Austin Bibens-Dirk (Rangers) vs. HOU, @DET
- Ryan Borucki (Blue Jays) vs. DET, vs. NYY
- Wei-Yen Chen (Marlins) vs. TB, @WAS
- Alex Cobb (Orioles) @PHI, @MIN
- Mike Fiers (Tigers) @CHC, vs. TEX
- Lucas Giolito (White Sox) @CIN, @HOU
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins) vs. TB, @WAS
- Anibal Sanchez (Braves) @NYY, @MIL
- James Shields (White Sox) @CIN, @HOU
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