2025 Houston Texans
After winning consecutive AFC South titles in his first two seasons, changes are coming for DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans. A mere months after Bobby Slowik was a hot head coaching candidate, Ryans jettisoned his offensive coordinator after the unit dipped from seventh in passing in 2023 to 23rd.
The offensive line was also a major problem. The Texans allowed the third-most sacks (54) a year ago. Worsening that concern was the club shipping off Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington and signing veteran castoffs to fill in. Second-round OT Aireontae Ersery is enormous and adds some youthful potential to the team’s biggest area of need.
New offensive coordinator Nick Caley was the Rams’ passing game coordinator last season. His biggest task will be to recapture the magic that QB C.J. Stroud had in his 2023 rookie campaign. Stroud’s play regressed last season under Slowik, as constant pressure led to poorer decisions and more turnovers.
Caley will also be dealing with a revamped receiving corps. The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to man the slot. Kirk replaces Stefon Diggs, who departed for New England. No. 1 wideout Nico Collins missed five games but ranked 10th in fantasy points per game. Collins topped 13 PPR points in seven of his final eight games and remains a locked-in WR1.
The Texans also added Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on Day 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft, giving the club a vastly improved supporting cast. Both rookies should see ample playing time as Tank Dell is expected to miss the season.
In the backfield, Joe Mixon’s three-down role looks secure. Mixon topped 1,000 rushing yards and scored a dozen touchdowns in his first season with the club. His 17.2 PPR points per game ranked 10th at running back, and he accumulated that volume despite leading the NFL with (-94) tackle loss yards due to Houston’s haggard O-line. Mixon is a good fit in this scheme and boasts the volume to post fantasy RB1 numbers. Fourth-round USC rookie Woody Marks will contend with Dameon Pierce for backup duties.
Dalton Schultz had his poorest showing at tight end since becoming a starter in 2020. Caley’s background is as a tight ends coach, but he also comes from a Sean McVay system that implemented a committee approach to the position. Houston used a fourth-rounder on Cam Stover in 2024 and ran ’12’ personnel on 31.4 percent of their snaps last season- the fourth-highest rate in football. That makes Schultz merely a middling TE2 option with limited fantasy upside.
Fantasy Grade: B+
After a dynamic debut, C.J. Stroud regressed in his sophomore season. It wasn’t all on Stroud, as he suffered the second-most sacks (52) in the league. But defenses caught up to Stroud, who dropped to 20 touchdowns and jumped from five to 12 picks in Year Two. Reinforcements are on the way. The Texans added OT Aireontae Ersery and a pair of promising Iowa State wideouts (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel) in the 2025 NFL Draft. Houston also brought in Nick Caley from the Rams to run the offense after ranking 27th in pace of play. Stroud should be better in 2025. However, he’s outside QB1 range.
Mills is one of the better backups in the league. However, he has no fantasy value unless C.J. Stroud gets injured. Just a name to keep in mind in deep Superflex leagues.
Despite seeing an average of 6.8 defenders in the box (3rd most) running behind Houston’s 26th-ranked run-blocking line, Joe Mixon ranked 9th in PPR points per game. Mixon topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season and posted seven top-10 fantasy weekly performances. Unfortunately, six of those RB1 outings came in Houston’s first eight games. But Mixon remained a force thanks to his superior volume (77.7 percent opportunity share ranked 7th) and 60 red-zone touches (6th). The Texans added receiving help and worked to improve their beleaguered O-line. Mixon remains a high-end RB2 in 2025. UPDATE: Mixon opened training camp on the non-football injury list. We’ve downgraded his projections.
The Texans signed Chubb to a one-year, $2.5 million deal. Chubb has missed 24 games over the past two seasons, most of which occurred after his second major knee injury. When he did play last year, he had no explosiveness and averaged a career-worst 3.3 yards per tote. Maybe an extra offseason of noted viral workouts will help him regain his form. Joe Mixon is also dealing with injury, so if Chubb can rebound, he could cause the Texans to employ a committee backfield. Finally, view Chubb as a low-risk depth piece in the latter rounds.
ADVICE: Pierce will open the season in his customary spot as Houston’s No. 2 back. However, he could lose snaps to rookie Woody Marks.
ADVICE: Prolific pass-catching back (83 receptions for Mississippi State in 2021) who ran the most routes in college from 2021-2024. He’s also got a compact frame that evokes Maurice Jones-Drew comps. Marks is a change-of-pace option behind Joe Mixon.
Collins had a nice 2024 with 68 catches for 1006 yards and 7 TDs in only 12 games, while ranking second among all wide receivers in yards per route run (2.86). He finished as the WR6 in points per game (14.9), despite missing four games due to a midseason calf injury. WR Tank Dell may miss all of 2025, and WR Stefon Diggs is in New England, leading to more reliance on Nico in the passing game. His strong rapport with C.J. Stroud, especially on deep routes and in the red zone, makes him a high-ceiling asset in one of the league’s top passing offenses.
Since peaking at WR11 in 2022, it’s been a steady decline for Christian Kirk. He averaged 14.3 PPR points in that breakout first year in Jacksonville but dipped to 8.9 points in an injury-abbreviated 2025 season. The Jaguars traded Kirk to Houston, where he’ll get a much-needed fresh start as Houston’s slot receiver. A pending free agent after this season, Kirk can thrive as an underneath target paired with Houston’s sizable perimeter options in Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins. Tank Dell, who is expected to miss this season, averaged 11.8 PPR points per game as the Texans’ main slot threat in 2023.
WR Higgins, Jayden, HOU [WR3] Sleeper
The Texans were light pass-catching weapons and used their first pick (No. 34) on the sizable Iowa State wideout. Higgins (6-4, 216) is as big as Tee Higgins (no relation) and boasted a 94th-percentile Speed Score and 94th-percentile Catch Radius. Per NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, “Smooth but physical in his routes & does a nice job of creating pockets of separation with force/strength. He has mismatch qualities from the slot with body control & a catch radius, making him a menace on jump balls downfield.” Higgins is locked into Houston’s WR2 from Day One, giving him instant value as an upside WR3.
ADVICE: Schultz’s productivity dropped by over 23 percent from his solid 2023 season, including 12 weeks finishing as the TE20 or worse. Now, the Texans added a pair of Iowa State rookie WRs to take more targets away. He’s now an unreliable TE2.
PK Fairbairn, Ka’imi, HOU [PK1]
Fairbairn’s accuracy dipped last season, but he tied his career-high with 42 field goal attempts, resulting in 136 points. Houston should be able to move the ball, and Fairbairn made 93% or better of his field goals in 2022-2023. Faribairn is a solid fantasy option, but not one to go out of your way to target before the final round.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans has turned the Texans into a formidable fantasy stop unit. In 2024, Houston accumulated 49 sacks, forced 29 turnovers, and finished the season as a top-5 stop unit. They also added CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson via trade to boost the secondary. Overall, the Texans should remain a quality fantasy defense with top-5 potential.
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