Week 6 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 6 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight.
My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster. Now that we have five weeks in the books, I can start extrapolating on statistics more reliably.
Young Running Backs and Their Opportunity Status
Chase Brown: Brown again outperformed Zack Moss on the ground in week 5. Moss also got injured and is uncertain if he’ll play in week 6 right now. Brown’s opportunity is here to grow his market share of opportunities in the running game for the Bengals.
Carson Steele: Steele received some short yardage work for the Chiefs in Week 5, but Hunt took over the rushing role with Samaje Perine mixed in on third downs and in the 2-minute offense.
Braelon Allen: The Jets’ rushing attack has stalled the last two weeks. They need to figure out why these two elite running backs behind a seemingly improved offensive line can’t generate yards and the line can’t open up rushing lanes.
Roschon Johnson: Johnson scored on two short-yardage rushing plays this week. He’s far behind D’Andre Swift in the offense which has shifted to using Swift in the passing game where his skill set is best used. Johnson could be a spot starter for you with his role but don’t expect huge fantasy days.
Jaylen Wright: Raheem Mostert returned in Week 5, but Achane went out with an injury. Wright led the backfield in rushing with 86 yards. His numbers seem to improve each week and he had 6.6 yards per carry in week 5. We’ll see if Achane can return during week 6 and what role Wright will have in the backfield. I’m anxious to see how he’s used and how he performs when Tua returns to the QB position here.
Tank Bigsby: Bigsby is playing great this year. He had 13 carries for 101 yards on the ground including 2 TDs. His 7.8 yards per carry is eye-opening. He also had one catch for 28 yards. There are rumors that the Jags have put Travis Etienne on the trade block. If Etienne were to be traded, Bigsby would get a huge usage lift.
Young Breakout Receivers
Second-Year Players
Jayden Reed: Week 5 saw Reed run 75% of the routes and collect 4 receptions for 78 scoreless yards. He added two carries for 19 yards rushing. Reed’s six targets represented a 27% targets per route run performance which is what you want for your starting receivers. His 3.55 yards per route run was elite. Adding a touchdown to his performance would have been nicer, of course, but the advanced metrics continue to point to Reed being a player you want in re-draft and dynasty.
Rashee Rice: We now have the results of the preliminary surgery, and it sounds like Rice has a six-month recovery ahead of him, but the prognosis for him to return to form is good. Unfortunately, it looks like we now are on suspension watch for 2025 with Rice as his 2024 time is done.
Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks did not put in a fantasy day to remember to write home about, but his underlying metrics were strong. He didn’t get to the coveted 70% route participation rate; he came in at 62%. He did have a 33% targets per route run. Unfortunately, he only caught two of the targets as he leads the receivers in drops so far this year. That yielded a disappointing 1.11 yards per route run performance. He’s getting open, he needs to correct those drops to become a staple in people’s lineups.
Zay Flowers: Flowers delivered in week 5 running 85% of the routes while earning a 30% targets per route run metric and 2.78 yards per route run. These are all solid numbers that contributed to his seven-catch, 111-yard day. Flowers is likely a matchup play based on expected game script. Against teams that the Ravens will likely attack with Derrick Henry and the running game, Flowers’ output might be muted. But, if they are likely to be more pass-heavy, Flowers is the focal point of the attack.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN delivered four receptions for 31 yards and a TD vs the Giants in Week 5. He only achieved a 16% targets per route run and 0.72 yards per route run. The TD saved his fantasy day. There will be better matchups for JSN going forward.
Jordan Addison: The Vikings struggled against the Jets in London. Addison only managed three receptions for 38 yards on eight targets. He participated in 91.6% of the routes and earned a 25% targets per route run rating. Unfortunately, the Jets held him to 1.06 yards per target. The Jets have potentially the top pair of cornerbacks in the league. Better days will come.
Josh Downs: Downs flourished with Joe Flacco under center. He was third on the team with a 68% route participation and earned a 35% TPRR rating. He delivered a strong 2.03 yards per route run performance on nine receptions for 69 yards.
Adonai Mitchell: Mitchell is a good dynasty asset, but is currently buried on the depth chart in Indy. With Anthony Richardson at QB, there isn’t the volume. But, Mitchell may eventually fight his way into a stronger share of routes and if QB play is more traditional, his underlying metrics are tough to ignore. In Week 5, he had 58% targets per route run and 3.18 yards per route run. Unfortunately, he only ran 24% of the routes.
Demario Douglas: Douglas was second to Polk with a 75.7% route participation rate. He had a 32% TPRR and a 2.16 yards-per route run performance. Drake Maye will start in Week 6 so this passing offense may improve. But the offensive line still is sub-optimal and the schedule is difficult the next few weeks.
Tank Dell: Dell is still underwhelming fantasy managers with a 13% TPRR and 1.37 YPRR performance despite Nico Collins missing most of the game.
Quentin Johnston: Johnson was on BYE during week 5
Alec Pierce: Pierce continued with his game-breaking plays. He only earned 8% targets per route run as he’s mostly a stretch-the-field receiver right now. But he turned in 134 yards on only threee receptions for 3.62 yards per route run. He’s boom or bust each week but seems to be an important piece to the offense to keep the safeties back.
Rookies
Malik Nabers: Nabers was still recovering from the concussion that knocked him out of week 4. He’s expected back in Week 6.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: Harrison turned in a 23% TPRR rating along with a 1.44 yards per route run performance in Week 5. Harrison is playing well enough to be in your lineups but will turn in some sub-optimal weeks. He’s averaging 13.76 fantasy points per game which isn’t what you expected from your second-round draft pick.
Brian Thomas Jr.: Thomas was dominant again in Week 5 turning in 30% TPRR and 4.56 YPRR. He’s the No. 1 in the offense. He’s averaging 16.2 ppg for fantasy owners which only trails Malik Nabers amongst the rookie receivers.
Xavier Worthy: Worthy’s touchdowns (including two rushing) this year are keeping his fantasy prospects alive. He has an 11.58 ppg average. That’s roughly what he scored in Week 5 with a 19% TPRR and 0.81 YPRR. He drew a deep pass interference call and he and Patrick Mahomes failed to connect on another deep pass. Everyone is awaiting his true breakout game. He salvaged a disastrous outing with a three-yard rushing TD for fantasy owners.
Ja’Lynn Polk: Polks’ participated in 85% of the routes for a 19% TPRR and a 0.41 YPRR. His performances may improve with the upcoming switch to Drake Maye in Week 6 but don’t expect a huge jump over the next three weeks with the schedule they’re facing.
Jordan Whittington: With Kupp out again in Week 5, Whittington earned a 24% TPRR and 2.17 YPRR. Whittington looks like the No. 1 receiver until Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua return to this offense.
Young Tight Ends
Brock Bowers: In Week 5, with Davante Adams OUT, Bowers dominated the game with 39% TPRR and 3.18 YPRR. He’s officially a high-end TE1 already in his rookie year. Congratulations to all those who drafted him.
Tucker Kraft: Kraft followed up his Week 4 breakout with a Week 5 gem. He earned 19.2% TPRR and 4.36 YPRR. This was highlighted by a 70-yard TD and has a firm lock on the TE 1 role for the Packers. He’s moved his average up to 11.16 ppg after two strong outings. He’s going to be a fixture in lineups if this continues.
