Lucky number 13. There’s just something about that number that will undoubtedly leave people feeling like they were cursed or unlucky this week. I’m an analyst, so numbers are just that to me- numbers.
At the same time, I do understand why people feel that way.
No joke, I almost always seem to be in at least two leagues where I give up the most points. Just one of those unlucky turns of the random schedule, but there’s no way it should happen this often. My team has given up the most points in my Scott Fish Bowl league for the third consecutive season. I’m still going to make the playoffs, but c’mon.
The reality is most things are just random, or a coincidence, and our brains are programmed to look for patterns or the easiest way to explain things that seem irrational. Like Occam’s razor for the mind.
To succeed in this line of work you have to put aside bias and find data that correlates conclusions. This often contradicts simple explanations like being unlucky, cursed, or having the football gods get involved.
Yeah, I know it’s more fun to blame things out of your control because there’s no way you could randomly have so many things go against you. Probably just a product of today- where facts are subjective and opinions are often simply based on who yells the loudest instead of any actual proof.
What’s luck got to do with it?
As much as I’m a realist in football, I firmly believe in superstitions for baseball. I do not handle adversity well when I’m watching the Astros. During the 2017 World Series, I missed Game 5 after the boys got down 4-0 because I was too mad. I missed an amazing comeback and game but it was probably for the best. I’m not sure I could have handled those momentum swings.
My most recent Astros game I attended was during the 2019 Division series, where I walked out of the stadium and Ubered home without telling my friends simply because Houston’s closer loaded the bases in the ninth.
I was actually so upset I Ubered to the wrong house and had to get another ride.
Anyway, yet, I will keep doing the same things when it involves the Astros, so it’s ok to embrace a little bit of superstition, I suppose.
How else do you explain constantly losing games where you’re the second-highest scoring team in your league and just happen to be playing the highest scorer?
Or entering Week 13 with a 4-8 record but ranking third in overall scoring?
The solution to this one is actually easy. The final playoff spot in your league should go to the highest-scoring remaining team, regardless of record.
How do you explain a week where Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, and Gardner Minshew were all top-10 fantasy quarterbacks ahead of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes?
That ain’t bad luck. That’s just….well, I don’t know what that was.
Where We Were Right
It was a good running back week for the projections. Jonathan Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, and Javonte Williams were all top-8 options in our PPR rankings and that’s where they all finished. We were also higher than the consensus on Josh Jacobs, Devonta Freeman, and Sony Michel, who all finished inside the top-20.
Chris Godwin was our No. 2 wide receiver and he more than delivered, leading the league in targets (17), receptions (15), and racking up 143 receiving yards against the hapless Falcons.
And having a few weeks off and lousy weather didn’t deter us from ranking Kyler Murray as about top signal-caller for Week 13. Entering Monday night, that’s precisely where Murray is after supplementing modest passing stats with 59 yards and a pair of scores on the ground. Murray looked as fast as ever taking off and running on a wet field and staked his claim to be a real difference-maker just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Where We Were Wrong
We knew after Thursday that Dak Prescott was going to be a miss. The Cowboys won and covered that game rather easily but that had more to do with their defense than anything that Prescott did. We ranked him as a top-5 option for the slate but Prescott wound up producing fewer fantasy points than Andy Dalton. Now that’s bad luck.
As solid as the running back rankings were, tight end was less spectacular. Top-10 options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts all finished outside of the top-15 and failed to get into the end zone or exceed 50 receiving yards.
I’ve already hit on Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but the Chiefs really laid an egg on Sunday Night Football. Tyreek Hill has managed to have some huge games against what is usually a stout Denver secondary but it was just another disappointing performance overall for Mahomes and company.
