The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads returns to Kansas Speedway this weekend for the final race of the Round of 12. Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 will also be the ninth race of the season at a mile-and-a-half track, and while we have seen the 2019 rules package throw an occasional curveball to the normally predictable “cookie-cutter” ovals, the big names continue to rise to the top.
The list of the drivers who have scored the most points at the 1.5-mile tracks so far this season reads like a list of championship favorites. Kevin Harvick is the top scorer, and he is followed by Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. If you want to post a big point total in your season-long fantasy leagues this weekend, you will want to lean on the big names and powerhouse teams.
Of course, this can be easier said than done in the Driver Group Game this late in the season since you are probably running low on driver allocations for the top options. This is especially true in the Group B and Group C tiers, but while you might not want to burn up a start from Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson or Alex Bowman, you can still take advantage of their teammates. William Byron, Erik Jones and Aric Almirola are all solid alternatives, and Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez offer serious upside, albeit with some added risk.
The bottom line is that I wouldn’t recommend getting too cute with your fantasy picks this weekend. Kansas and Texas are the two prototypical mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule, and if you are down to your final starts from the top guys, these are the two tracks where I am going to use them.
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1. Kevin Harvick
While he doesn’t have a win, Harvick does lead all drivers with 322 points scored and 430 laps led in the eight races at mile-and-half-tracks this season. He led a race-high 104 laps at Kansas in May and was leading the race when he had to make an unscheduled stop for debris on the grill of the car. In 11 starts at Kansas with Stewart-Haas Racing, he owns a 6.5 average finish and six finishes of third or better. Harvick has also led double-digit laps in 10 of those 11 races, leading 70-plus laps in three straight.
2. Martin Truex Jr.
He is one of two drivers with multiple wins at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, including a win in the most recent race at Las Vegas. For the year, Truex ranks third in points scored in the eight races at mile-and-a-half ovals. He also has four Top 5s in his last five starts at Kansas, sweeping both races here in 2017.
3. Brad Keselowski
Keselowski won the May race at Kansas earlier this year, and he has shown a high ceiling at the 1.5-mile track in general with this rules package. He leads all drivers with five Top 5 finishes in the eight races, and he is one of two drivers with multiple wins.
4. Chase Elliott
He has been steady at the mile-and-a-half ovals in 2019, posting a 9.9 average finish and earning the fourth most points. Elliott has also enjoyed plenty of success at Kansas. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race, but he has three Top 5s in his last four starts here, leading 45 laps and finishing fourth in the spring.
5. Joey Logano
In the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, Logano has earned the second most points, and his 9.6 average finish is tied for the second-best mark in the series. He has also led the second most laps in those races, leading a race-high 105 laps at Las Vegas a few weeks ago. Logano owns a pair of Kansas wins in his career, and he led 100 laps in the fall race last season.
6. Kyle Larson
Larson has been trending in the right direction at the 1.5-mile tracks, posting a 3.7 average finish in the last three races. He has also been on a hot streak at Kansas. He has four Top 10s in his last five starts here, including three straight. Back in the May race at Kansas, Larson gained 27 spots and finished eighth.
7. Kyle Busch
He has been in a little bit of a funk since the playoffs began, but he has been solid at the 1.5-mile ovals in 2019. His five Top 10s in the eight races are tied for the most of any driver, and he has led the third most laps. Busch has also been stout at Kansas. Over the last 10 races here, his six Top 5s and eight Top 10s are both tops in the series, and Busch was running second in the May race earlier this year before a penalty on a late pit stop.
8. Alex Bowman
Bowman has emerged as a fantasy force at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, and his 9.6 average finish in the eight races is tied for second in the series. He has four finishes of seventh or better in the last five races alone, including a win at Chicagoland, and he led 62 laps in a runner-up effort at Kansas back in May and finished sixth at Las Vegas to open the playoffs. I love him as a Group B option in the Driver Group Game this weekend.
9. Denny Hamlin
He is one of the more interesting drivers to evaluate this weekend. Outside of his win at Texas, Hamlin’s finishes have been good, not great, at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He has just three Top 10s in the eight races overall but ranks fifth in points because of his ability to pile up stage points. His fantasy value could fluctuate a bit depending on what stats your league prioritizes.
10. Erik Jones
Jones can be a little more volatile than some of the other top fantasy options, but he has finished seventh or better in five of the eight races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year. He also has three straight finishes of seventh or better at Kansas, including a fourth-place run last fall and a third-place finish this spring. Don’t hesitate to use him as a Group B option in the DGG or as a non-playoff driver in Fantasy Live.
11. Jimmie Johnson
He has been in a slump at Kansas and at 1.5-mile tracks in general coming into the season, but Johnson seems to have turned a corner. He has five finishes of 11th or better in the last six races at mile-and-a-half tracks, including a sixth-place run at Kansas in May. Johnson should continue to be one of the better non-playoff options at Fantasy Live, and he should also be a solid Group B option for the DGG.
12. Kurt Busch
After opening the year with four straight Top 10s at the 1.5-mile tracks, Busch has just one in his last four starts, albeit a win at Kentucky. Still, he finished seventh at Kansas in May and has six Top 10s in his last 10 starts at the track, including three in his last four. Busch offers Top 10 upside as a non-playoff option in Fantasy Live.
13. Ryan Blaney
Blaney hasn’t had the best luck at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, but he has reeled off four straight Top 15s, including a sixth-place finish at Chicagoland and a fifth-place run at Las Vegas in the playoff opener. He’s also been stout at Kansas, finishing seventh or better in five of his eight starts and leading 50-plus laps twice. Blaney is a high-upside option and a great pick for fantasy owners looking to gain ground in their leagues in the final weeks.
14. William Byron
The sophomore has put together a solid resume at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. Byron has a 12.6 average finish in the eight races overall, cracking the Top 20 in every race and logging three Top 10s in his last four starts. Byron has also led laps in six of those eight races. He can be sneaky fantasy play in both season-long and DFS contests.
15. Aric Almirola
Almirola isn’t flashy, but he does have one of the safest floors at the 1.5-mile tracks among the mid-level fantasy options. He has an 11.0 average finish in the eight races this year, and he hasn’t finished worse than 16th. Almirola has finished 12th or better in four straight starts at Kansas, and he should be a low-risk play in season-long contests this weekend.
16. Clint Bowyer
He’s been a high-risk, high-reward option at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, logging four finishes of sixth or better and five Top 15s to go with three finishes of 24th or worse. Bowyer did lead 12 laps and finish fifth at Kansas in May, and the high ceiling should have him in your radar for GPP contests at the DFS sites. Fantasy owners looking to try to make a move in their season-long leagues in the closing weeks may also want to roll the dice on him.
17. Chris Buescher
Buescher has been a DFS juggernaut and the best Group C play in the Driver Group Game at 1.5-mile tracks this year. He has yet to finish outside the Top 20 in eight races, compiling a 13.6 average finish and gaining an average of 10.9 spots per race. Buescher has gained at least eight spots in seven of those starts, and he led 10 laps on his way to a Top 10 at Kansas earlier this year.
18. Daniel Suarez
Consistency has been a huge issue for Suarez all year, but he has shown more upside than a lot of the other middle-tier drivers. He has three Top 10s in the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks, and he led 52 laps at Kentucky and 29 laps at Las Vegas in the two most recent races. I think he is best suited as a GPP option at the DFS sites.
19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
It has been a surprisingly solid year for Stenhouse at the 1.5-mile tracks, and he has compiled a 13.2 average finish in the eight races, finishing 12th or better five times. One of his best runs came at Kansas in May when he led 11 laps and finished 11th. He has some sleeper potential in season-long leagues, but Stenhouse is probably most valuable as a DFS option this weekend.
20. Ryan Newman
Newman hasn’t been dominant at the 1.5-mile tracks by any means, but he does have a couple of Top 10s and a 15.4 average finish in the eight races, and he has only finished worse than 17th in two of those starts. Newman won’t be a major difference-maker for a fantasy lineup, but he should challenge for a Top 15.
21. Paul Menard
Although he doesn’t have a Top 10 at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, Menard does have a 16.5 average finish in the eight races. He also has five Top 15s in those starts, but his worst finish did come at Kansas when he finished 24th. I think he will be a Top 20 option Sunday, but his mid-pack ceiling makes him more of a cash option at the DFS sites than a season-long play.
22. Matt DiBenedetto
It has been a rough year for DiBenedetto at the mile-and-a-half tracks overall, and he owns an ugly 26.5 average finish in the eight races. He has been on the uptick, finishing 16th at Kentucky and 21st at Las Vegas in the playoff opener, but I sill think you are better off saving him for another week in the Driver Group Game.
23. Austin Dillon
He’s struggled with consistency at the 1.5-mile ovals this year, but he has shown some signs of life recently with a pair of Top 12 finishes in the last three races. Dillon has also finished 17th or better in seven straight starts at Kansas. A Top 20 run is certainly possible this weekend, but I still view Dillon as a roll-of-the-dice option for fantasy purposes.
24. Ty Dillon
His 25.4 average finish at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year leaves a lot to be desired, but Dillon is in the middle of his best stretch of the year, notching Top 20s in seven of the last eight races and finishing 16th at Las Vegas in the playoff opener. If you have burned up all your starts from Chris Buescher, Dillon is a decent Group C alternative for the DGG.
25. Daniel Hemric
It has been a rough rookie year for Hemric, and he hasn’t shown much upside at the 1.5-mile tracks. On the plus side, his best finish at a mile-and-a-half oval came last time out at Las Vegas when he finished 17th, and his second-best run came at Kansas in May when he finished 18th. Hemric could deliver a Top 20 this weekend, and you could do a lot worse when hunting for Group C options in the Driver Group Game.
26. David Ragan
His value is limited to DFS contests, but if Ragan starts deep in the field, he has potential as a low-priced source of cap relief. He has a 23.1 average finish in the eight races at 1.5-mile ovals this year, finishing 23rd or better in three of the last four races.
27. Bubba Wallace
You know what you are going to get with Wallace when you come to a mile-and-a-half track, but unfortunately for fantasy purposes, you are going to get a finish outside the Top 20. He has finished between 23rd and 25th in the last four races at 1.5-mile ovals and between 23rd and 29th in all eight. There’s just no upside here.
28. Ryan Preece
His rookie year has a left a lot to be desired, and Preece has really struggled at the mile-and-a-half tracks. He owns a 26.8 average finish in the eight races overall, and his best finish was a 21st-place run at Kentucky. Barring a horrendous qualifying effort, I don’t anticipate using Preece this weekend in any fantasy format.
29. Michael McDowell
McDowell has compiled a 24.9 average finish in the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2019. A starting spot outside the Top 30 could give him some DFS appeal, but he would still be a shot-in-the-dark play.
30. Corey LaJoie
He has a 25.5 average finish at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, but that number is propped up a bit by a surprise 12th-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. LaJoie has finished between 27th and 30th in six of the eight races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year, and that’s more in line with what to expect Sunday.
