2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Betting Odds: Fernando Mendoza Massive Favorite
Written by Frank Taddeo @RespectedMoney on X
With the Seattle Seahawks dominant Super Bowl LX victory in the books, it is now time for NFL fans and fantasy football managers to turn their attention to the 2026 NFL Draft.
Our “Vegas vs Fulltime Projections”, focusing on data analytics exclusive to FullTime premium members, finished up +21.23 units on the 2025 NFL season!
History tells us that quarterbacks typically have an advantage over other positions when it comes to being the top overall draft pick. Dating back to 2000, 19 quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 overall in the NFL draft.
Quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall (2000–2025):
- 2001: Michael Vick (Falcons)
- 2002: David Carr (Texans)
- 2003: Carson Palmer (Bengals)
- 2004: Eli Manning (Chargers, traded to Giants)
- 2005: Alex Smith (49ers)
- 2007: JaMarcus Russell (Raiders)
- 2009: Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- 2010: Sam Bradford (Rams)
- 2011: Cam Newton (Panthers)
- 2012: Andrew Luck (Colts)
- 2015: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- 2016: Jared Goff (Rams)
- 2018: Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- 2019: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- 2020: Joe Burrow (Bengals)
- 2021: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
- 2023: Bryce Young (Panthers)
- 2024: Caleb Williams (Bears)
- 2025: Cam Ward (Titans)
Travon Walker (2022, Jaguars), Myles Garrett (2017, Browns), Jadeveon Clowney (2014, Texans), Mario Williams (2006, Texans) and Courtney Brown (2000, Browns) are the only defensive players to earn the distinguished honor over that span. On the offensive side of the ball, Eric Fisher (2013, Chiefs) and Jake Long (2008, Dolphins) are the only non-quarterback players to get tabbed No. 1 overall.
The draft order for the first 30 picks are set ahead of #SBLX.
NFL Scouting Combine: February 23 – March 2 (Indianapolis, IN)
NFL Draft: April 23-25 (Pittsburgh, PA) pic.twitter.com/ED8GcdeMfJ
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) January 26, 2026
As of now, the betting market for the 2026 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick lists Indiana star signal-caller Fernando Mendoza as the top overall betting favorite at prohibitive odds of -7000.
Current No. 1 Overall Betting Odds (DraftKings)
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana): -10000
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss): +4500
- Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE, Miami): +5000
- Arvell Reese (LB/EDGE, Ohio State): +6000
- Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama): +9000
- Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State): +10000
- Keldric Faulk (DE, Auburn): +12000
- David Bailey (LB, EDGE, South Carolina): +12000
- Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State): +12000
- Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): +12000
Overwhelming Prohibitive Betting Favorite
QB, Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
The Heisman Trophy winner led Indiana to a historic national championship season. Mendoza’s 6-5, 225 lbs frame, combined with his accuracy, arm talent, and leadership have many pundits and oddsmakers convinced that the Las Vegas Raiders will select him first overall.
New head coach Klint Kubiak’s biggest focus will be re-building a Raiders offense that finished last in total offense and scoring. In his first season with the Silver and Black veteran QB Geno Smith was a complete bust, throwing a league-high 17 interceptions.
We will have a full breakdown of the fantasy impact of Mendoza joining a Raiders offense that already consists of young studs Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers here at Fulltime Fantasy leading up to the NFL Draft!
The Raiders’ offense could look scary next season under new HC Klint Kubiak AND the No. 1 overall pick in the draft 😈
Will they select the Heisman and Natty winner Fernando Mendoza to team up with Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers? 🎰 pic.twitter.com/iNI3acR79d
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) February 9, 2026
Respected Money Betting Breakdown
Even if the Raiders trade the No. 1 overall pick to QB-needy teams like the Jets or Cardinals, Mendoza will still be the top pick, resulting in poor standalone betting value. The overwhelming prohibitive odds of -10000 make any investment involving Mendoza in this market, even as a leg in parlay investments a hard pass. We will have better spots to make NFL Draft investments in the weeks leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft which will take place on April 23. Be sure to be a Fulltime Fantasy premium subscriber!
