2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Jimmy Garoppolo
In 2021, Garoppolo finished the season with strength in his completion rate (68.3) and yards per pass attempt (8.6). Over his final nine games (including the postseason), Garoppolo passed for 2,233 yards (248 per game) with only 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In the playoffs, Garoppolo gained 540 yards in three matchups with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion rate (58.1) was a sign that his shoulder wasn’t healthy, leading to surgery in March of 2022. When at his best, he passed for over 300 yards in five contests while failing to deliver more than two scores in any game.
A season-ending injury to Trey Lance in the second game of last season gave Garoppolo the starting quarterback job for the 49ers. From Week 3 to Week 12, he passed for 2,227 yards over nine games with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. His best output came in three contests (307/2, 305/2, and 225/4) while adding 19 rushes for 28 yards and one score over this span. Unfortunately, Garoppolo saw his season end in Week 13 due to a broken left foot. He has been a winning quarterback (40-17) for the Patriots and 49ers in the regular season, with success in the postseason (4-2).
Las Vegas signed Garoppolo in March for three seasons ($72.75 million) before having surgery on his left foot. If his healing process doesn’t progress as planned, the Raiders could release him without financial responsibility.
Fantasy Outlook: During his time in the NFL, Garoppolo played for two winning franchises. However, he has only once (2019) kept the job for an entire season. He has plenty of passing weapons with a top chain moving back, but Garoppolo will have a smaller window to throw the ball in 2023. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, he ranks as a waiver-wire QB3. At best, a game manager with a chance at 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns if Garoppolo can stay upright for 17 games.
Aidan O’Connell
Over 33 games at Purdue, O’Connell completed two-thirds of his passes for 9,218 yards with 65 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. His best year came in 2021 (3,711/28). He brings no value to the run game besides the occasional score and short runs for first downs.
Fantasy Outlook: O’Connell will compete for the backup quarterback job for the Raiders in 2023. Brian Hoyer has experience in this system, making the logical choice to get the first chance to start if Jimmy Garoppolo has an injury.
Other Options: Brian Hoyer, Chase Garbers
— Running Backs —
The outlier in the running back stats over the past three seasons for the Raiders has to be the yards per rush (4.8) achieved in 2022. Over the previous two years, Las Vegas gained 4.11 and 4.07 yards per rush by their running backs. Their backs finished with 2,551 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 92 catches, which works to 25.71 FPPG. The Raiders threw less to the running back position in 2022 (92/678/2) than in 2021 (119/869/2) due to better wide receiver options.
Josh Jacobs
Las Vegas gave Jacobs the ball 306 times over 15 games in 2020. His opportunity fell by 11.4% in 2021, leading to 1,120 combined yards with nine touchdowns on 271 touches. He set a career-high in catches (54) and receiving yards (348). However, Jacobs gained only 4.0 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per catch while gaining 20 yards or more on only four plays (eight over his past 577 chances). He rushed for more than 100 yards in two games at home (27/129 and 26/132/1). Jacobs played the best over his final five games (97/459/2 – 4.7 yards per rush and 14 catches for 110 yards).
The Raiders worked Jacobs hard last season, leading to 393 touches (23.1 per game), while most fantasy drafters avoided him. He gained 2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 50 catches, ranking him third in running back scoring (329.30) in PPR formats. Jacobs gained more than 100 rushing yards in six matchups (28/144/2, 21/154/1, 20/143/3, 24/109, 33/229/2, and 26/144/1), which happened to come on two three-game stretches. The Raiders gave him a floor of five catches in five contests (5/31, 5/31, 5/39, 6/28, and 6/74), accounting for 54% of his season’s receptions (50).
Fantasy Outlook: Las Vegas didn’t re-up his fifth-year option before last season, creating a franchise situation heading into the summer. If Jacobs holds out, he will slide in drafts. His early ADP (22) ranks him sixth at running back in the high-stakes market. Running backs coming off career seasons rarely repeats, especially after a massive workload. Jacobs starts the season at age 25, so he has plenty of life still in his game. I’ll set his bar at 300 touches for 1,400 yards with double-digit scores and 40+ catches. His questionable offensive line suggests his yards per rush will be closer to the league average (4.3).
Zamir White
The Bulldogs tend to have a deep bench of talented running backs, leading to multiple runners getting chances each season. White played in 15 games in 2021, but he gained only 931 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine catches on 169 touches. Over his three seasons, White finished with success in the run game (382/2,043/25) with minimal chances to catch the ball (17/132). He had only one contest with over 100 yards rushing (14/105) and fewer than 15 touches in 13 games in his final year in college.
I feel for pro athletes who work hard to strengthen and build their bodies for success. Unfortunately, White has already blown out his right (2017) and left (2018) ACLs. Georgia used him as a north/south runner, which led to plenty of contact in tight quarters. White had a grinder feel but flashed quickness and elusiveness when breaking free at the second level of the defense. When asked to make plays on the outside, he showed the ability to make defenders miss, thanks to a shimmy in his running style. White will make yards after contact while being at his best in late games.
The Raiders only had him on the field for 40 plays in his rookie season, leading to 70 yards on 17 carries.
Fantasy Outlook: White gives the Raiders early-down insurance for Josh Jacobs. He comes off the early draft board as the 66th running back in early PPR formats. White could work as a goal-line runner with value…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAIDERS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
