2025 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview
Head coach Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot return to Atlanta, which will look like a much different team after missing the playoffs. With $30M in cap space, the team focused on defensive upgrades, addressing a pass rush that ranked 28th in pressure rate (29.8%) and a secondary allowing 69.9% completion (32nd in NFL). Free agency additions like EDGE Leonard Floyd, DL Morgan Fox, and S Jordan Fuller, and the first four picks in the 2025 NFL Draft bolstered the defense. Atlanta has not had a winning season since 2017. Their projected win total for 2025: 7.5.
Michael Penix Jr., the 2024 No. 8 pick, takes the helm after a rookie season with 775 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions in three starts. His 65.2% completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt under pressure show promise in Zac Robinson’s quick-read offense. Penix’s arm strength suits deep shots to the wideouts in play-action. Atlanta ranked 6th in pace of play last season, so there’s potential for Penix to be an above-average fantasy option after a trial run to close out 2024.
RB Bijan Robinson, a 2024 Pro Bowler, anchors the backfield with 1,456 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) and 425 receiving yards. His 5.6 yards after contact and 68 forced missed tackles (2nd in NFL) drive a run game ranked 11th in EPA/rush. Robinson has not missed an NFL game and finished his sophomore campaign as the RB4. Tyler Allgeier (686 yards, 4.4 YPC, PFF grade: 76.3) complements as a power back, with 28.4 percent of carries gaining 5+ yards.
Drake London (100/1,271/9) leads as WR1, with a 2.9 yards per route run (top-10) and 12 contested catches. And London’s usage with Penix as the starter was eye-opening. In those three games, London averaged 11.3 targets, 7.3 grabs, and 117.3 yards. ??Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud (469 yards, PFF grade: 70.1) start in 11 personnel, with McCloud’s 5.2 yards after catch adding YAC. Mooney is coming off his best season, with six top-20 weekly performances.
It’s time we had ‘the talk’ about Kyle Pitts. While many in the fantasy community are holding out hope, the odds are against Pitts ever living up to the hype. He ranked 25th in fantasy points per game with five weekly TE1 games and seven performances outside of the top 30. Pitts averaged 22 yards per game in Penix’s three starts. Let someone else fall for the Pitts #SZN Part IV.
Fantasy Grade: C+
QB Penix Jr., Michael, ATL [QB1]
In three late-season starts, Michael Penix finished as the QB30, QB25, and QB7. That three-game sample size led to some interesting results. Penix only completed 58 percent of his attempts and ranked 34th during the stretch in on-target throw rate. However, he also made some eye-opening throws, leading the NFL with a 9.0 big-time throw rate and ranking 2nd in ADOT (10.6). That paints the picture of a volatile young signal-caller with an extremely high ceiling and low floor. With the position being deep, Penix is a risk/reward QB2 in redraft and a Best Ball target to fade.
Atlanta has turned the page on Cousins, who had a disappointing debut with the Falcons. Cousins did not look fully recovered from the Achilles injury that ended his 2023 campaign. With Michael Penix starting, Cousins’s only route to contributing in 2025 is to waive his no-trade clause. Of course, a team would also have to be interested and be willing to take on his considerable salary. For now, Cousins’s only fantasy value is that of a speculative backup to roster in deeper leagues.
Robinson checks all the boxes to be fantasy football’s No. 1 player in 2025. He is durable, led the NFL in weighted opportunities (17.4/game), yards created (81.9/game), and was top five in carries, receptions, and touchdowns. Robinson also played the fourth-most snaps and ranked third in red-zone rushes. And in Michael Penix’s three starts, Robinson logged 67 carries for 354 and 6(!) rushing scores. Bijan is an elite runner (ranked 3rd with 83 tackles evaded) and receiver. He’s a three-down workhorse who will see a ton of targets and valuable red-zone touches in an emerging offense.
In the Arthur Smith day, Tyler Allgeier was a thorn in the side of fantasy managers. That isn’t the case now, as Allgeier ceded most work to Bijan Roinson. Allgeier’s touches have declined for three consecutive years. In 2024, he rushed for 644 yards (4.7 YPC) and 3 TDs on 137 carries, adding 17 receptions for 142 yards (6.0 PPG, PPR). His 18-carry, 105-yard Week 6 outburst showed RB2/3 potential, but Bijan Robinson’s dominance (259 carries, 19.0 PPG) caps his role.
In 2024, London established himself as a force near the goal line, racking up 23 red-zone targets—tied for the third-most in the league. He posted the third-best target rate per route (30 percent) and was thrown to on 41 percent of his routes with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. under center. While his overall snap rate ticked up slightly in Year Two, a shift toward a more pass-focused offense came with a slight dip in target volume. A key factor in London’s improved production was his increased usage from the slot, jumping from an 18.6 percent slot rate in 2023 to 39.6 percent in 2024. He averaged 23.1 PPG with Penix, a strong indicator of what’s to come.
Mooney wound up two yards short of his second 1,000-yard campaign, but his first season in Atlanta was a huge success. Mooney snagged 65-of-108 targets for 998 yards and a career-high five touchdowns en route to a WR32 finish. The Falcons finished 5th in passing, but the switch to Michael Penix looms. Mooney sat out Week 18 but had one good (13.2 points) and one bad (5.7 points) start with Penix under center. Mooney will have a hard time replicating last season’s volume, so we expect his numbers to regress.
WR McCloud, Ray-Ray, ATL [WR3]
ADVICE: Finally given a real opportunity to play, McCloud shattered all his previous numbers. He averaged 8.5 PPR points per game, including seven outings with double-digit points. However, he failed to eclipse 20 yards in two of Michael Penix’s three starts, so McCloud’s WR5/6 status comes with a precipitous floor.
TE Pitts, Kyle, ATL [TE1] Bust
Right on schedule, second-year Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson expects Kyle Pitts to ‘take a big jump’ this season. While that’s music to the ears of patient Pitts believers, we’re kind of over it. Pitts has been mediocre for three of his four seasons. Last season, nearly all of his metrics were unimpressive, and the quarterback switch certainly didn’t help. In the three games Michael Penix started, Pitts played less than half the snaps and averaged 22 yards. In two of those games, he was outside the top 40 for the week.
Normally reliable, Koo had the worst season of his career, missing a career-worst nine field goals. His points scored have dropped for three consecutive seasons, and the unpredictable state of Atlanta’s transitioning offense makes him a risky bet in 2025.
Four touchdowns helped Atlanta finish as an average fantasy defense. However, the Falcons only generated 31 sacks (2nd-fewest) and 18 turnovers. Reinforcements via free agency and the draft will help, but this is a below-average unit with little incentive for fantasy managers to target.
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