Saturday Playoff Preview
The NFL Divisional Round kicks off Saturday with a pair of high-profile matchups. FullTime Fantasy‘s Saturday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective.
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Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Time: 4:30 Eastern
Line: Chiefs -9
Total: 41.5
Money Line: Houston +395, Kansas City -500
Texans Offense
Houston’s offense has been stagnant for a while. However, DeMeco Ryans’s D stepped up huge in the Wild Card round, leading the Texans to a 20-point victory. Things won’t be as easy in the Divisional round, as a trip to frigid Missouri to face the defending champs is on deck.
It will take a near-perfect game from C.J. Stroud to give the Texans any chance. Stroud and company played in this building five weeks ago, and Stroud threw a pair of interceptions in a 27-19 loss. His play has regressed in Year Two, and facing a well-rested KC defense will be tough in freezing conditions. Although there is some optimism about Houston covering, Stroud is a lesser option in this four-game slate.
RB Joe Mixon has cooled after a torrid start. He did rush for 106 yards and a score last week against a formidable Chargers defense. However, facing the Chiefs will be much more difficult. Opposing running backs averaged a league-low 16.2 fantasy points per game versus Kansas City. Mixon will play a high snap share and can contribute as a receiver but he’ll have to score a touchdown to pay off as a DFS option.
It’s Nico Collins or bust at receiver for Houston. Collins has an over/under of 83.5 yards and is +180 to score per Vegas. However, our RDA* projections have Collins as the WR3 in this slate thanks to volume. Also, if Houston falls behind by multiple scores, that only favors Collins. Additionally, the Chiefs were below average in terms of surrendering fantasy points to enemy wideouts, so we’re signing off on Nico.
After that, Houston offers up little more than DFS dart throws. Robert Woods caught three balls for 19 yards against KC in Week 16. John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson also don’t inspire a ton of confidence and Jared Wayne was just called up from the practice squad.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz had a nice game against KC, snagging five balls for 45 yards and a touchdown. And only three teams allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Chiefs, so our RDA* projections (4.6/43/.33) have Schultz as a top-4 PPR option in Week 20.
Chiefs Offense
Houston ceded the sixth-fewest passing yards in 2024 and they did a solid job on Patrick Mahomes in Week 16. In that contest, Mahomes threw for 260 yards and one touchdown. However, Mahomes did run for 33 and an additional score to post good fantasy numbers. Vegas has Mahomes projected to total 277.5 yards (23.5 rushing) and he’s -144 to go OVER 1.4 touchdowns.
KC’s backfield has resolved into a frustrating committee. However, there is a chance that the club has been saving Isiah Pacheco for another Super Bowl run. Vegas has Pacheco projected to produce 51.5 scrimmage yards and he’s +150 to score. However, our RDA* projections have Pacheco at 62 yards with a 37% chance of hitting pay dirt.
Kareem Hunt will also be involved. However, the question remains how much? Hunt out-touched Pacheco against Houston previously and found the end zone. But Vegas has Hunt projected to have fewer yards and be less likely to score than Pacheco.
Xavier Worthy has been Kansas City’s leading receiver, including catching a team-high seven balls (11 targets) for 65 and a TD versus Houston last month. Our RDA* projections are just under that but Worthy remains a solid start in Playoff Fantasy Leagues.
Week 16 was Hollywood Brown’s first game with the club and he immediately commanded a healthy eight targets. As good as Houston’s pass defense was, they did allow opposing wideouts to score 21 touchdowns, so we like Brown and DeAndre Hopkins as quality options.
Houston also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends. While Travis Kelce has been quiet of late (at least by his standards), he tends to show up big in the postseason. Our RDA* projections have Kelce posting 14.2 PPR points, putting his as the TE2 in the slate.
Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)
Time: 8:00 Eastern
Line: Detroit -9
Total: 55.5
Money Line: Washington +400, Detroit -550
Commanders Offense
The AFC kicks off the day but it’s the NFC game that has the fantasy appeal. The upstart Commanders fly into Detroit to take on the conference’s top seed. And Vegas is expecting fireworks with that outrageous 55.5-point total.
That puts Jayden Daniels near the top of the Week 20 QB rankings. However, that is not exactly new territory for Daniels, who finished his rookie season as fantasy’s QB5. Detroit has had issues slowing down opposing QBs all season. The Lions allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most rushing yards (454) and second-most rushing TDs (6). Therefore, Daniels is our QB3 for the week and worth every bit of his lofty DFS price tag.
The matchup for the ground game isn’t as appealing. Detroit surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs even with myriad injuries. Washington will utilize two backs, but it’s Austin Ekeler who leads the way in RDA* projections, mainly due to his pass-catching prowess.
Brian Robinson can also factor in as a receiver and is just as likely to punch in a short-yardage score. However, Vegas projects Ekler to have one more scrimmage yard, 51-50. Proceed with caution.
As explosive as Washington’s offense is, Terry McLaurin has been the only reliable wide receiver. McLaurin posted WR7 numbers in the regular season, averaging 15.9 PPR points per contest. Conversely, the Lions ceded the second-most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers, who scored 37.8 points per game versus Detroit. McLaurin is an elite fantasy option who has slate-winning upside in a game that projects to be a shootout.
We’re not terribly interested in Washington’s ancillary wideouts. Jamison Crowder and Dymai Brown both fall outside our top 20 receivers this week. And Vegas agrees, projecting both to account for fewer than 40 receiving yards.
At tight end, Zach Ertz has had an impressive comeback season. However, this is not a good spot for the veteran pass-catcher. No team allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends than the Lions, who surrendered only three scores all season to the position.
Lions Offense
After a rough start, Washington’s pass defense made huge strides. The Commanders ranked third in pass defense and allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, with Detroit well-rested and that 55.5-point total, we still view Jared Goff as a good option. Goff has played particularly well at home, averaging 282.4 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per game at Ford Field.
David Montgomery returns to the lineup after a month-long absence. The Lions will use both of their standout running backs early and often. Montgomery remains the best bet to cash in short-yardage scores. However, Jahmyr Gibbs has been effective in that area and has been an elite fantasy producer while Monty was sidelined.
Gibbs is our RB3 for the week. However, Montgomery is also a top-6 option that comes with a discounted DFS price. The official Saturday Playoff Preview advice is to target both.
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads our weekly projections with 19.3 PPR points. St. Brown has five-plus grabs in his last five home tilts. And with the flow of this game looking promising, we’re counting on another standout performance.
Jameson Williams is +140 to score with a big lean (-140) on OVER 60.5 yards. Our RDA* projections are even higher, predicting Williams to score 14.7 PPR points. Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond will vie for WR3 looks but are little more than cheap DFS options with low floors.
TE Sam LaPorta is our top player at the position. Washington allowed 10.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends but we like LaPorta’s touchdown odds, which can be found as high as +155. Our RDA* projections give LaPorta a 61% chance of scoring, which is closer to -155.
Thanks for reading our Saturday Playoff Preview.
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Thanks for reading our Saturday Playoff Preview.
