Week 12 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 12 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight. My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster.
As we enter week 10, the playoffs are starting to close in. Some teams are finding themselves mathematically out of it, others need to make some aggressive moves to get into the playoffs. Others are positioning themselves for the playoffs.
This week I’ll focus exclusively on the young receivers and review how they’ve performed using targets per route run and yards per route run metrics.
Young Breakout Receivers
The above table looks at all first and second-year WRs who have at least 15% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.5 Yards per route run (YPRR) through ten weeks this year. Below are some comments on players who stood out in Week 11.
Second Year Players
Josh Downs: Downs continues to contribute even with the switch back to Anthony Richardson. This week, he caught all five of his targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. That equated to a 23% targets per route run (TPRR) and 3.8 yards per route run (YPRR) both numbers that demonstrate high efficiency for the sophomore receiver. On the year, which gives him a 32% TPRR and 2.5 YPRR efficiency. He’s the most reliable of the Colts receivers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba was the first receiver off the board in his rookie class. He underwhelmed last year, but he continues his breakout campaign. This week, he caught 10 of his 11 targets for 110 yards but no touchdowns. His 31% TPRR and 3.1 YPRR showed he could deliver even with DK Metcalf’s return. That moves his 2024 metrics to 23% TPRR and 1.9 YPRR
Jordan Addison: Another first-round rookie in his class, Addison has been up and down a bit this year, but he did collect eight targets on 25 routes this week catching three balls for 61 yards and a TD. That gave him 32% TPRR and 2.4 YPRR on the week. For the year, he has 19% TPRR and 1.6 YPRR. He’s a potential flex play for owners each week hoping for one of his big weeks.
Puka Nacua: Nacua just continues to deliver for his owners after a lengthy string of weeks missed due to injury. He recorded 33% TPRR and 1.5 YPRR this week. He caught seven balls for 123 yards and a touchdown. For the year, Nacua has recorded 34% TPRR and 3.2 YPRR over his five-game sample.
Quentin Johnston: Johnston only caught two of eight targets, but did get 48 yards and a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. He’s averaging 12 ppg which is a solid bounce back from a difficult rookie campaign. Johnston also collected a 21% TPRR and a 2.1 YPRR on the year. He appears to be a piece of the rebuilding receiving room for the Chargers.
Rookies
Ladd McConkey: McConkey continues with his breakout rookie season. He caught six of his nine targets for 123 scoreless yards. That amounted to a 28% TPRR and 3.8 YPRR on the week. That moves his year-to-date performance to 24% TPRR and 2.4 YPRR. He’s a bright rookie and the centerpiece of the Chargers’ passing attack.
Devaughn Vele: Vele has been inconsistent but continues to be out there running routes for the Broncos. This week he caught four of five targets for 66 yards giving him a 22% TPRR and 2.9 YPRR for the week. For the year, he’s demonstrated target-earning ability in the seven games he’s played collecting a 21% TPRR and 1.9 YPRR. For him to be trusted, however, he’ll need to more consistently be out there running routes.
Rome Odunze: Odunze flashes on and off this report. Once again, he delivered a playable week with ten targets and six receptions for 65 yards. The Bears’ offense leaves a lot to be desired, but Odunze should be a significant piece of the offense if they can get in sync.
