Week 11 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 11 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight. My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster.
As we enter Week 11, the playoffs are starting to close in. Some teams are finding themselves mathematically out of it, others need to make some aggressive moves to get into the playoffs. Others are positioning themselves for the playoffs.
This week I’ll focus exclusively on the young receivers and review how they’ve performed using targets per route run and yards per route run metrics.
Young Breakout Receivers
The above table looks at all first and second-year WRs who have at least 15% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.5 Yards per route run (YPRR) through ten weeks this year. Below are some comments on players who stood out in Week 10.
Second Year Players
Josh Downs: Downs continues to contribute as he delivered seven receptions on ten targets for 72 yards and 0 TDs. He registered a 36% targets per route run (TPRR) and a solid 2.6 yards per route run (YPRR). His only downside is he’s not playing a lot in 12 personnel, but still tends to get targeted enough to deliver for you as a flex or WR3 player. We’ll see how the switch back to Anthony Richardson impacts his play.
Demario Douglas: Douglas isn’t in a great offense, but he’s certainly experienced an uptick with the QB change a few weeks ago. This week he delivered four receptions on 50 yards on five targets. He had a 29% TPRR and 2.9 YPRR. He’s more of a dart throw to get into your lineups, but in games where he gets enough volume his high catch percentage will deliver in PPR leagues.
Tank Dell: Dell’s target share without Nico Collins for another week was strong with a 29% TPRR. He provided fantasy owners with five receptions for 39 yards on nine targets for a disappointing 1.3 YPRR. When Collins returns, he should get less focus from the defense; the question will be if that will compensate for being a lower priority in the passing attack?
Rookies
Ricky Pearsall: Pearsall continues to play well. His four receptions on six targets for 73 yards and one touchdown were playable for fantasy teams. His advanced metrics in week 10 of 21% TPRR and 2.6 YPRR were also solid. He’s starting to stack good games together taking advantage of Brandon Aiyuk’s absence from the lineup.
Malik Nabers: Nabers was once again heavily involved in the Giants’ offense (again during the second half of the game). Nabers collected six receptions for 50 scoreless yards on ten targets. The advanced metrics were a bit muted with just 28% TPRR and another disappointing 1.4 YPRR but this season to date numbers of 32% TPRR and 2.1 YPRR are still very strong.
Puka Nacua: The routes run data for Monday night’s game isn’t available at the time of this writing, but Nacua again dominated the receiving action for the Rams. Nacua led the team with 14 targets, nine receptions, and 98 yards. He failed to score a TD, but his 32% actual target share was very strong. Nacua is delivering 18.2 ppg in his two full games since his return looks like he’s a WR1 for the remainder of the season.
Adonai Mitchell: Mitchell received an uncharacteristic 35 routes this week. He rewarded the Colts with catching all six of his targets for 71 yards and no touchdowns. That resulted in a 17% TPRR and 2.0 YPRR. He registered over 30% TPRR with limited usage. Mitchell has a chance to continue to prove himself in this crowded receiving score for a run-heavy offense.
