Week 10 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 10 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight.
My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster.
As we enter Week 10, the playoffs are starting to close in. Some teams are finding themselves mathematically out of it, others need to make some aggressive moves to get into the playoffs. Others are positioning themselves for the playoffs.
This week I’ll focus exclusively on the young receivers and review how they’ve performed using targets per route run and yards per route run metrics.
Young Breakout Receivers
The above table looks at all first and second-year wideouts who have at least 15% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.5 yards per route run (YPRR) through eight weeks this year. Below are some comments on players who stood out in Week 9.
Second-Year Players
Josh Downs: Downs delivered a seemingly floor game for him with 12 points on six receptions for 60 yards on nine targets. The nine targets represented an absurd 45% targets per route run performance. Downs is becoming an every-week WR2/3 for lineups. For at least Week 9, Downs gets Flacco under center. With a 31% TPRR and over 2.0 yards per route run, he’s a must-start this week.
Tank Dell: Dell led the Texans without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins in the lineup. He had six receptions on nine targets for 126 yards and no touchdowns. His return to high yards/reception was a positive sign. For the week, he earned a 23% targets per route run and 3.2 yards per route run performance. On the year, which brings him up to 19% targets per route run and 1.4 yards per route run. hose numbers are just below what qualifies him for the table above.
Cedric Tillman: Tillman didn’t have great underlying metrics this week, but did turn in a six reception 75 yard and one TD performance. He did that on the strength of 11 targets. That represented a 20% targets per route run and 1.4 yards per route run on the week bringing his season to 18% targets per route run and 1.3 yards per route run. He’s been a strong fantasy receiver the last three weeks and will likely continue to be going forward.
Jayden Reed: Reed was highly productive this week collecting five receptions for 113 yards and no touchdowns. That represented 21% targets per route run and 3.9 yards per route run on the week bringing his season total to 21% targets per route run and 2.8 yards per route run. Your lineup needs to be deep to not include Reed each week.
Zay Flowers: Flowers again delivered with five receptions for 127 yards and two touchdowns. He did this with only six targets and earned 38% targets per route run and an astonishing 7.9 yards per route run. That brings his season to 26% targets per route run and 2.6 yards per route run.
Quentin Johnston: Johnston returned to action this week. The Los Angeles Chargers are beginning to pass more now, and Johnston is involved. He collected four receptions with 137 yards and one touchdown. That was good for 21% targets per route run and 5.7 yards per route run. His season performance is now 21% targets per route run and 2.4 yards per route run. Johnston is having a strong bounce-back season averaging a respectable 12.1 ppg.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba was the start of Week 9 with seven receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns. He did this on 13 targets. This represented a 31% targets per route run and 4.3 yards per route run. That brings his season to 22% targets per route run and 1.7 yards per route run.
Rookies
Brian Thomas: Thomas had a down week with only two receptions for 22 scoreless yards. He played on a questionable tag. But he still sports a very efficient 22% targets per route run and 2.5 yards per route run on the year.
Malik Nabers: Nabers was once again heavily involved in the Giants offense (at least during the second half of the game). Nabers collected nine receptions for 59 scoreless yards. The advanced metrics were a bit muted with just 16% targets per route run and a disappointing 0.9 yards per route run but this season to date numbers of 33% targets per route run and 2.2 yards per route run are very strong.
Ladd McConkey: McConkey followed up his strong Week 8 with a solid 5-reception, 70-yard performance this week. He recorded 23% targets per route run on the week and 2.3 yards per route run bringing his season total to 25% targets per route run and 2.1 yards per route run.
Xavier Legette: Legette continued to play well post-Diontae Johnson trade. He recorded four receptions for 33 yards and one touchdown. That represented 27% targets per route run and 1.5 yards per route run. That brings his total to 21% targets per route run and 1.3 yards per route run.
Rome Odunze: Odunze is quietly becoming the most productive of the Bears’ receivers, which isn’t saying a lot, of course. He turned in his second 100-yard effort collecting five receptions for 104 yards and no touchdowns. That represented a 15% targets per route run with a strong 2.3 yards per route run. For the year, Odunze has earned 17% targets per route run and 1.5 yards per route run. He needs to get in better sync with his rookie QB and connect on a few more deep targets to spike his metrics.
