Week 1 NFL Player Props
Week 1 is officially underway and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of action. Last season, this column resulted in +12.6 Units so let’s have another profitable season.
Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 1 NFL Player Props to target!
Jared Goff OVER 265.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Goff topped this line in each of his previous five games of the 2023 season, including in the Wild Card Round against these very same Los Angeles Rams in which he tallied 277 passing yards. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, a healthy Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta, and even Kalif Raymond, the sky is the limit for these Lions. Especially with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield.
Goff finished the 2023 campaign second in passing yards (4,575) and his home/away splits are eye-popping. He completed over 70% of his pass attempts with a 19:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 107.9 QBR at home. On the road, it was a different story as the signal caller completed just 64.8% of his throws with an 11:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 89.5 QBR.
Against the Rams, the Lions will surely run the ball but given the weapons at Goff’s disposal, I think he’ll clear this line easily on his home turf. Expect at least one deep connection to Jameson Williams while St. Brown and Laporta will be peppered with targets. Smash the Over.
Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) WIN
After his breakout season, Jordan Love is set to kick off this campaign against an Eagles team getting a ton of buzz for upgrading its secondary. However, that secondary was the league’s second-worst pass defense in 2023. And although the Eagles snagged two corners with their first two picks, I’m not so sure that they’ll be able to stick with Green Bay’s electric playmakers on the outside in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and even Luke Musgrave. If the Packers want to remain competitive in their season opener, the secondary is the area of the field that Love will need to exploit.
Philly also swapped out Hassan Reddick for Michael Huff, but their front seven remains largely the same — a group that finished 10th in rushing defense last season. So, the ground game might be tough sledding, which means Love and his receivers will have the best shot moving the ball through the air.
Love was a machine late last season, averaging 271 passing yards over his final nine regular season games, throwing for 255+ yards in seven of them. And while RB Josh Jacobs will get his touches, don’t be surprised if some of those handoffs turn into screen passes or dump-offs to keep the Eagles’ fierce front seven on their heels — boosting Love’s yardage even more.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) WIN
Here’s a line that stands out — and not in a good way! It’s set way too low for a clear RB1 like Brian Robinson Jr. Let me break it down: Robinson is the main guy for the Commanders, handling the bulk of the carries. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler, as talented as he is, plays more of a third-down role, meaning he’s not going to be pounding the rock a ton.
Now, even if Robinson isn’t super efficient — let’s say he averages just 3.0 yards per carry — with the kind of volume he’s likely to get (around 13 carries), he’ll still end up pushing past 40 yards. So don’t let a low line fool you! I’ll be wagering multiple units on this one.
James Conner OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) WIN
Get ready for a wild ride because I’m all in on the Cardinals surprising everyone this season! This bet is all about believing in them to rise above expectations. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs heading into Buffalo, and if the Bills completely steamroll them, sure, this might not hit. But I think the Cardinals can hang tough!
Last season, James Conner cleared 12.5 rush attempts in 9 of his 13 games. And the only times he didn’t? Those were brutal losses by 19, 14, 23, and 11 points. As long as Arizona doesn’t get blown out, Conner will be fed the ball. Rookie Trey Benson? He’s probably only getting a couple of carries, leaving Conner as the workhorse.
So, unless this game turns into a total rout, expect Conner to smash that 12.5-rush-attempt mark!
Blake Corum UNDER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Do we truly think Sean McVay is going to cut back Kyren Williams‘s workload that much? Perhaps later in the season but seven carries for a backup running back still seems like a lot. Especially given that the Lions are favored, the Rams may have to throw the ball late to complete a comeback.
This game’s got the highest total of the week at 50.5, so we’re probably in for an exciting, pass-heavy shootout. With all that action, it’s hard to imagine Blake Corum — in his first game — squeezing in seven rush attempts. It’s going to be all about the air show in this one!
Nico Collins OVER 65.6 Receiving Yards (-120) WIN
Get ready for a big game from Collins! That standout receiver was the third-best in 2023 according to PFF. Sure, Stefon Diggs might take a chunk of the targets, but you can’t overlook what Collins did against Indy last season. He torched them, clearing 100 yards in both matchups, including a jaw-dropping 195-yard performance in Week 18!
And it’s not just the Colts. Collins hit this yardage mark in eight games last season when he played over 60% of snaps. And the Colts’ defense hasn’t exactly leveled up. PFF ranked them 21st in coverage. Additionally, two of their worst games were against Houston.
Now, here’s where it gets even juicier: Kenny Moore II, the Colts’ top corner, plays primarily in the slot. But guess what? Collins only ran 20% of his routes from the slot last season, meaning he’ll be going up against either JuJu Brents (64.5 PFF grade) or Jaylon Jones (55.8 PFF grade) for most of the game.
Sunday is looking like another huge day for Collins!
Malik Nabers OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-120) WIN
Week 1 is the perfect time to go all-in on the breakout candidates you think are poised to explode! This could be the best value you’ll get on them all season!
I’m hyped about rookies like Brock Bowers and Xavier Worthy (with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown sidelined), but Malik Nabers is FullTime’s 2024 Breakout Player of the Year and I firmly believe he will finish above Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024 PPR fantasy leagues. Nabers is the real deal — combining insane athleticism with top-tier college production. Many pundits even compare the rookie to LSU legend Ja’Marr Chase! That’s about as high praise as one gets! Fantasy drafters are catching on too, grabbing Nabers in the second or third round of FFWC drafts like hotcakes.
Me hitting DRAFT as fast as possible if Malik Nabers is still there in Round 3 pic.twitter.com/sihMjoucCY
— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) September 2, 2024
Now, the only thing that might raise an eyebrow? His quarterback, Daniel Jones. Jones hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet in his career, maxing out at 3,205 passing yards and only throwing more than 15 touchdowns in one season. BUT — and it’s a big “but” — he’s never had a receiver like Nabers at his disposal. The offense will surely run through the electrifying rookie with Darren Waller retired and Saquon Barkley now in Philly.
And if preseason is any indication, Jones is going to be looking his way A LOT. Nabers owned a massive 33% target share — to put that in perspective, only four guys in the entire league last year had a target share over 30%: Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Garrett Wilson.
Those guys are already lined up for monster Week 1 performances. And Nabers is the next big thing. Now’s the time to smash the Giants’ rookie’s Over on his receiving yardage output. It may not be any lower than this all season.
Also, don’t forget that Nabers is our Breakout Player of the Year.
