2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: QB

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime Fantasy‘s 2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: QB looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

There is also a lot of strength of schedule analysis out there, but FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

Here is a deep dive into the 2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: QB and how to take advantage of that data this draft season.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

Favorable Schedules

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) – After finishing as the QB in 2023, Brock Purdy is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy football. Purdy is a perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He led the NFL in yards per attempt and has one of the top supporting casts in football.

Purdy has won 17 of his 21 career regular-season starts and oddsmakers expect that success to continue. San Francisco is projected to repeat as NFC champions and the 2024 NFL schedule sets up very favorably.

In addition to six games against their defensively-challenged NFC West rivals, San Francisco’s second-half schedule has matchups against bottom-10 secondaries in Tampa, Miami, and Detroit. Also, that fantasy playoff slate versus the Dolphins and Lions looks appealing in tournament leagues.

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) – There are myriad reasons to be concerned about Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game peaking last season. However, if the Cowboys contend with top-5 offensive numbers again, their easy quarterback schedule will play a big role.

After a challenging start, Prescott should thrive in the second half of the 2024 slate. Starting in Week 9, Dallas plays four consecutive games versus opponents that were below average in terms of ceding fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Additionally, the Cowboys have a phenomenal fantasy playoff stretch, including a home game against a Tampa defense that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position and a fantasy finale in Philadelphia versus an Eagles’ secondary that surrendered the second-most. Sounds like an over/under north of 50 points. Just what the fantasy doctors ordered.

Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) – The Bears have never had a quarterback exceed 4,000 passing yards or throw for 30 touchdowns in a season. Enter No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, one of the most heralded QB prospects in recent years. Williams threw for 4,537 yards and 42 scores en route to 2022 Heisman honors at USC.

Williams is an accurate gunslinger who will give Matt Eberflus and the Bears a legitimate shot at challenging franchise records in both categories right away. Chicago is stacked with weapons, including WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and RB D’Andre Swift.

And Chicago’s schedule sets up well for Williams to post fantasy-relevant numbers immediately. The Bears have six games against opponents that ranked inside the bottom 7 in points allowed to QBs last season. Also, both of the team’s fantasy postseason tilts against Detroit and Seattle’s subpar secondaries will be in Chicago.

Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) – Last season, FullTime Fantasy’s strength of schedule analysis helped predict Jordan Love’s breakout. In 2024, Love again has an intriguing slate of games that indicate he won’t be a flash in the pan.

The Packers get those six games against the weak NFC North secondaries. However, they also play the Chargers, Cardinals, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Seahawks. Each team was below average in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

Additionally, one thing that always needs to be factored into Green Bay’s schedule is the weather. Starting in Week 9, the Packers have six games that winter conditions could impact. Still, Love looked like the real deal in 2023 and will contend for top-10 fantasy numbers in his second season as the starter.

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) – When all is said and done, I believe Patrick Mahomes will be my QB1 for 2024. While last year was a bit of a struggle, Kansas City’s offseason additions, Josh Allen’s offseason losses, and KC’s schedule are indicative of a huge rebound for the league’s top signal caller.

Expect the new offense to get out to a fast start. After a potentially tough opener, the Chiefs play three consecutive games versus opponents who were in the bottom 12 against the pass last season. Mahomes also gets to face the NFC South and has a tantalizing three-game home stretch starting in Week 13 against the Raiders.

Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are both huge upgrades for a Chiefs’ passing attack that was rather stagnant in 2023 without a downfield speed element. Plus, the seventh-easiest fantasy schedule for Mahomes sets up nicely for the two-time defending champs.

Other schedules to target: J.J McCarthy (3rd), Bryce Young 5th), Lamar Jackson (8th)

Difficult Schedules

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Last summer, the concerns about Tua Tagovailoa were health-related. However, Tagovailoa stayed healthy for the first time in his career and led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. While that was a huge plus, Tagovailoa only ranked 20th in fantasy points per game and offers nothing as a runner.

Those are legitimate concerns at a QB position that is as deep as it’s ever been. Additionally, the schedule makers didn’t do the Dolphins any favors in 2024. Miami has the league’s hardest schedule for the QB position. The Dolphins have six games against the Jets (2nd), Bills (5th), and Patriots (8th) elite secondaries.

Additionally, Miami’s fantasy playoff slate is imposing. In Week 16, the Dolphins host the defending NFC champions who ranked sixth against opposing passers last season. And it only gets worse in championship week. The Phins then travel to wintry Cleveland to face the Browns’ fourth-ranked secondary. Miami has lost 11 straight games when the temperature is below 40 degrees.

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Heavy favorites to win the weak AFC South, Jacksonville struggled on defense and ultimately missed the postseason. Now, the Jaguars have to contend with two emerging division rivals and a tough schedule. Overall, Trevor Lawrence faces the second most difficult slate in 2024.

Tennessee and Houston both showed improvements against the pass. The Jaguars also face the Browns, Bills, and Jets and have an imposing fantasy-playoff stretch in Tennessee, versus the Jets, traveling to Las Vegas, and back home versus the Titans in Week 17.

Lawrence still looks like a decent value who will contend for QB1 numbers again. However, with the current depth of the position, fantasy managers can simply wait another round or two and nab another signal-caller who doesn’t face such an imposing schedule.

Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – Health has been the biggest issue for Burrow and the Bengals. A preseason leg injury caused Burrow to miss preseason reps and come out of the gate slowly last year. However, he was a top-5 weekly fantasy option starting in Week 5 before a wrist injury ended his 2023 campaign.

He’s fully healthy now but injuries aren’t the only concern for Burrow in 2024. The Bengals have a tough slate of games, including seven matchups against opponents that ranked inside the top 10 in terms of limiting fantasy points to opposing passers.

The fantasy playoff stretch drive looks particularly intimidating. Cincinnati travels to Dallas in Week 14, then to Tennessee on short rest. Finally, the Bengals host the Browns in Week 16- their third game in 10 days.

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) – The fantasy community is (in)famously reactionary. Even in a “down” 2023 showing, Justin Herbert still produced QB1 numbers in fantasy points per game. However, the hiring of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman has also caused Herbert’s stock to plummet.

I think Herbert is a value in 2024. He’s a solid runner and will great the most of the new supporting cast. But, what is a concern is LA’s schedule.

The Chargers open the season with four straight games against solid secondries. In all, 11 of LA’s 18 games come against teams that ranked inside the top 12 against fantasy signal callers. Still buying the dip, but aware that there are plenty of risks.

Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers) – There are plenty of reasons to fade Wilson in 2024. While he wasn’t as bad as people remember last year, the Broncos are eating the largest cap hit in NFL history to have Wilson play against them. That’s a concern.

Another is the presence of Justin Fields. Pittsburgh was able to add him to the QB room for an extremely discounted price. Fields has more playmaking upside than Wilson. Undoubtedly, the Steelers faithful will collectively call for Fields to relieve Wilson as soon as the Pittsburgh offense struggles.

And that’s likely to happen sooner than later. The Steelers have five games against the league’s top-4 fantasy QB defenses. Weeks 4-7 could prove to be a huge test of Wilson’s ability to overcome adversity and prove he can still be a viable NFL starter. Pittsburgh still managed to make the playoffs with atrocious quarterback play last season. But the schedule makers assured us that the Steelers quarterback woes are far from over.