2024 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview
They know what they’re doing with quarterbacks in Wisconsin. After following in the footsteps of redshirting behind Aaron Rodgers for two years, Jordan Love surpassed Rodgers and led the NFL’s youngest roster to a surprising playoff demolition of the Cowboys. These young Pacers won’t take anybody by surprise in 2024.
Love was barely drafted last season. That won’t be the case in 2024 after he posted top-5 fantasy numbers and single-handedly carried many teams to titles with spectacular play down the stretch. Now playing for a lucrative long-term contract extension, Love and his emerging young supporting cast will be hot commodities in fantasy drafts.
Speaking of youth, Green Bay added Josh Jacbos to take over as the team’s lead back. Jacobs is over three years younger than Aaron Jones, who was subsequently released. Jacobs also outweighs Jones, giving him more touchdown upside in this explosive offense. Additionally, Jacobs has posted higher PFF receiving grades than Jones in back-to-back seasons, giving Jacobs workhorse potential as an RB1 target.
The club also added USC RB MarShawn Lloyd in the third round. Matt LaFleur praised Lloyd’s pass-catching chops and indicated the offense would continue to utilize multiple backs.
Green Bay’s youth movement is even more apparent in the receiving corps. Christian Watson is penciled in as the WR1 but must prove he can stay on the field. Watson was limited to nine games with hamstring injuries but has the potential to be a solid value if he slides on draft day due to recency bias.
Jayden Reed is just as likely to be the club’s top dog. The second-rounder debuted with 64 grabs for 793 yards and 10 total touchdowns. Starting in Week 7, Reed posted overall WR7 fantasy numbers for the rest of the season. He’s a strong WR2 and can easily be paired with Love in drafts.
Romeo Doubs (59/674/8) also made a solid fantasy impact in his sophomore season. However, a lot of that production came from Watson’s absence. Green Bay deployed three-wide personnel on just 63.1% of their snaps, which ranked 18th. Doubs could be over-drafted.
LaFleur utilized two tight end sets on 31.6% of Green Bay’s snaps- third-most in football. Tucker Kraft was more effective after missing most of the first half of the season with an ankle injury. Kraft topped double-digit fantasy points in the final four games of the fantasy season. Fellow rookie Luke Musgrave was sidelined with a lacerated kidney during that stretch. Both second-year tight ends will be involved, with Musgrave more likely to emerge as the 1A.
This young Packers roster has all the pieces in place to be one of the top-5 fantasy offenses to target in 2024.
Quarterbacks
QB JORDAN LOVE – SOLID/SAFE PICK
It wasn’t the traditional route but Jordan Love’s first season as an NFL starter resulted in a sensational QB5 finish. Love was tremendous down the stretch, posting 27 scores in Green Bay’s final 11 contests. The Packers scored a touchdown on 95% of their goal-to-go situations- a testament to Love’s efficiency. With a deep and versatile group of pass catchers and the addition of first-round OT Jordan Morgan, Love looks poised to continue Green Bay’s elite, long-time quarterback legacy. The Packers are also projected to make the playoffs, which bodes well for Love’s 2024 prospects. It’s also fairly easy to build a Packers stack in most drafts. ADVICE: Top 10 option with safe floor.
Running Backs
RB JOSH JACOBS – SOLID/SAFE PICK
It was no surprise to see Josh Jacobs’s efficiency fall off a cliff after leading the NFL with 393 touches in 2022. Jacobs saw a 28.5% decline in yards per carry and plummeted from 90 missed tackles to just 28. Additionally, Jacobs missed the final four games of the season with a quad injury. Jacobs won’t be asked to do as much with the Packers but Green Bay offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich had glowing remarks about Jacobs’s versatility as a runner, receiver, and protector. Expect fewer touches for Jacbos, but he should rebound on a team with a far superior offense and quarterback. ADVICE: Borderline RB1 who should rebound.
RB MARSHAWN LLOYD – FANTASY HANDCUFF
Many NFL Draft analysts ranked MarShawn Lloyd as a top-3 running back in this class and his landing spot could hardly be better. The Packers love using multiple backs and Lloyd will fit right in as the change-of-pace option behind Josh Jacobs. Lloyd is an elusive runner with excellent breakaway ability and burst. He ranked third in FBS in PFF’s Elusive Rating in 2023 while averaging a healthy 1.22 yards per route run as a receiver. Lloyd’s profile is similar to Aaron Jones and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him have a significant role right away. ADVICE: Excellent mid-to-late-round sleeper who could see a fantasy-relevant role immediately.
RB AJ DILLON – LOW POTENTIAL
A solid mid-round sleeper target last summer, Dillon plodded his way to a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry and only cashed in two of his 10 carries inside the five-yard line. Through four seasons, his elusiveness and yards after contact have eroded. With the signing of Josh Jacobs and the drafting of MarShawn Lloyd, Dillon no longer has a viable path to a weekly role. Dillon didn’t draw much interest in free agency and returned to Green Bay where. he’ll have an uncertain role. ADVICE: Dillon has no viable path to touches in Green Bay’s backfield and can be ignored on draft day.
Wide Receivers
WR JAYDEN REED – SOLID/SAFE PICK
Jayden Reed turned heads in his rookie season as the Packers’ go-to slot receiver. Even without a full-time role, he was a magnet for targets, boasting a 25% target rate per route run and 2.06 yards per route (27th). Reed topped all Packers wideouts with 10.6 points per game and 10 touchdowns. Impressively, he finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his contests, placing 12th, and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap. Reed has clearly built a rapport with QB Jordan Love but there are a bunch of good young receiving options on the team in Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks. ADVICE: Excellent value target with WR2 upside.
WR CHRISTIAN WATSON – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED)
A hot commodity last summer, Watson’s faulty hamstrings derailed what was supposed to be his breakout campaign. He missed half the season but once he was fully up to speed, there were flashes of that potential. From Weeks 11-13, Watson played over 80% of snaps, had seven red-zone targets, and finished as the WR32, WR13, and WR8. Entering his third season, Watson is entrenched as a starter in a surging young offense. Buyer’s remorse will push Watson down the draft board, making him a solid mid-to-late round investment this year. ADVICE: Health is paramount but Watson is shaping up to be a savvy late-round investment.
WR ROMEO DOUBS – QUALITY BACKUP
Doubs took advantage of Christian Watson’s injury woes and parlayed the extra playing time into 96 targets and eight touchdowns. Watson is healthy once again but that might not impact Doubs’s playing time as much as some think. Including the playoffs, Doubs averaged 11.7 fantasy points in the 11 games he played with Watson active. Green Bay also utilized three wides on 63.1% of their snaps and Doubs ranked 14th in the NFL with 17 red-zone targets. That’s a role he’ll retain in an offense that really took off down the stretch. ADVICE: Doubs will see plenty of snaps with a reliable red-zone role for a surging offense.
WR DONTAYVION WICKS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN
Green Bay’s No. 4 wideout, Wicks averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game without Christian Watson in the lineup. However, when Watson suited up, Wicks dropped down to 5.3 points per game. Wicks has talent, especially when locked up one-on-one in man coverage. But as long as he’s buried on the depth chart, Wicks is reduced to an inconsistent role. Fantasy managers in deeper leagues can justify stashing Wicks but he’s unlikely to be fantasy-relevant unless one of the wideouts above him on the depth chart goes down for an extended period. ADVICE: Talented reserve who is worth a look in deeper leagues.
Tight Ends
TE LUKE MUSGRAVE – QUALITY BACKUP
Musgrave had his moments as a rookie, with five top-15 weekly showings in 11 starts. But he missed six weeks with a lacerated kidney and ranked 26th with a modest 12.7% target share. He also has to contend for playing time with teammate Tucker Kraft, who was slightly more productive on a points-per-snap basis. There’s a lot to like about Musgrave’s game, though. He led all tight ends in target separation and ranked 11th with a 7.5 ADOT. He’s also ahead of Kraft on the depth chart. At 31.6%, the Packers ranked third in two tight end formations, so both will see plenty of snaps. ADVICE: Solid mid-range TE2 with some weekly upside.
TE TUCKER KRAFT – QUALITY BACKUP
The Packers used the third-most ’12’ sets last season, so there should be abundant targets available for both of their second-year tight ends, which is a curse and a blessing. In the six games that Kraft played without Luke Musgrave, Kraft posted four TE1 performances. With Musgrave active, Kraft ranked outside the weekly top 40 eight times. Kraft was efficient when targeted and benefited from exceptionally accurate passes. He ranked fourth in QB Rating while targeted (120.3) and fifth in yards per target (8.9). As long as Green Bay continues to use both tight ends, Kraft has streaming value with top 10 upside if Musgrave were sidelined again. ADVICE: Quality reserve tight end mired in a timeshare.
Place Kicker
PK GREG JOSEPH – BYE WEEK FILL-IN
Green Bay’s offense was effective at scoring touchdowns, so Joseph finished outside of the top-20 fantasy kickers. He also missed six field goals and a pair of extra points. While the Packers project to have a top-10 offense, Joseph doesn’t have a lot of job security, making him little more than a weekly streaming target for fantasy purposes.
Defense/Special Teams
GREEN BAY PACKERS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN
The Packers were a better stop unit in real life than in fantasy. Green Bay improved to 17th overall and was 10th in points against in 2023. The Packers were very good against the pass (9th) but struggled on the ground (28th). They invested four picks in the first four rounds of this year’s draft to shore up some of those issues. Overall, Green Bay is a solid streaming option but faces a tough schedule in the high-octane NFC North.
Other 2024 Fantasy Football Previews
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