2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview
The Bills still have one of the top QBs in the NFL, Josh Allen. However, this offense will look much different without Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Allen was the top quarterback in fantasy football last year, so expectations remain high despite the wholesale changes in the passing attack.
Will free-agent acquisitions Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, along with second-round draft pick Keon Coleman be enough to give the Bills the same firepower in the passing game this year? Time will tell. Buffalo did hang on to Khalil Shakir and spoke glowingly about his potential and new role. Plus, the franchise signed Chase Claypool to a one-year deal, which should help the receiver room.
Buffalo has two very talented tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox opened 2023 as the starter but a wrist injury opened the door for Kincaid to become a pivotal piece of the offense. Kincaid ended the season as the TE11 after tallying 73 receptions (80.2% catch rate) for 673 yards and two TDs. Absent Diggs and Davis, Kincaid could be Josh Allen’s go-to option in 2024.
Despite the loss of two critical weapons, many pundits still think the Bills have a shot at a Super Bowl appearance in 2024 under Sean McDermott. “Look around the league,” said Rich Gannon. “They have a top-five situation. They have an outstanding quarterback and a terrific football coach. It’s rare to have both in the same city.”
Fortunately for Buffalo, Josh Allen isn’t the only one who balled out last year. RB James Cook eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards per tote. He totaled 1,567 scrimmage yards but only found the end zone as a runner twice. However, he made up for that in the passing game. The youngster hauled in 44-of-54 targets for 445 receiving yards and an additional four touchdowns.
Although the Bills drafted RB Ray Davis out of Kentucky with their fourth-round selection, Cook doesn’t have a lot of competition in the backfield. Cook will likely see 250+ touches in 2024 as the Bills will rely more on the running game. However, Josh Allen could easily vulture some touchdowns near the goal line. Still, Cook should wrack up a ton of yardage and it’s fair to expect positive regression to the mean in terms of touchdown output. Outside of Allen, Cook is the team’s most intriguing player from a fantasy perspective.
Quarterback
QB JOSH ALLEN – STUD (LOW RISK)
Although he failed to throw for 30 touchdowns for the first time in four years, Josh Allen’s career-best 15 rushing scores helped lead him to another overall QB1 finish. Adversity is at hand in 2024, with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis gone. Second-round rookie WR Keon Coleman joins Curtis Samuel and standout TE Dalton Kincaid in a new-look offense, Meanwhile, the Bills fortified what was already a strength by selecting three offensive linemen in this year’s draft. That hints at a more run-based approach. That would suit Allen fine. Since entering the league he’s averaged 601 yards and 8.8 scores on the ground each season. ADVICE: QB1 In all formats
Running Backs
RB JAMES COOK – SOLID/SAFE PICK
Cook saw a big boost in touches and playing time after the Bills brought in Joe Brady to run the offense. From Week 10 on, Cook averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, including the playoffs. He really shined as a receiver, ranking eighth overall with 445 receiving yards and four scores. However, Cook had a whopping seven dropped passes and four fumbles and he has only rushed for two touchdowns in each of his two seasons. Additionally, the Bills invested a fourth-round pick Kentucky RB Ray Davis, who catches the ball well and can contribute in short yardage. ADVICE: Still on the RB1 radar but with some risk
RB RAY DAVIS – FANTASY HANDCUFF
ADVICE: Davis has the size to factor in on early downs and in short yardage right away. Buffalo had 21 RB carries inside the 5-yard line last season and James Cook only commanded five of those. Excellent late-round sleeper with RB2 value if Cook misses time.
Wide Receivers
WR CURTIS SAMUEL – BYE WEEK FILL-IN
Curtis Samuel has been remarkably consistent, posting WR44 and WR48 overall numbers in his final two seasons in Washington. Samuel ran the 12th-highest slot rate (68.7%) last season but with Khalil Shakir expected to take the majority of inside reps, Samuel will be thrust into perimeter duties. That’s a questionable role for a player who ranked 93rd in ADOT and 91st in yards per catch. The upgrade at quarterback potentially helps, but Samuel’s fantasy prospects would improve if he were utilized closer to the line of scrimmage. It remains to be seen how the Bills will employ their new addition. ADVICE: Middling WR4 with some modes value if he becomes Buffalo’s slot receiver
WR KHALIL SHAKIR – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED)
Khalil Shakir made big strides in his second season, with a pair of 100-yard games. Shakir took on a larger role in the final month of the season, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game in Buffalo’s final five contests (including playoffs). Josh Allen showed a real connection with his young receiver, boasting a league-best 95.6% catchable target rate and 133.6 QB Rating when targeting Shakir. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Shakir has a clear path to slot duties and a big boost in opportunities in his pivotal third season. Shakir is a popular late-round sleeper with WR3 upside. ADVICE: Shakir is one of the top late-round sleepers to target in 2024 fantasy drafts.
WR KEON COLEMAN – SUPER SLEEPER (HIGH RISK/POTENTIAL)
Buffalo’s staff was enamored with Keon Coleman throughout the draft process and got their man the opening pick of Round 2. Coleman (6-3, 213) has excellent size, slot/perimeter versatility, and is an outstanding athlete who has the frame to be a potent red-zone weapon. And the Bills are counting on Coleman to be a significant part of their offense right away. After trading away Stefon Diggs and letting Gabe Davis depart, there is a surplus of targets available for Coleman from Day One. Coleman will play a big role right away with the top fantasy quarterback. That gives the rookie wideout WR3 value immediately. ADVICE: Dark horse to lead his team in targets, giving him strong sleeper appeal
Tight Ends
TE DALTON KINCAID – STUD (LOW RISK)
A league-high 73% of Buffalo’s air yards from last season are available, and Buffalo also ranks second with 317 vacated targets. Dalton Kincaid. is expected to make a jump in his second season and will be in a prime position to command a healthy share of those opportunities. Kincaid showed real promise in the final month of the 2023 season, finishing as the TE7 and TE2 in the Bils’ final two regular-season games. Look for Kincaid to improve on his 17.7% target share and to develop into more of a red-zone weapon to replace Stefon Diggs. ADVICE: Kincaid is in prime position to see a boost in targets and enter the Tier-1 conversation
TE DAWSON KNOX – LOW POTENTIAL
ADVICE: Knox was usurped by Dalton Kincaid and only produced two games with 10-plus fantasy points. He’s only on the TE2 radar if Kincaid misses time. In conclusion, there is no reason to draft Knox.
Place Kicker
PK TYLER BASS – SOLID/SAFE PICK
Bass fell off again last year. His kicking point totals have now declined for four consecutive seasons. We’re guessing that slide will stop, as the Bills probably won’t be as effective at scoring touchdowns with all the new personnel. That should lead to a few more field goal tries for Bass. He projects to be a quality top-10 fantasy option.
Defense/Special Teams
BUFFALO BILLS – SOLID/SAFE PICK
The Bills ranked ninth in defense last year and allowed the fourth-fewest points. They racked up a healthy 54 sacks, 30 turnovers, and scored a pair of DST TDs. Above all, Kalil Shakir profiles as one of the better kick return men in football. Continue to view the Bills as a locked-in top-10 fantasy unit that should be startable in all formats.
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