Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values.
This NFL rookie running back is projected to have a MAJOR IMPACT by Oddsmakers, making him a BIG VALUE for Zero RB builds
A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook.
Over the next several months here at Fulltime Fantasy, I will be highlighting players that are witnessing significant movement in their 2024 NFL betting markets.
In my first installment, I will be focusing on Carolina rookie running back Jonathon Brooks.
The Panthers traded up in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft to draft the former Texas standout as the first running back off the board at No. 46 overall.
Jonathon Brooks is one of the best RBs in College Football 💨
The #1 RB Prospect according to PFFs Big Board 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DS67d4q5nx
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) February 1, 2024
While many fantasy managers may be hesitant to invest in a back coming off a torn ACL last November, it is wise to pay attention to new coach Dave Canales’ intent of his offense to focus on running the ball.
Check out our detailed Rookie Scouting Profile of Jonathon Brooks here.
VEGAS ODDSMAKERS RESPOND TO COACHES RECENT COMMENTS
Dave Canales to Jonathon Brooks: “The intent of our offense is to run the ball.”
— Joe Person (@josephperson) May 10, 2024
Oddsmakers are paying attention to Canales’s offensive game plan. The talented back, who was installed with a rushing yards betting projection of 500.5, has witnessed the biggest move of any running back in the rushing yards market.
The 6-foot-1, 216-pound physical back now sits with a betting demand of 775.5 yards at DraftKings.
“A MOVE THIS BIG IS ABSURD, YOU DON’T SEE IT VERY OFTEN.” -Frank Taddeo
When oddsmakers make a move of 275 yards, fantasy managers need to take note. Brooks, who currently has an ADP of RB28, came off the board at 7.12 in a Circa Las Vegas Fantasy Championship Draft held on May 30.
Due to playing behind Bijan Robinson in his first two collegiate seasons, Brooks only enjoyed one season as the featured call carrier for the Longhorns. In 2023, Brooks rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 10 games before suffering the season-ending knee injury.
In Carolina, Brooks only finds veterans Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. That is far from an imposing backfield which will easily result in Brooks taking over lead duties by the start of the season.
Canales’s vow to focus on the rushing attack to help Bryce Young, combined with the sizable move by oddsmakers, means fantasy managers should not be afraid to invest in the powerful rookie as a viable RB2/Flex option this season with only middle-round draft capital demand.
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