2024 Colorado Rockies
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Colorado Rockies Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Rockies have five consecutive losing seasons while being miles away from the Dodgers in the NL West. They finished 168.5 games out of first place over this span (43 and 41 in 2022 and 2023). Colorado has five playoff appearances in the team’s 31-year history. In their only trip to the World Series, the Boston Red Sox swept them in four games in 2007.
Colorado had the worst ERA (5.67) in baseball. They allowed the most hits (1,599), the second-most home runs (234), and the least strikeouts (1,129). Their bullpen had 31 wins, 33 losses, and 32 saves over 647.0 innings with a 5.41 ERA (30th) and 596 strikeouts. The Rockies finished 18th runs (721), 26th in home runs (163), and 20th in RBIs (685). They stole 76 bases on 101 attempts (75.2%).
In the offseason, they signed C Jacob Stallings, OF Bradley Zimmer, and SP Dakota Hudson. Colorado acquired SP Cal Quantrill for C Kody Huff. The Rockies moved on from SP Chase Anderson, SP Chris Flexen, RP Brent Suter, and C Austin Wynns.
With no pitchers with even league-average ability, it will be another long year for Rockies’ fans. They are projected to have a bottom-three starting rotation and bullpen with no stars moving through their system.
Their offensive dreams lie in the hands of OF Nolan Jones and SS Ezequiel Tovar. Colorado hopes 1B Kris Bryant can have a pulse for one season and 2B Brendan Rodgers can stay healthy. The rest of the lineup will be in flux, with a rotation of player looking to make their major league mark.
Starting Lineup
OF Charlie Blackmon
Over his last four seasons, Blackmon hit .275 with 224 runs, 43 home runs, 238 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 1,624 at-bats. He finished 98th (-1.01) and 90th (-0.66) in FPGscore for hitters in 2021 and 2022. His walk rate (9.4) was the best of his career last year while being the most challenging to strike out (13.3%).
In 2022, Blackmon hit .241 over his first 166 at-bats last year with 23 runs, seven home runs, and 23 RBIs. He regained his form over the next two months (.296/28/9/36 over 203 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat lost value in August and September (.248 with nine runs, no home runs, and 19 RBIs over 161 at-bats). Blackmon’s only issue late in the season was a hamstring injury in August (four missed games) and a torn meniscus in his left knee (he sat out the final eight contests).
He missed about two months last season with a broken right hand. Over his first 211 at-bats, Blackmon hit .265 with 34 runs, five home runs, and 26 RBIs. Other than batting average (.297), his bat was quiet after returning from his hand injury (23 runs, three home runs, 14 RBIs, and four steals). Despite his fading games, Colorado signed him to a one-year deal for $13 million with some incentives.
His RBI rate (17) has been favorable over the previous five seasons, but Blackmon has never had more than 382 RBI chances in any year. He lost his momentum with his average hit rate (1.580) over the past five seasons, which was well below his success in power from 2016 to 2019 (1.772). In addition, his contact batting average (.330) over the past three seasons fell well below his previous four years (.418, .370, .391, and .379).
His HR/FB rate (6.5) remains well below his peak seasons (between 16.2 and 19.6). Blackmon had an improved flyball rate (40.3). He finished with a weaker exit velocity (86.4) and hard-hit rate (31.5) while only barreling 39 balls in 2022 and 2023.
Fantasy Outlook: The days of being an edge in runs with plenty of power and RBIs are nothing more than a dream. Blackmon will be the Rockies DH this year, potentially leading to more at-bats and a healthier season. His ADP (439) in late February puts him in the free-agent pool in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. With 500 at-bats, Blackmon looks like a .270/75/15/65/5 player.
SS Ezequiel Tovar
Tovar signed with the Rockies at age 16, making him one of the youngest players at each level of the minors. Coming out of the COVID-19 season, his bat showed growth at A Ball (.309/60/11/54/21 over 298 at-bats). Tovar walked only 14 times (4.3%) while being challenging to strikeout (11.7). He stalled at High A (.239/19/4/18/3 over 134 at-bats) in 2021.
His bat showed more potential at AA in 2022 (.318 over 264 at-bats with 39 runs, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases). His walk rate (8.5) beat the league average with a step back in his strikeout rate (21.7). Tovar went 7-for-21 in his brief time at AAA (three runs, one home run, and two RBIs), and he had 33 at-bats (.212/2/1/2) with the Rockies.
Colorado gave him his AAA development year in the majors last year. His volume at-bats led to competitive stats in four categories (79/15/73/11), but Tovar battled his approach all year (strikeout rate – 27.4 and walk rate – 4.1). As a result, his batting average (.253) was a liability. He struggled in April (.214 with 10 runs, no home runs, and eight RBIs) while helping fantasy teams with his combined stats in May, June, and August (.280 with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). Tovar didn’t hit a home run in September over 111 at-bats.
His flyball rate (33.8) and HR/FB rate (10.6) were higher in 2022 in the minors. He ranked below the league average in exit velocity (88.0) and hard-hit rate (36.2), but Tovar had 34 barrels. His home stats (.276/47/7/43/3 over 297 at-bats) were better than his road splits except for home runs (8) and steals (8).
Fantasy Outlook: When looking at his profile on Baseball Reference, Tovar is listed as 6’0” and 162 lbs. Tovar’s body has matured to a more robust visual profile. His ADP (185) in the NFBC in late February has a value feel. He finished 94th in FPGscore (-1.19) for hitters in his rookie season. With a major league season under his belt, his strikeout rate should improve, along with adding a few more home runs and, potentially, a handful of steals. For someone cheating the shortstop position (19th option), Tovar should be a player of interest. Next step: .270 with 85 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 15 steals. His walk rate (4.1) isn’t ideal to hit second in the batting order, but the Rockies don’t have many better options on their roster.
OF Nolan Jones
The Indians drafted Jones in the second round in the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over seven seasons in the minors, he hit .280 with 343 runs, 72 home runs, 304 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over 1,888 at-bats. His bat shined in 2018 between A and High A (.283/69/19/66/2), but Jones needed three seasons of development time at AAA (.274/142/34/133/19 over 704 at-bats).
In his first season with the Rockies, he was a much better player at AAA (.356/38/12/42/5 over 149 at-bats). His walk rate (17.6) was elite and aligned with his minor league career (16.3). Jones struck out 26.9% of the time (23.0 in 2023 at AAA). Colorado called him up in late May. His production was relatively quiet over his first 165 at-bats (.273 with 22 runs, nine home runs, 22 RBIs, and seven steals) with a high strikeout rate (33.5). Jones helped fantasy teams climb up the standings over the final two months (.317/38/11/40/13 over 202 at-bats). His strikeout rate (26.8) moved closer to his minor league career.
Between AAA and the majors last season, Jones hit .314 with 98 runs, 32 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases over 516 at-bats. He walked 86 times and had 169 strikeouts. His contact batting average (.467) was electric but not repeatable (.408 in the minors and .379 at AAA before last year). Jones’s average hit rate (1.826) with the Rockies was higher than his time at AAA (1.757) in 2021 and 2022, with each outcome supporting 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.
His exit velocity (90.1 – 116th) and hard-hard (41.3 – 162nd) didn’t create a winning edge. He averaged 417 feet on his home runs (15th) while having a low launch angle (9.8) and flyball rate (33.3).
Fantasy Outlook: Jones presents an intriguing dilemma for drafters this year. His batting average doesn’t look repeatable based on his high number of strikeouts, and a correction is expected in his contact batting average. Even with a weaker swing path for power, 30+ home runs look achievable when adding in his home ballpark. Speed feels like a wild card, but Jones should get 10 to 15 bags based on his overall career resume.
His ADP (55) is ahead of many proven bats, but I understand the attraction. Last year was the only time in his career with more than 500 at-bats, so I’ll call that a ding. Jones drilled lefties at AAA (.331 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs over 151 at-bats) and majors (.314 with seven home runs and 19 RBIs over 118 at-bats) in 2023. Typically, I would take the Eddie Gillis approach and want to see more, but he checks too many upside boxes to ignore, especially adding his new starting opportunity with the Rockies. Let’s go .280 with 90 runs, 30 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 15 steals, with hopes of Jones beating those stats in each category.
OF Kris Bryant
After burying fantasy teams over his first 18 games in 2020 (11-for-62 with nine runs, two home runs, and four RBI), Bryant landed on the injured list for two weeks with a left wrist injury. In September, he battled an elbow issue after getting by a pitch and a slight oblique injury. Bryant ended the season with more emptiness in his bat (.232 over 69 at-bats with two home runs and seven RBI).
In 2021, Bryant didn’t reach his previous top form, but he finished with competitive stats in runs (86), home runs (25), and RBIs (73) for his sliding price point in drafts. He ended with a neutral batting average (.265) while adding steals (10) back into his equation.
Unfortunately, after signing with the Rockies, his bat was a disaster in 2022. Bryant helped in batting average (.306) while on a reasonable pace in runs (28). Only five balls left the park, with failure with runners on base (RBI rate – 8). His contact batting average (.368) aligned with his previous career path, but Bryant posted a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.551). He battled a back injury in late April, leading to about a month on the injured list. After two games, the same issue cost him another 35 days. From June 29th to July 31st, over 89 at-bats, his bat was on the rise (.348/17/5/10). Unfortunately, a battle with plantar fasciitis led to no playing time over the final two months.
Last year, the saga of the fading Bryant continued due to another 82 missed games with a bruised left heel and broken left index finger. Over the first two months, with minimal missed games (6), he hit .263 with 21 runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs over 190 at-bats. His walk rate (9.8) and strikeout rate (17.3) over this span were in favorable ranges and not far off his career path.
His exit velocity (85.7), hard-hit rate (31.5), and barrel rate (6.0) were disgustingly low over the past two seasons and well below his first two years in the majors (89.7/89.3 and 43.8/38.9). Bryant earned extra value in home runs due to his flyball rate (42.4) and launch angle (17.8) in his career.
Since 2016, Bryant hasn’t had more than 380 RBI chances in a season. In addition, his RBI rate (14.1 in his career) has been well below a top-run producer over the past six seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: Bryant takes enough walks to hit second in the Rockies lineup. The luster of bat appears to be running on empty despite being owed $131 million over the next five seasons. His ADP (284) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship has drafters using the theory – you take him, no, you take him, and I’m not going to take him due to his fading bat and injury path. I’m not excited, but a move to first base could lead to a healthier season. Bryant will hit in a favorable part of the batting order with more help expected in runs than RBIs. He came into last season as a career .279 hitter, so the Colorado inflation hasn’t been reflected in his batting average at this point in his career. Let’s go with .280/75/20/70/5 as a baseline with 500 at-bats and pray for 150 starts and better-than-expected results.
3B Ryan McMahon
Despite having one more at-bats in 2022 than in 2021, McMahon only beat his previous stats in one roto category (steals – 7). He finished with a similar contact batting average (.350 – .352 in 2021), but his strikeout rate (26.5) failed to build on its growth in 2021 (24.7 – 27.9 in his career). McMahon did take more walks (10.1%) than his previous two years. His slide in runs came from a weaker lineup hitting behind him in the batting order, resulting in a drop in run rate (35 – 41 in 2021 and 42 in 2020). McMahon had an identical batting average (.246) before and after the All-Star break. He saved his power stats over the final two months (.271/29/12/24 over 192 at-bats).
Last season, McMahon lost his approach, leading to a sharp rise in his strikeout rate (31.6). He posted a new top in his walk rate (10.9). He had four to five home runs in each of the first five months of the season, with his best overall play coming in May and June (.287/32/8/27/5 over 195 at-bats). After the All-Star break, McMahon was losing investment (.211 with 33 runs, nine home runs, and 25 RBIs over 232 at-bats). Lefties held him to a .191 batting average with four home runs and 12 RBIs over 162 at-bats.
McMahon ranked 79th in exit velocity (90.8), 107th in hard-hit rate (44.2), and 84th in barrel rate (11.4). He finished ninth in home runs distance (420). His flyball rate (33.5) remains low while ranking much higher in his HR/FB rate (19.2).
Fantasy Outlook: The script for McMahon has been written. He struggles on the road, and his bat has less value against lefties. So play him at home against right-handed pitching, painting a player that will only be helpful in about 57 games. His ADP (231) fits his steady profile. His first order of business is getting his strikeouts under control. Playing time tends to be his friend, but his splits invite a platoon role.
2B Brendan Rodgers
The Rockies selected him third overall in the 2015 MLB June MLB Draft. Over seven seasons in the minors, Rodgers hit .297 with 252 runs, 67 home runs, 249 RBIs, and 24 steals over 1,575 at-bats.
Rodgers was a path to start for Colorado on opening day in 2021, but a hamstring injury knocked him out of the lineup for seven weeks. His best play came in June (.308 with eight runs, four home runs, and 15 RBIs over 78 at-bats) and September (.299/17/5/16 over 117 at-bats).
In 2022, Rodgers missed some time in April with a back issue, and a hamstring injury cost him the season’s final two weeks. From May 1st to August 20th, he hit .314 with 57 runs, 11 home runs, and 57 RBIs. Rodgers played well against left-handed pitching (.317/30/8/28 over 180 at-bats), but his bat must improve vs. righties (.239 over 347 at-bats with 42 runs, five home runs, and 35 RBIs) to become an elite bat. Rodgers also offered empty stats on the road (.218/26/3/17 over 262 at-bats).
Last season, a left shoulder injury (required surgery) knocked him out of the lineup for four months. He had empty stats (.218/8/0/10) over his first 78 at-bats. In September, Rodgers hit .290 with 13 runs, four home runs, and 10 RBIs. His strikeout rate (21.4) was about the league average while offering a short walk rate (5.7). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.500) was a five-year low.
Rodgers continues to have a high ground ball rate (53.3), leading to weakness in his flyball rate (29.9).
Fantasy Outlook: At this point in his career, he profiles as only a 75/15/70 player with a neutral batting average. His minor league resume supports an uptick in power. Rodgers hasn’t had a steal or attempt in his five years with the Rockies. His ADP (351) in the NFBC is reasonable out at second base for a team build with speed at other positions. He will outperform his price point with a healthy season. His engine roars like a Ferrari, but most won’t take him for a fantasy ride. At the very least, Rodgers will be helpful at home (.297/90/15/84 over 593 at-bats).
C Elias Diaz
Diaz flashed upside in 2018 for the Pirates in a part-time role when he hit .286 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI over 252 at-bats. In 2019, his bat drew some attention in the fantasy market as a C2 in deep leagues, but Diaz lost his way (.241 with two home runs and 28 RBI over 303 at-bats). His season ended with a minor right knee injury.
In 2020, his bat was quiet again for Colorado (.235 over 68 at-bats with two home runs and nine RBI). However, Diaz proved to be a viable backend catching option the following season, thanks to his career-high in runs (52), home runs (18), and RBI (44).
He underperformed expectations in 2022 (.228/29/9/61 over 351 at-bats) based on his ADP (244). Last year, Diaz had the best opportunity (486 at-bats) of his career, leading to a new top in hits (130) and RBIs (72). His bat had a weakness against lefties (.185/15/4/14 over 130 at-bats) while playing much better than expected vs. right-handed pitching (.298 with 10 home runs and 58 RBIs over 356 at-bats ~ 24.1% strikeout rate). He hit .335 over his first 161 at-bats with 21 runs, six home runs, and 27 RBIs (.234/27/45/1 for the rest of the year over 325 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Even with 486 at-bats, Diaz scored only 48 runs. His hot start and RBI total carried his fantasy value, but neither area is repeatable. Diaz’s contact batting average (.353) was well above his previous three seasons (.302, .297, and .299), suggesting a pullback in his batting average in 2024. His ADP (258) in the NFBC ranks him 22nd at catcher. When adding a regression in playing time, Diaz doesn’t have a 50/15/50 skill set. Overpriced.
OF Sean Bouchard
Over six seasons in the minors, Bouchard hit .276 with 290 runs, 69 home runs, 283 RBIs, and 61 stolen bases over 1,643 at-bats. He missed almost all of last season with a ruptured left biceps. His bat started to show growth in 2022 at AAA (.300 with 61 runs, 20 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases over 260 at-bats). His walk rate (10.3) graded well in the minors, with a below-par strikeout rate (24.6).
Bouchard has 112 at-bats of experience with the Rockies, leading to surprising results (20 runs, seven home runs, and 18 RBIs. He whiffed 27.9% of the time with an elite walk rate (17.9). His contact batting average has been high in the minors (.383) and off the chart with Colorado (.466).
Fantasy Outlook: The Rockies will give him a chance to win a starting corner outfield job in 2024. His profile is similar to Nolan Jones, with a lower pedigree and shorter resume of success. He will be found in the free-agent pool until Bouchard makes the opening-day roster. Possible 25+ home runs and 10+ steals if given a full-time starting job.
OF Brenton Doyle
After playing well at Shepherdstown in college over three seasons (.380/187/32/149/52 over 618 at-bats), the Rockies drafted Doyle in the fourth round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. His bat played well at rookie ball (.383 with 42 runs, eight home runs, 33 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases over 180 at-bats) in his first year in the minors.
Over the last three years, Doyle gained 946 at-bats of experience between High A, AA, and AAA (.268/164/47/132/45). Unfortunately, better pitching has exposed his approach (strikeout rate – 31.4). The Rockies called him up to the majors in 2023 after only 49 at-bats at AAA (.306 with 12 runs, five home runs, eight RBIs, and one steal).
With Colorado, Doyle had further regression in his strikeout rate (35.0) and a weaker contact batting average (.327 – .428 in the minors). From June 3rd to September 4th, he hit .159 with 23 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and nine steals over 227 at-bats. His season ended with more success over his final 79 at-bats (.279/9/2/16/5).
Fantasy Outlook: His combination of power and speed doesn’t invite a closer look, but Doyle has much to prove in the majors before being trusted as a fantasy asset. His ADP (392) in late February puts him in the free-agent in almost all redrafted formats. He hit .168 at home last year with 26 runs, six home runs, 22 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases over 174 at-bats, so the micromanage card feels more like a joker than an ace.
Bench Options
1B Elehuris Montero
Montero is another young player in the Rockies’ system who came into the pros at 16. Over eight seasons in the minors, he hit .281 with 352 runs, 90 home runs, 380 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 2,175 at-bats. His bat played well at AAA (.317/99/36/119/4 over 505 at-bats). His strikeout rate (21.0) and walk rate (9.0) were slightly better than the league average.
With Colorado in 2022, Montero flashed power (21 runs, six home runs, and 20 RBIs over 176 at-bats) but struggled to make contact (32.4% strikeout rate). As a result, his batting average (.233) had more risk.
His played time increased in the majors last season, but Montero had a more challenging time putting the ball in play (strikeout rate – 36.2). Over his first 118 at-bats in a part-time role, he hit .220 with 13 runs, three home runs, and 16 RBIs while whiffing 49 times (39.2%). The Rockies gave him a better opportunity over the final two months (.259 with 27 runs, eight home runs, and 23 RBIs over 166 at-bats). He lowered his strikeout rate to 34.1% over this span.
His hard-hit rate (44.3) is in a better place than his exit velocity (88.3). Montero only had 12 barrels last year (10 in 2022).
Fantasy Outlook: Montero looks better suited to play first base while having defensive limitations wherever he plays. There is upside in power, and his AAA resume suggests a better approach. His contact batting average tends to be close to .400, offsetting some of his batting average risk. He is only a flier until he controls the strike zone better.
1B Hunter Goodman
Goodman had three years of experience at Memphis (.323 with 105 runs, 42 home runs, 149 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 511 at-bats) before getting drafted by the Rockies in the fourth round in the 2021 June Amateur Draft. In 2022, over three levels of the minors, he hit .295 with 97 runs, 36 home runs, 106 RBIs, and six steals over 523 at-bats.
Last year, Goodman had follow-through in power between AA and AAA (.259 with 68 runs, 34 home runs, and 111 RBIs) while only having 410 at-bats. His strikeout rate (25.0) was higher than the league average. The Rockies gave him 70 at-bats where he excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 26), but Goodman only hit .200 with a much weaker strikeout rate (31.2).
Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons, Goodman played 32 games at catchers, 69 at first base, and 45 in the outfield. His defense projects as a liability everywhere, pointing to him being a potential DH option if Charlie Blackmon has an injury. He has plenty of thump in his bat, and his approach should improve with more at-bats in the majors. If he happens to earn catch eligibility and finds a starting job at another position, Goodman would be a significant edge at the C2 position. I like his power, and I sense some clutch ability, so I’ll be following him this year.
Starting Pitching
SP Kyle Freeland
Freeland finished with an identical ERA (4.33) in 2020 and 2021, with a slight fade in his WHIP (1.417) in the second season. He missed the first seven weeks in 2021 with a left shoulder injury. Five starts into the year, Freeland allowed 22 runs, 47 baserunners, and nine home runs over 20.2 innings. He flew under fantasy manager’s radar over his next 12 starts (5-4 with 2.57 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, .239 BAA, and 68 strikeouts over 70 innings). A hip issue in early September led to a fade in his stats over his final 30 innings (4.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP).
Consistency was a problem for Freeland in 2022. He allowed five runs or more in six of his first 18 starts, leading to poor stats in ERA (4.96) and WHIP (1.407) over 101.2 innings. He was easier to hit (.285 BAA) over his final 13 appearances, but Freeland had more success in ERA (3.95), thanks to allowing three runs or fewer in 10 matchups.
The further demise of Freeland happened in 2023. He made 29 starts, with seven resulting in four runs or more. His ERA (5.03), WHIP (1.471), HR/9 rate (1.7), and K rate (5.4) show the direction of his arm. He had an ERA higher than 4.00 in every month in 2023.
His average fastball (89.0) was a career-low and more than two mph lower than best seasons. Freeland only succeeded with his slider (.234 BAA) and four-seamer (.241 BAA). Batters crushed his sinker (.362) and changeup (.405 BAA). He struggled against right-handed (.312 with 26 home runs over 488 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: With a fading strikeout rate, no-out pitches vs. righties, and a diminishing fastball, Freeland falls into the disastrous inning-eater category. The Rockies owe him $47 million over the next three seasons, while the fantasy market won’t give him the time of day. Next…
SP Cal Quantrill
After a successful year between starting and the bullpen (2.89 ERA and 121 strikeouts over 149.2 innings), Quantrill posted the best season of his career in the majors in 2022, thanks to his 15 wins over 32 starts. His walk rate (2.3) showed growth, but he struggled to finish off batters with strikeouts (6.2 per nine).
Quantrill didn’t offer an edge against right-handed batters (.274 over 390 at-bats with 11 home runs). He struggled over 10 starts in June and July (4.40 ERA, 1.448 WHIP, .297 BAA, 11 home runs, and 38 strikeouts over 57.1 innings). After another dull showing to start August (four runs, seven baserunners, and two home runs over six innings), Quantrill turned into a new man over his final 12 starts (8-0 with a 2.21 ERA, .226 BAA, and 53 strikeouts over 69.1 innings).
In 2023, his arm was a liability over his first eight starts (5.61 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, and seven home runs over 59.1 innings). Right shoulder inflammation led to a month on the injured list and a second stint two starts later (11 runs, 19 baserunners, and four strikeouts over 7.2 innings). When returning in September, he posted a 2.76 ERA over 32.2 innings despite a lower WHIP (1.256) and 13 free passes.
His average fastball (94.0) aligned with 2022. Quantrill added a split-finger fastball (.222 BAA) while succeeding with his curveball (.200 BAA). The rest of his pitches had less value, highlighted by his rise in walks (3.2 per nine) and fading strikeout rate (5.2)
Fantasy Outlook: A bum right shoulder and the move to a hitter’s park should be doom for Quantrill in the fantasy market. His pitches lack life, and batters will hit more home runs this year.
SP Austin Gomber
Gomber pitched well at every stop in his minor league career, leading to a 45-25 record over seven seasons with a 2.98 ERA and 566 strikeouts over 574 innings. His walk rate (2.7) was favorable, with strength in his strikeout rate (8.9).
After pitching well over 12 games in AAA (3.42 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 68.1 innings) in 2018, the Cardinals called him up to the majors to add a lefty in the bullpen. His arm was up and down over 29 appearances (6-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.507 WHIP). A biceps injury and shoulder issue cost him most of the 2019 season.
In 2020, Gomber finished with a 1.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 29 innings while battling his command (4.7 walks per nine). The Rockies acquired him in the deal for Nolan Arenado.
He pitched well over his first 17 starts in 2021 (3.69 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 90.1 innings). Gomber missed about a month in midsummer with a left forearm injury. A back issue may have been the reason for his fade over his final six starts (21 runs, 48 base runners, and seven home runs over 25 innings).
His arm was a disaster over his first 12 starts in 2022 (6.43 ERA, 1.476 WHIP, and .296 BAA over 63 innings) despite allowing two runs or fewer in five games. Gomber had a 4.67 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts over his final 51.2 innings while seeing most of his action out of the bullpen.
Last year, he had a second consecutive season with failure in all areas. His strikeout rate (5.6) was the lowest of his career, with a rise in his home run rate (1.7). Right-handed batters (.278) hit 19 home runs over 439 at-bats. Gomber struggled to get lefties out (.372 with three home runs, seven RBI, and 10 walks over 113 at-bats). After an uptick in August (3.00 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 30.0 innings), he had more walks (11) than strikeouts (10) over 25.0 innings (4.68 ERA and 1.720 WHIP). His season ended with no starts in September due to a back injury.
He has a below-par fastball (90.7 mph) that was a career-low for the fourth consecutive year. Gomber only had one pitch of value (curveball – .236 BAA) and none vs. left-handed batters.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rockies’ starting rotation has multiple soft tossers with no value in strikeouts, pointing to offenses scoring many runs and hitting many home runs. Gomber has no fantasy value until he shows a significant step forward in his success on the mound. His two early forearm issues and his recent failure point to TJ surgery.
SP Ryan Feltner
After a disappointing season at A ball in 2019 (9-9 with a 5.07 ERA, 1.538 WHIP, and 116 strikeouts over 119 innings), Feltner flashed a much higher season over 21 starts in 2021. He went 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts over 112.2 innings.
His walk rate (3.1) and strikeouts (10.5) had more growth in 2022 at AAA, but Feltner had some regression in his ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.297). The Rockies gave him 19 starts and one relief appearance, leading to failure across the board. Feltner allowed too many home runs (1.5 per nine) and struggled to strikeout batters (7.8 per nine) while being easier to hit (.266 BAA).
He took a line drive to the head in mid-May last year, leading to four months on the injured list. He pitched well in only three (no runs over 16.2 innings with 17 strikeouts) of his 10 starts. Feltner allowed 28 runs, 58 baserunners, and two home runs over his other 25.2 innings. His season ended with a right elbow injury.
His average fastball (95.3) was a career-high. He threw two low-volume pitches with success (show-me curveball – .182 BAA and changeup – .118 BAA) with a workable slider (.247 BAA) once Feltner gains more experience in the majors. The first step in his development comes with better command (5.8 walks per nine) of his fastball in and out of the strike zone (four-seamer – .274 BAA and sinker – .431 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Feltner doesn’t have a higher ceiling, and his elbow issue is a concern. Unfortunately, he may be their best Rockies’ starting pitcher based on my research of the top four potential options. His home will be the waiver wire in 2024.
SP Dakota Hudson
Hudson had success in ERA (3.35) and wins (16) over 30 starts in 2019 for St. Louis, but he killed fantasy teams with his WHIP (1.408) with weakness in strikeouts (136). In 2020, he continued to pitch well based on his ERA (2.77) over 39 innings, with some improvement in his walk rate (3.5). Unfortunately, he blew out his right elbow in September, requiring TJ surgery.
The Cardinals gave him 27.1 innings of work in 2021 between the minors and majors. Hudson allowed four runs and 28 baserunners while picking up 16 strikeouts.
Unfortunately, his arm didn’t respond as well as expected over the past two seasons due to continued failure in his walk rate (3.9) and emptiness in his strikeout rate (5.0). Hudson finished with a losing ERA (4.64) and a disaster WHIP (1.466). He missed some time in April last season with a neck issue at AAA (6.00 ERA, 1.854 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 48.0 innings).
His average fastball (91.5) was miles from 2018 (97.4). Hudson featured a cutter (.247 BAA), sinker (.340 BAA), and four-seamer (.295). He barely threw his slider (.267 BAA) and changeup (.200 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Hudson is a groundball pitcher (51.5% – 55.1% in his career) that will help control the damage in home runs for the Rockies. He lacks command, and strikeouts have never been an asset in his career. Just another arm in Colorado’s starting rotation that wouldn’t pitch for any other teams in the majors.
SP Peter Lambert
Over eight seasons in the minors, Lambert went 26-33 with a 3.96 ERA and 473 strikeouts over 554.1 innings. He tends to have a low walk rate (2.3) while still figuring out how to strike out batters (7.7 per nine).
Lambert looked to be improved at AA in 2018 (8-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 75 strikeouts over 92.2 innings), but he did lose his way at AAA (5.06 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts over 115.2 innings).
In his first chance in the majors in 2019, Lambert failed to make an impact (7.25 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 89.1 innings). Over his 19 starts with the Rockies, he allowed three runs or fewer in 10 games. His walk rate (3.6), strikeout rate (5.7), and HR/9 rate (1.8) all came in as liabilities.
After blowing out his right elbow in July in 2020, Lambert only pitched 30.1 innings (20 runs, 55 baserunners, and five home runs) over the following two years due to his recovery from TJ surgery. He battled his right elbow with a forearm issue as well in 2022.
Lambert struggled last year over his seven starts at AAA (4.15 ERA, 1.569 WHIP, 14 walks, and 21 strikeouts over 21.2 innings). The Rockies pitched him out of the bullpen in May and June, leading to 24 runs, 53 baserunners, and nine home runs over 31.1 innings. Surprisingly, he pitched well over in July and August in the starting rotation (3.60 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts over 45.0 innings). After two poor showings (10 runs, 17 baserunners, and three home runs over 11.0 innings), Colorado shut him down with a right biceps issue.
His average fastball (93.4) was about league average. He had an upside changeup (.226 BAA). Lambert offered three below-average pitches (four-seamer – .283 BAA, slider – .271 BAA, and curveball – .263 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: His late success last year points to Lambert earning more stats for the Rockies in 2024. A second forearm/biceps issue could signify a second TJ surgery. His walk rate (2.9) was a plus last year with Colorado, but he struggled with home runs (18 over 87.1 innings – 1.9 per nine).
SP Ryan Rolison
The Rockies drafted Rolison with the 22nd overall pick in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over two seasons at Mississippi, he went 16-7 with a 3.45 ERA and 84 strikeouts over 159 innings.
Rolison looked sharp over 29.0 innings at rookie ball in 2018 (1.86 ERA and 34 strikeouts) and A Ball in 2019 (0.61 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 14.2 innings). After a push to High A in 2019, his arm didn’t look right (4.87 ERA and 118 strikeouts over 116.1 innings). Rolison posted a favorable walk rate (2.7) and strikeout rate (9.3).
In 2021, a hand injury led to about six weeks on the injured list. Rolison pitched well over three starts at AA (3.07 ERA, two walks, and 20 strikeouts over 14.2 innings). However, he never found his stride over his final 57.0 innings (5.84 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and eight home runs).
He missed all of 2022 due to surgery on his left shoulder in June. Last year, Rolison only made four starts in the minors due to a slower-than-expected recovery from his shoulder issue.
His fastball came in at 89.6 mph while featuring a curveball, changeup, and slider as his secondary pitches.
Fantasy Outlook: The Rockies suggested his shoulder looked healthy in early spring training. Rolison doesn’t look ready to help in the majors. The Rockies should start him at AAA, hoping to rekindle his career. He doesn’t have much blocking him from the backend of their rotation.
Bullpen
RP Justin Lawrence
Lawrence had a losing resume over his seven seasons in the minors. He went 12-23 with a 4.90 ERA, 1.425 WHIP, 274 strikeouts, and 39 saves over 259.0 innings. His only success at AAA came in 2022 (3.07 ERA, 1.023 WHIP, 49 strikeouts, and one save over 29.1 innings).
After failing in 2021 and 2022 with the Rockies (4-1 with a 6.52 ERA, 1.787 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts over 59.1 innings), Lawrence pitched much better last season (3.72 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, and 78 strikeouts over 75.0 innings) while picking up 11 saves. His walk rate (4.3) remains a liability. Lawrence had a 5.22 ERA and 1.705 WHIP after the All-Star break over 29.1 innings with 33 strikeouts.
His average fastball (95.4) was about one mph below 2022. He offers an elite slider (.139 BAA) while battling his sinker (.317 BAA) that had less value against right-handed batters (.381 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Lawrence is the first Rockies pitcher to get drafted in the high-stakes market this year. He has an ADP of 384. I have no faith in his arm, and the 11 saves next to his name on the stat sheet are only a trap. He is an easy avoid even with no one else standing out in this bullpen.
RP Gavin Hollowell
The Rockies added Hollowell in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at St. Johns, he went 8-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 119 strikeouts while converting 19 saves. His arm lost value in his senior season, leading to a 4.23 ERA and 1.435 WHIP over 38.1 innings with 48 strikeouts.
That same season at rookie ball with Colorado, Hollowell had an excellent rebound in all areas (3-0 over 18.2 innings with 30 strikeouts and seven saves).
Over his first two seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.85 ERA, 97 strikeouts, and 21 saves over 72.2 innings. In his first six games in the majors in 2022, Hollowell struggled in three appearances (six runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over seven innings with eight strikeouts).
Last year, he started the season on the injured list with a right forearm issue. Hollowell had a 3.38 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts over his first 16.0 innings, mostly in the minors. The Rockies called him up in late June, leading to failure over 13.1 innings (10 runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs). Colorado returned him to AAA (3.86 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 9.1 innings). He had more struggles in his second chance in the majors (11 runs, 26 baserunners, and five home runs over 18.1 innings).
His average fastball (93.5) was about league average. He had success with his slider (.207 BAA) and four-seamer (.149 BAA), but batters smashed his sinker (.343 BAA). Hollowell had issues with his walk rate (4.8) and getting lefties out (.340 BAA with five home runs over 47 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite his failure in the majors, Hollowell pitched well in the minors (2.98 ERA and 154 strikeouts over 114.2 innings) while securing 30 saves. He shouldn’t be drafted in any format until he proves he can get batters out and better command (his walk rate was 2.8 in the minors).
RP Jalen Beeks
Beeks pitched well over seven seasons in the minors (36-30 with a 3.65 ERA and 528 strikeouts over 552.0 innings), highlighted by his success at AAA (3.49 ERA over 219.1 innings with 251 strikeouts). He struggled over his first two seasons in the majors (11-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 131 strikeouts over 155 innings) with a high walk rate (3.7) and weakness in his strikeout rate (7.6).
After 12 relief appearances in 2020 (3.26 ERA, four walks, and 26 strikeouts over 19.1 innings), Beeks blew out his left elbow (TJ surgery). He finished 2022 with a career-best ERA (2.80) and WHIP (1.164) over 61.0 innings.
Last year, Beeks struggled in April (7.43 ERA, eight walks, and eight strikeouts over 13.1 innings). He regained his form in May (three runs, 16 baserunners, and 19 strikeouts over 15.0 innings). For the remainder of the year, his arm had no value over short innings with Tampa while failing to regain his form at AAA.
His average fastball (94.2) was above his career average. Beeks had a winning changeup (.230 BAA) with some growth in his cutter (.172 BAA). Beeks offered a below-bar four-seamer (.273 BAA with five home runs).
Fantasy Outlook: Beeks doesn’t look attractive, but he has some success in the majors while offering strikeout ability. His role is unknown in 2024, so I went with a dark horse flier for saves with the Rockies.
This 2024 Colorado Rockies Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
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