2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]
2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Phillies have increased their winning percentage for three consecutive seasons, leading to back-to-back berths in the postseason. Despite their progress, Philadelphia still finished 14 games out of first place in 2022 and 2023. They missed the playoffs from 2012 to 2021 after a five-year postseason run that included a World Series win in 2008. Their only other championship came in 1980. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview breaks down their chances this fall.
Philly finished 12th in ERA (4.03) last year, with better results from their relievers (37 wins, 27 losses, 45 saves, and 590 strikeouts over 543.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA – 7th). They ranked eighth in runs (796), home runs (220), and RBIs (771). The Phillies swiped 141 bases on 167 attempts (84.4%).
In the offseason, Philadelphia didn’t sign any free agents or make trades. They lost RP Craig Kimbrel (BAL), 1B Rhys Hoskins (MIL), Josh Harrison (FA), and SP Michael Lorenzen (SP).
The starting lineup for the Phillies looks seven deep, with Bryce Harper transitioning to a full-time first baseman. Five of these players start the season on the wrong side of 30. The centerfield job looks wide open if OF Brandon Marsh slides over to left field.
In the poker world, Philadelphia may be starting the season with Ace/King suited, leaving them a step behind the best franchises in baseball that have a pair of aces. To compete for a playoff berth, Philly must get better innings out of their back three starters in 2024.
The bullpen’s success relies on RP Jose Alvarado staying healthy all season while seizing the closing role. Walks will be an issue for their remaining relieving options.
Starting Lineup
OF Kyle Schwarber
Since arriving in Philadelphia, Schwarber has had the best opportunity of his career, thanks to 886 of his 1,162 at-bats (76.2%) coming from the lead-off slot in the batting order. In addition, he has only sat out nine games over this span.
After a slow start in batting average (.185 with 27 runs, 11 home runs, and 23 RBIs over 173 at-bats) in 2022, Schwarber was a more valuable asset over the final four months (.233/73/35/71/8 over 404 at-bats). He had plenty of production (10 home runs and 30 RBIs over 197 at-bats) against left-handed pitching while falling short in batting average (.193).
For the second time over the last four years, Schwarber posted a batting average under .200, but he set a career-best in walks (126). His average hit rate (.2409) has been in an area to support 40+ home runs with 550 at-bats over the past five years. He posted new tops in at-bats (585), runs (108), home runs (47), and RBIs (107). Schwarber struggled again against left-handed pitching (.188) despite hitting 15 home runs over 207 at-bats. His best production came over his final two months (.226 with 46 runs, 20 home runs, and 39 RBIs over 195 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (29.9) matched 2022 while only being a few ticks off his career average (28.6). Schwarber set a new high in walks (17.5%). He almost repeated his flyball rate (49.9 – 51.1 in 2022 and 44.2 in his career).
His launch ankle (19.0 – 40th), exit velocity (92.4 – 19th), barrel rate (16.4 – 15th), and hard-hit rate (48.8 – 40th). Schwarber had a minimal change in his HR/FB rate (25.5 – 24.9 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook: Last year, his FPGscore (2.70) ranked 34th for hitters with a -3.11 coming from batting average and -1.40 in stolen bases. Schwarber has an ADP of 91 in the NFBC this draft season as the 51st batter selected. The regression in batting average for him came from easier outs via infield flies (15.8% - 12.0 in 2022 and 8.0 in 2021) and a much weaker contact batting average (.311 – .334 in 2022 and .390 in 2021). Based on his recent resume, I expect him to get on base 200+ times with an excellent chance at 40 home runs. His runs should have a floor of 90, but his RBI chances (396 – 326 in 2022) won’t be as high in 2024. Schwarber project as a value even with some regression. With some steals (10 in 2022) and a rebound batting average (.230), he will be more viable for more team structures...
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