Month: October 2023

Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

October 23, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week 8, so scoring should improve. The playoff drive starts Thursday. Let’s see what FullTime‘s Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 additions we can target to improve our postseason odds.

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

 

Josh Downs (WR) Indianapolis Cotls (25% FAAB) – Over his last three games, Downs has out-scored Michael Pittman. Downs has developed a solid rapport with Garnder Minshew. However, Downs has been producing all season. He’s played 75.8% of Indianapolis’s snaps and boats a 20.1% target rate. Downs is now WR25 for the season but is still widely available on waiver wires. Prepare to bid high. Also, keep Alec Pierce (1% FAAB) in mind as a low-price option.

Darrell Henderson (RB) Los Angeles Rams (20 % FAAB) – Welcome back to the league, Hendo! Days after being signed as a free agent, Henderson re-debuted with the Rams and led the backfield in Week 7. Henderson played 57% of LA’s snaps and out-touched Royce Freeman (7% FAAB) 19-12. Kyren Williams went to IR last week. Subsequently, Henderson has RB2/3 upside for the next three games. Or as long as he can hold onto the nominal starting gig.

Chuba Hubbard (RB) Carolina Panthers (15% FAAB) – Hubbard was one of my top adds last week. However, with Carolina on bye, he may have slipped through the cracks. Miles Sanders was already losing snaps to Hubbard. Also, Sanders missed Week 6 with a shoulder injury. Sanders has underperformed in 2023 and was already losing…

To see the rest of this week’s waiver wire and FAAB targets…

 

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 7 NFL Player Props

October 21, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 7 NFL Player Props Week 6 was another profitable week for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. Including the bonus Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown wager I recommended. We went 5-3 and profited 2.7 units after doubling down on Mostert’s rushing […]

Week 7 NFL Player Props

Week 6 was another profitable week for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. Including the bonus Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown wager I recommended. We went 5-3 and profited 2.7 units after doubling down on Mostert’s rushing yard prop. We are now 21-15 (+7.8 units) on the season.

Lamar Jackson surpassed his line by a single yard on Sunday morning and T.J. Hockenson just managed to haul in the six receptions he needed to hit his prop. That said, Mostert and Cooper Kupp shredded their lines as anticipated. Gardner Minshew threw for a ton of yards due to gamescript which I did not anticipate and D.J. Moore missed his line by a meager nine yards, in large part due to Justin Fields exiting the game with a dislocated thumb.

Unfortunately, the week could have been even better if Tony Pollard had done what he should have against a susceptible Los Angeles Chargers defense. Nonetheless, a profitable week is still money in the bank. Let’s continue to build up that bankroll heading into Week 7.

Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below.

Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 7 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.

Josh Allen UNDER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Surprisingly, Allen has hit his rushing yard prop line just once this entire season. I don’t anticipate that trend changing this week in a game in which the Bills are heavy favorites. On the season (outside of quarterback sneaks), the Bills have only called two designed quarterback runs for Allen. Allen has only rushed the ball more than four times once this entire season back in Week 1. Given the fact that Allen is dealing with a shoulder injury and that the Bills are expected to easily dispatch the New England Patriots, I anticipate the Bills doing everything in their power to prevent an aggravation to Allen’s current injury. He’s not going to run unless he has to. Take the under.

 

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

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Cooper Kupp - PreSeason Pro
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning […]

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning ticket on DraftKings three times over the first six games while also being viable in Week 5 (8/181/1). Adam Thielen came into last week with three consecutive visits to the daily winner circle (11/145/1, 7/76, and 11/107/1) in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, followed by another winnable day (11/115/1).

Unfortunately, he finished second through 10th in the final standings in the Week 6 Millionaire Maker. Cooper Kupp flashed in his first game back in action in Week 5 (8/112), upping that total last week (7/148/1). Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/124/1) was the best wideout in Week 6, helping a wise team builder win $1,000,000. Only four other wide receivers scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 6.

Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers by scoring average after six games:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.80)
  • Keenan Allen (24.99)
  • Stefon Diggs (23.33)
  • Justin Jefferson (22.02)
  • Adam Thielen (21.08)

Ja’Marr Chase (20.63), Puka Nacua (20.37), A.J. Brown (20.20), and D.J. Moore (20.03) are also averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points for the season. Cooper Kupp (23.80) also posted top-five wide receiver stats over his first two starts.

Also, before we get into the Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,700)

The daily games did their best to box DFS players from using Kupp in Week 7. His salary commands 38.00 fantasy points to pay off in DraftKings scoring, a game total he never reached in his epic 2021 season (37.30, 34.00, 37.60, and 34.70 fantasy points in his best four games). Last year, his best two outcomes in fantasy points came in Week 1 (31.80) and Week 2 (32.80). Each roster slot in a DFS lineup has a max value, so a 30+ fantasy game still creates an edge if the other outs a position don’t fix in the lineup box. Kupp was on the field for every play in Week 6.

The Steelers come into Week 7 sitting 29th in wide receiver defense (74/1024/6) with one disaster showing (23/290/2) against the Raiders and Davante Adams (13/172/2). Nico Collins (7/168/2) also posted an impact game. So far this season, Kupp has lined up in the slot for more than half of his plays, inviting a very winnable matchup vs. any Pittsburgh option in coverage. CB Patrick Peterson (16/238/4 on 28 targets per PFF) allowed big plays (14.9 yards per catch) and touchdowns (4). He can’t handle Kupp with one-on-one coverage.

Kupp has an elite floor, and the Rams’ offense has already produced many high-ranking games at running back and wide receiver over the first six weeks. The first stop in team building on Sunday starts with Kupp as 100 receiving yards and at least one score is a likely outcome. Ultimately, it’s about fitting the complementary piece behind him in a daily lineup.

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,000)

Diggs gained more than 100 yards receiving in four consecutive games (8/111, 6/120/3, 8/121/1, and 10/100) while also posting a top-tier showing in Week 1 (10/102/1). On the year, he averages 11 targets per game, putting him on pace to catch 138 passes for 1,757 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 targets (all career-highs). He played well in both games (7/92/1 and 7/104/1) vs. New England last season. In 2020, Diggs had one of the better weeks (9/145/3) of his career on the road against the Patriots. 

New England is 14th vs. wide receivers (74/864/10 on 110 targets) while playing A.J. Brown (7/79), DeVonta Smith (7/47/1), Tyreek Hill (5/40/1), Garrett Wilson (5/48), CeeDee Lamb (4/36/1), Chris Olave 92/12/1), and Davante Adams (2/29). CB J.C. Jackson blew coverage in Week 1 (3/99/1 on eight targets) vs. Tyreek Hill, something many other cornerbacks have done in 2023. He fell out of favor with the Chargers’ coaching staff, leading to the Patriots picking him up. Over his first two games with New England, he allowed three catches for 21 yards on 10 targets. His success with the Patriots earned him a massive payday from the Chargers.

The Bills need a statement game after losing to the Jaguars in London and lacking an offensive pulse vs. the low-ranking New York Giants defense. His resume with the Bills has been a high floor player (23 games over 55 starts with more than 20.00 fantasy points) while offering the occasional impact game (41.50, 30.20, 44.80, 30.80, and 36.00 fantasy points). Josh Allen looks for him often, but the percentages suggest Diggs…

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past […]

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past two weeks (Kyle Pitts – 7/87 and 4/43/1 ~ Jonnu Smith – 6/67 and 4/36/1), pushing them to the top 12 in tight end scoring for the season. Ten tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.00 fantasy points. 

Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after six weeks:

  • Travis Kelce (88.60)
  • Sam LaPorta (79.50)
  • T.J. Hockenson (77.40)
  • Mark Andrews (71.40)
  • Cole Kmet (67.10)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 7 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

 

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,500)

Despite missing one game and playing through some injuries, Kelce regains the top-scoring seat at tight end heading into Week 7. He has a floor of nine targets on four starts while gaining momentum over his last two matchups (10/67/1 and 9/124). The Chiefs only had him on the field for 59% and 69% of their plays over this span (66.4% for the season – 79.8% in 2022). Last year, Kelce had one impact game (6/115/3) against the Chargers on the road (5/51 at home), with the same theme in 2021 (10/191/2 @ LAC – 7/104 in KC). 

Los Angeles ranks 10th in tight end defense (19/187/1 on 29 targets) while facing four opponents with low-ranking options (MIA – 3/44, TEN – 4/35, LV – 1/11, and DAL – 1/15). The Chargers did have issues covering T.J. Hockenson (8/78) and the Vikings’ tight ends (10/82/1 on 13 targets) in Week 3. 

Kelce hasn’t delivered a game that was three times his current salary at DraftKings in 2023 (24.20, 33.50, and 35.50 last season). The latter two outcomes are needed to fill his salary bucket in Week 7. His path isn’t far off from an 8/100/2 game, so keep an open mind about playing him in the DFS market. 

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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