2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR Depth
Since drafting early wide receivers has become the most popular draft strategy in 2023, securing WR depth is integral. Knowing how to identify and target mid-round values is crucial. With my 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: WR Depth, I break down how to build the deepest and best receiving corps in your league.
In PPR leagues, it is possible to draft four wide receivers that outscore many RB2s over the first four or five rounds of drafts. The data below shows the strength of the wide receiver pool at WR3 and WR4 over the past four seasons.
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Wide Receiver 25 to 36 Point totals (2019 – 2022)
Targeting WR3s
Last year, the 25th through 36th wide receivers averaged 181.99 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues, or 11.37 fantasy points per week, or 68 catches for 800 yards and four touchdowns. The top four wide receivers in this group averaged 187.33 fantasy points.
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Fantasy Point Totals WR3 Observations
The quality of the WR3 in 2022 was well below the previous three seasons (189.86, 194.37, and 181.99 fantasy points).
Wide receivers are inconsistent from week to week. Many times touchdowns will determine their success. If a drafter builds his team with too many weak wide receivers, he will have difficulty getting his lineup right on Sunday. As I maneuver through the wide receiver pool, it is easy to see that they consistently outscore the running back position at the backend.
As I mentioned earlier, if a fantasy manager could draft three top wide receivers inside of the first four rounds, his team structure may lead to a five or six-point edge at the WR3 position by hitting on the right group of wide receivers. Additionally, by having three reliable wide receivers, a fantasy team may be slightly stronger during bye weeks. Also, it will have a chance to battle some short-term injuries.
On the other hand, a team selecting a quarterback and tight end over the top five rounds will be under pressure to get their 2nd running backs and backend wide receivers right on draft day.
Wide Receiver 25 to 36 Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
WR4 or Flex Player
The 37th through 48th wide receivers averaged 160.65 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 59 catches, 724 yards, and four touchdowns. On average, the 4th tier of wide receivers (10.04) outscored the 3rd group of running backs (9.80 fantasy points in 2022). Last year, 36 wide receivers averaged more than 10 fantasy points per week compared to 38 in 2021 and 32 in 2020.
My goal at the flex position has to be much higher than 10.5 fantasy points. Unfortunately, many failures at the backend of the wide receiver pool tend to come from injuries.
Fantasy Point Totals WR4 Observations
If I add up the average score from each starting roster position, the mid-range of a fantasy team came to 146.04 fantasy points per week based on 2022 results. Each fantasy manager’s goal should be to beat the average score at each position. That means they need a mid to upper-tier player at each spot in their starting lineup.
The wide receiver position runs deeper than the running back inventory. But wideouts are more challenging to manage at the lower tiers. As a result, many drafters use two different philosophies.
The first goal is to draft one foundation running back and build your team with strength in their receiving corps. Plus a solid tight end also helps. The next step is loading up on running back depth. If one or more backup running backs gain a full-time job, this draft style will contend for a title with a healthy season.
The second team structure comes from a running back strong roster in team building while hopefully hitting on their backend wide receivers.
I’ll use a baseball comparison as it is easier to understand for fantasy managers that play multiple sports. A backup running back is like a closer in waiting. If a player gets full-time carries, they can become a top player and sometimes an elite running back. Without a starting opportunity, a backup running back tends to have minimal value if needed to cover an injury or bye week.
Wide receivers are more like starting pitchers. It’s either they have talent or they don’t. A couple of wide receivers will break through each year, but what are the chances that the draft breaks right to secure the right ones? If a drafter went running back strong, do they need to hit one or two wide receivers to have a successful season? They might even need three wide receivers to develop a competitive roster.
In the high-end leagues, your opponents will also know the player pool. That makes it challenging to get out if you wait too long at the wide receiver position.
The second part is that a backup wide receiver can’t match an elite wide receiver just because he has an opportunity. If Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase gets hurt, their replacement won’t deliver his production. Their targets will be spread out between the other good players within that offense.
A mediocre running back can get a job in a high-powered offense and produce by the sheer volume of touches. That is why many top fantasy owners will cheat on the RB2 position. They avoid the injury risk by selecting one running back early and try to gain an edge at four or five other roster positions.
Drafting a Balanced Roster
The best team structure for a fantasy manager that pushes the quarterback position back would be to draft a balanced roster after five rounds (two RBs, two WRs, and one TE). This path allows a drafter to take advantage of the positions that slide in the draft. Each league will be different, so there isn’t a perfect way to build your team.
Understanding the player pool and draft flow is critical in building a winning roster. The kicker is that players will get hurt, and many will underperform expectations.
Some drafters view some players as having injury risks. However, football is so much different than baseball. I can’t ignore talent, even if I think a player may break down. Brian Westbrook comes to mind when I think of this. I passed on him many times as I thought he was an injury risk, but I also knew he had talent.
Westbrook would play at a high level if he were on the field. I’m all about avoiding injuries. But I know the crystal ball that works inside my head doesn’t translate into real football. If a player has difference-maker talent and is still in the prime of his career, I have to take the edge when I can and protect my investment.
I would approach the draft this way. It is vital to evaluate my opponents when sitting at the draft table. If I’m in a league with less knowledgeable drafters, there will be buying opportunities in all positions later in drafts.
Every fantasy manager will likely know the player pool in the high-stakes market. They will also respect the wide receiver position. Knowing my opponents, I can better understand my opportunities later in the draft.
In other words, I may want to push up the wide receiver position in a live draft on the opening-day weekend of the NFL season. In early drafts, I can gain an edge by selecting a quarterback or tight end earlier. As each week passes, drafting information will circulate, and the player pool will tighten up.
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