2023 Washington Commanders Outlook

July 28, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Washington Commanders Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Washington Commanders Outlook

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Washington Commanders Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Sam Howell

Howell threw 92 touchdowns over three seasons at North Carolina while gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. In 2021, he improved dramatically in the run game (183/828/11 – 4.5 yards per rush). Howell finished his college career with 10,283 passing yards, but his passing touchdowns declined each season (38, 30, and 24) while only tossing 23 interceptions.

Despite success running the ball in his final year in college, Howell didn’t win with his speed. He showed the ability to take a hit and stay upright with the vision to make extra yards. This style of play won’t translate well in the NFL, meaning that Howell will need to pick his spots better in the run game and know when to slide.

On the positive, he will be a dual threat to score near the goal line. The Tarheels lined him out of the shotgun almost exclusively. Howell has the arm to fire deep downfield on time. He was willing to use his tight ends. Also, some speedy wideouts helped his success in big plays. His next step is removing some wasted motion in his release (ball taps) on some plays. Howell handles himself well in the pocket, thanks to his legs.

In his rookie season, The Commanders only had Howell on the field for one game (204 combined yards with two touchdowns and one interception). Four of his 11 completions gained 20 yards or more.

Fantasy Outlook: The keys to Washington’s offense are in the hands of Howell. First, he has a slickness to his movements with the look of a competitive passer in the NFL. Secondly, the Commanders have three viable options at wide receiver, and Dyami Brown had his best seasons (51/1,034/12 and 55/1,099/8) at college with Howell throwing him the ball. He projects as a backend QB2 in the fantasy market. Finally, I’m intrigued, but Washington will taper his passing chances in his rookie season. With a 75/300/2 line in the run game, Howell should gain more than 4,000 combined yards with only a league-average ceiling in touchdowns.

Other Options: Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm, Tim DeMorat

— Running Backs —

The running back position had a significant part of the Commanders’ offense in 2022. They set three-year highs in rushing attempts (483), and rushing yards (1,926), leading to 2,552 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 89 catches (23.79 FPPG in PPR formats) on 572 touches. The offensive philosophy change led to a pullback in the passing chances (89/626/3).

Brian Robinson

Robinson worked his way into a high-volume role in his fifth season at Alabama. He finished with 306 touches, leading to 1,639 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and 35 catches. Over his first four years, Robinson gained a combined 1,511 yards with 15 touchdowns and 17 catches. In 2021, he didn’t score a touchdown over his final five games while struggling in three matchups (16/71, 16/55, and 22/68) in the run game.

There is something to be said for a running back gaining experience in touches. Robinson is a power back with the ability to make yards after contact. He runs with patience while having the drive to cut fast into daylight at the line of scrimmage. When asked to pass block, Robinson understands his role and stays in tune with his quarterback to become a late passing option out of the backfield. Also, his improved opportunity in 2021 should only make him better in the NFL.

An unfortunate gunshot injury led Robinson missing on the first four games with Washington. By his second game, the Commanders gave him a bulk of carries, leading to a productive final 11 weeks (196/775/2 with nine catches for 60 yards and one score). He gained more than 100 yards in three consecutive starts from Week 12 to Week 14. His season ended with a knee injury in Week 18.

Fantasy Outlook: Washington will rotate two running backs in 2023. Robinson had nine catches for 60 yards and one score last year, with higher usage in the passing game (35/296/2) in his final year at Alabama. The Commander should give him between 17 to 20 touches this year, pointing to 1,200 combined yards, six to eight touchdowns, and about 20 catches. As the 36th running back drafted, Robinson is on a path to post an RB2 season in PPR formats.

Antonio Gibson

In his sophomore year with the Commanders, Gibson gained 1,331 combined yards with 10 scores and 42 catches on 300 touches over 16 games. However, he missed Week 17 with Covid-19. On the downside, Gibson gained only 4.0 yards per carry. Also, only four of his 258 rushes gained 20 yards or more. Washington gave him a high-volume opportunity (23.4 touches per game) in seven of his final eight starts, leading to 687 yards with five touchdowns and 23 catches. His only two games with over 100 yards rushing came in Week 12 (29/111 with seven catches for 35 yards) and Week 18 (21/146/1 with one catch for five yards).

Gibson failed to take advantage of the four games (56/179/2 – 3.2 yards per rush with 16 catches for 134 yards) missed by Brian Robinson to start 2022, leading to him working as Washington’s RB2 over his final 11 matchups (missed Week 17 and 18 with knee and foot issues). He finished the year with 899 combined yards with five touchdowns and 46 catches (28th in running back scoring in PPR leagues). Also, Gibson had foot surgery after the season.

Fantasy Outlook: With J.D. McKissic no longer on the roster…

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2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook

July 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Dallas Cowboys Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Dak Prescott

In 2019 and 2021, Prescott attempted 596 passes in both seasons over 16 games. He improved by 22 completions in 2021 but regressed by 453 passing yards. Prescott finished with the best completion rate (68.8) of his career with a new high in passing touchdowns (37). He ended the year with a step back in running value (48/146/1) after being much more productive in this area over his first 64 games (241/1,221/21). When at his best, Prescott had a floor of three touchdowns in nine starts (416/3, 244/3, 223/4, 308/3, 455/3, 301/3, 351/4, 246/3, and 295/5). He delivered 1,864 passing yards and eight touchdowns in his other seven matchups.

After an off game in Week 1 (134/0 with one interception) last season, Prescott missed five starts with a broken right thumb. His year ended with the most interceptions (15) of his career over 12 matchups, with further regression in his yards per pass attempt (7.3). Prescott only had a slight fall off in his completion rate (66.2 – 68.6 over his previous 21 contests) while repeating his value in the run game (45/182/1). Over his final 13 games (including the postseason), he had a completion rate of 70% or higher in eight matchups, but Prescott only passed for more than 300 yards in two starts (347/3 and 305/4). He averaged 33.1 passes over his 14 games, compared to 37.3 in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook: Other than an excellent growth season by CeeDee Lamb (107/1,359/9), the Cowboys’ receiving corps failed to match preseason expectations. Michael Gallup (39/424/4) was a shell of his previous self, and rookie Jalen Tolbert (2/12) didn’t develop into a viable receiving option. Adding Brandin Cooks gives Prescott a proven veteran wideout, but he also lost his top tight end threat (Dalton Schultz). My early thought is that Dallas should average close to 250 passing yards per game, with Prescott finishing with a floor of 30 combined touchdowns (on pace for 34 in 2021). He is the 12th ranked quarterback in early June in the high-stake market.

Cooper Rush

Over his first four seasons with Dallas, Rush was only on the field for eight games, leading to him completing 31 of his 50 passes for 424 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He kept the Cowboys in the playoff hunt by winning four of his five starts when Dak Prescott was out with his thumb injury.

Despite his winning success, Rush was only a game manager over his first four contests (775/4 with no interceptions). When facing the Eagles, he was overmatched in Week 6 (18-for-38 for 181 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions).

Fantasy Outlook: Rush remains the top backup quarterback for Dallas, but he will see minimal time again in 2023.

Other Options: Will Grier

— Running Backs —

The combination of Ezekiel Elliott (968 combined yards) and Tony Pollard (1,378 combined yards) gave Dallas plenty of production in overall yards (2,346) while adding 24 combined touchdowns. Their backs set three-year highs in rushing attempts (477), rushing yards (2,110), and touchdowns (26), but they were less active in the passing game (62/526/3 on 85 targets). The Cowboys running backs averaged 28.33 FPPG in PPR formats.

Tony Pollard

Dallas gave Pollard 169 touches in 2021, but he did leave some stats on the table by missing two games with a December left foot injury (plantar fascia). Over his final three games (including the postseason), he struggled to run the ball (15/57) with seven catches for 77 yards. Pollard broke loose in Week 2 (140 combined yards with one score and three catches) while gaining over 100 combined yards in one other matchup (14/75 and four catches for 28 yards). From the Cowboys’ second game to Week 15 (12 contests), he averaged 12.2 touches, leading to 905 yards with two touchdowns and 30 catches or 11.04 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Pollard was frustrating to manage over the first five games last season due to his up-and-down usage by the Cowboys. He had empty production in Week 1 (22 combined yards and two catches) and Week 4 (eight combined yards and one catch) while flashing his explosiveness over his other three contests (289 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 34 touches). When given a chance to start in two games midseason, Pollard played at a high level (14/131/3 and 22/115/1) with four combined catches and 29 yards. Dallas gave him an uptick in chances over the next six weeks (83/367/3 with 24 catches for 237 yards and three scores), but ankle and leg injuries led to a missed game and a step back in play over his final three contests (28/118 with five catches for 23 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: The excitement for Pollard is brewing in the early fantasy draft season based on his ranking (10th). He finished last season as the ninth-highest-scoring running back (248.80) in PPR formats despite averaging 14.5 touches. Dallas will rotate in a second running back, but Pollard should see his opportunity improve by at least 15%. I’ll set his early bar at 225 rushes for 1,100 yards with a dozen scores and 50 catches for 450 more yards. His only negative is back-to-back late-season injuries, with the latter requiring surgery to repair a broken left leg last January.

Deuce Vaughn

Over three seasons at Kansas State, Vaughn gained 4,371 combined yards with 47 touchdowns and 116 catches over 37 games. He had a high-volume opportunity in 2021 (284 touches) and 2022 (335 touches), showcasing his durability…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE COWBOYS IN 2023?

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Watch: The Fantasy Football World Championships

July 25, 2023 Adam Krautwurst

Do you have what it takes to beat the best of the best? Learn more about the Fantasy Football World Championships, presented by FullTime Fantasy Sports! […]

2023 Los Angeles Chargers Outlook

July 25, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Los Angeles Chargers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Los Angeles Chargers Outlook

— Quarterback —

Justin Herbert

In 2021, Herbert finished with an impressive 5,316 combined yards with 41 touchdowns. His floor was high in scoring in his first two years in the run game (55/234/5 and 63/302/3). Herbert averaged 39.5 pass attempts while gaining over 300 yards in nine matchups (337/1, 338/1, 398/4, 356/2, 382/3, 303/2, 317/3, 336/1, and 383/3). He ranked second in fantasy scoring (447.00) in four-point passing touchdown leagues with four impact games (33.65, 46.80, 35.20, 39.10, and 32.25 fantasy points).

Last season, Herbert threw the ball well over his first two starts (279/3 and 334/3), but a hit late in Week 2 led to a rib injury that appeared to effort his play over the next few weeks. His running value (54/147) sharply declined from his two previous seasons, especially in scoring (no rushing touchdowns). On the positive side, Herbert set a career-high in completions (477), pass attempts (699), and completion rate (68.2). He threw two touchdowns or fewer in 15 of his final 16 starts, with only one game (Week 12 – 312/3). Herbert passed for more than 300 yards five times on the year.

Fantasy Outlook: Despite a down season, Herbert played through an injury, and his top two wideouts missed about 14 games (including two quick exits). He finished the season ranked eighth in fantasy points (343.25) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The Chargers upgraded his receiving depth in this year’s draft, and his passing window should be much longer in 2023. Herbert now has six live receiving options to work with, inviting a return to the greatness he showed in 2022. Trending toward 5,500 combined yards with a push over 40 touchdowns. But Los Angeles must stay healthy on the offensive side of the ball.

Max Duggan

Duggan had a quiet start to his college career over 32 games at TCU (7,353 combined yards with 60 touchdowns and 20 interceptions). He gained only 7.3 yards per pass attempt, with weakness in his completion rate (58.9). His floor was helped by his ability to move the ball on the ground (351/1,433/19).

Last year, Duggan helped his team play for a National Championship by starting the season with 12 consecutive wins. His inspired play vs. Michigan (282 combined yards and four scores) led to TCU facing Georgia on January 9th, where he was overmatched by the Bulldogs’ defense. On the year, Duggan gained 4,101 yards with 41 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Defenses did catch up to him late in the year in pass coverage (212 yards per game with eight passing touchdowns and six interceptions over seven starts).

Fantasy Outlook: Duggan must improve his accuracy and arm strength to earn a starting job in the NFL. He’ll compete for the backup quarterback job for the Chargers this season.

Other Options: Easton Stick

— Running Backs —

The Chargers’ running backs led the league in catches (140) and targets (179), but they finished with a minimal game in receiving yards (911). A downgrade in LA’s offensive line was highlighted by their backs yards per catch (6.5). They ended the year with a drop off in rushing yards (1,373) for the second consecutive season and weakness in yards per rush (3.9) despite only nine fewer rushing attempts (349). The Chargers’ running backs combined for 2,284 yards with 22 touchdowns and 140 catches (29.44 FPPG).

Austin Ekeler

In 2021, Ekeler gained 1,558 combined yards with 20 touchdowns and 70 catches. The Chargers had him on the field for only 61.1% of their plays. He produced better stats at home (955 combined yards with 14 scores and 41 catches – 24.50 FPPG in PPR leagues). Ekeler posted two impact games (33.90 and 41.50 fantasy points) while having a floor of 20.00 fantasy points in nine matchups. He finished second in fantasy scoring (346.80) with one missed game with Covid-19.

Los Angeles gave him almost the same opportunity in the run game (204/915/13), with nearly the identical role in snaps (61.8%). Ekeler set a new top in catches (107) and targets (127), but he gained only 6.7 yards per catch, well below his 2021 (9.2) and his career average (9.7).

Over the past two seasons. Ekeler has 25 rushing and 13 receiving touchdowns. He gained more than 100 rushing yards in two matchups (16/173/1 and 10/122/2) and five other outcomes with 100 combined yards or more.

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past four seasons, Ekeler has been an exceptional player for the Chargers. He works hard and grinds out yards when there is minimal space. Unfortunately, his window for a payday is closing, and Ekeler has one year left on his contract. Los Angeles bumped up some incentives in 2023, but he’ll never get paid what he is worth or should have earned over the past two seasons (3,195 combined yards with 38 touchdowns and 177 catches). Ekeler is the second running back drafted this year after ranking 2nd and 1st in fantasy points in 2021 and 2022. His pass-catching sets a high floor while his growth in scoring leads to more impactful days (Ekeler scored over 30.00 fantasy points four times last season – 34.90, 35.90, 36.70, and 32.10), three of which came over the first seven games.

Joshua Kelley

Kelley had two productive seasons at UCLA (225/1243/12 and 229/1060/12), with his best value coming in the passing game (27/193) in 2018. His path in college started at the University of California at Davis.

His career at UCLA began as a walk-on player with minimal value in his first two games (6/20 and 5/7). Kelley rushed for over 100 yards over his next four contests while ending the year with a touchdown in each of his final eight games, highlighted by a monster showing vs. rival USC (40/289/2). In 2019, he had four games with over 100 yards rushing (27/127/1, 18/176/1, 34/164/4, and 23/126/2), but Kelley also had multiple games (6) with fewer than 80 yards on the ground.

Kelley looks good inside the five-yard line and in short-yardage situations where he is willing to drop and drive to create yards in tight quarters. He runs with power with the ability to break tackles against trash when seeing minimal daylight. Kelley projects as a north/south runner, but I see more dimensions to his game. He offers some head and shoulder fakes when breaking into space while not losing all of his momentum. His hands grade well, and I expect him to make plays in the passing game.

In his rookie season, Kelley gained 502 combined yards with two touchdowns and 23 catches. His best opportunity came over the first two weeks (173 combined yards with one score and two catches). On the year, he gained only 3.2 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per catch.

Despite an empty 2021 (33/102/0 with five catches for 38 yards over 10 games), Kelley had the second-most running back snaps (286) for Los Angeles last season. He held his own in the run game (69/297/2) while picking up 14 catches for 101 yards. Kelley missed five weeks midseason with a knee injury.

Fantasy Outlook: Kelley remains the favorite to win

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CHARGERS IN 2023?

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2023 New York Giants Outlook

July 23, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 New York Giants Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 New York Giants Outlook

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 New York Giants Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Daniel Jones

Over his first three seasons with the Giants, Jones posted a 12-25 record with 45 passing touchdowns and 49 turnovers (29 interceptions and 36 fumbles – 20 lost). He added value to their run game (172/1,000/5 – 5.8 yards per rush), but Jones gained only 6.6 yards per pass attempt in his career. Five of his six 300-yard passing games came in his rookie season.

In 2021, he missed the final six matchups with a neck injury that didn’t require surgery. His only game of value came in Week 2 (429/2) while failing to deliver over two scores in any contest.

Jones set a career-best with his completion rate (67.2) last season, giving him three consecutive years of improvement. The change in coaching staff allowed him to be much more active in the run game (120/708/7), but he averaged only 29.5 passes over his 16 starts. Over his last 41 games, Jones threw only 36 passing touchdowns. His best growth area in 2022 was turnovers (five interceptions and three lost fumbles). He passed for more than 300 yards three times (341/1, 334/1, and 301/2) while finishing with 200 or fewer passing yards in 12 of his 18 matchups (including the postseason).

Fantasy Outlook: Despite missing one game, Jones finished 12th in quarterback scoring (329/05) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. He scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four games (30.80, 30.05, 37.95, and 30.85), two of which came from big days on the ground (11/107/1 and 11/91/2). This draft season, Jones is the 15th quarterback off the board. New York gave him a big-play wideout in this year’s draft, suggesting a new top in his yards per pass attempt (6.8 or below in all four seasons in the NFL). With 525 pass attempts, Jones has a chance at 4,300 combined yards with about 27 touchdowns.

Other Options: Tyrod Taylor, DeVito

— Running Backs —

The running back production for the Giants had a significant jump last year. They had 46 more rushing attempts than in 2021 but gained 408 rushing yards while setting three-year tops in yards per rush (4.4) and rushing touchdowns (13). On the downside, New York gave their backs fewer chances in the passing game (84/528/0), with continued weakness in their yards per catch (6.3). They finished with 2,228 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 84 catches (22.64 FPPG in PPR formats).

Saquon Barkley

In his rookie season, Barkley ranked second in running back scoring (385.80 in PPR leagues – 2,028 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 91 catches). He gained 1,441 combined yards the following year with eight touchdowns and 52 catches over 13 games (high-ankle sprain). His success over his first 29 games came to 21.65 fantasy points per game.

A torn ACL in his right knee in 2020 led to only two games of action (94 yards and six catches on 25 touches).

In 2021, Barkley struggled over his first two games (23/83 – 3.6 yards per catch and three catches for 13 yards) before looking sharp over the next two weeks (220 combined with three touchdowns and 11 catches). Unfortunately, a left ankle injury in Week 5 led to him missing most of his next five games. When Barkley returned to the lineup, the Giants’ offense lacked a pulse, leading to a dull finish to the season (521 combined yards with one score and 27 catches). He gained only 3.7 yards per rush and 4.9 yards per catch over this span.

The change in coaching staff in 2022 led to Barkley getting 352 touches, leading to career-highs in carries (295), rushing yards (1,312), and rushing touchdowns (13). He had nine plays of 20 yards or more, with three reaching the 40-yard mark. New York struggled to get him in space in the passing game (5.9 yards per catch). Barkley rushed for more than 100 yards in four games (18/164/1, 31/146, 24/110, and 35/152/1) but none after Week 10.

Fantasy Outlook: He finished fifth in running back scoring (284.50) in PPR leagues while delivering only one impact game (33.40 fantasy points in Week 1). Barkley scored between 17.00 and 27.50 fantasy points in 10 of his 18 starts. His lowest three outputs (6.80, 7.80, and 10.20 fantasy points) came over his final six matchups. In mid-June, Barkley is the fifth running back drafted with an early second-round ADP. The Giants gave him a franchise tag this spring, possibly inviting a holdout this summer and into the season. With the Giants trending up, I believe Barkley will get signed before the start of the season. He has an upside of 1,800 combined yards with double-digit scores and 70 catches.

Eric Gray

Over the past three seasons at Oklahoma, Gray had caught 86 of his 106 targets for 712 yards and four touchdowns. His best opportunity in the run game came in 2022 (213/1,366/11), where he set a four-year high in yards per rush (6.4). Gray gained 3,816 combined yards with 26 scores and 99 catches in his 47 games in college.

Fantasy Outlook: Gray gives New York an upside RB2 for…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE GIANTS IN 2023?

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2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook

July 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook

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Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Patrick Mahomes

After dominating the fantasy world in his first season as a starter for Kansas City in 2018 (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns), Mahomes ranked 7th (334.55 – two missed games), 4th (429.80 – 15 starts), 4th (427.25), and 1st (482.30) in fantasy scoring in four-point scoring formats. He has a 64-16 career record in the regular season, with five post-season trips (11-3 – two Super Bowl wins and a loss).

In 2021, Mahomes set career-highs in completions (436), pass attempts (658), rushing attempts (66), and rushing yards (381). His season started with success over four games (1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns). Other than Week 10 (406/5), he lost his luster from Week 5 to Week 14 (269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts). However, Mahomes did regain his stride throwing the ball in the playoffs (404/5, 378/3, and 275/3).

His high floor continued last season, leading to almost identical value in completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set a career-high in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with a high floor in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark.

Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).

Fantasy Outlook: Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board in 2023 after his impactful year. His success relies on Travis Kelce being a beast and Kansas City developing their young wideouts. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice have plenty of talent while lacking proven resumes in the NFL. Mahomes will find a way to average 300 combined yards with a floor of 35 touchdowns.

Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Chris Oladokun

— Running Backs —

The Chiefs’ running backs had the same number of targets (112) over the past three seasons. Their stats fell in a tight range in 2021 (90/824/3) and 2022 (89/826/12), except for touchdowns. Kansas City ran the ball better last year (351/1,617/14 – 4.6 yards per rush). Their running backs combined for 2,443 yards with 26 touches and 89 catches (28.78 FPPG).

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco flew up draft boards last August after flashing his speed (4.37 40-yard dash) in training camp. He has an aggressive running style, but his lack of patience and vision sometimes leads to dead ends. His first instinct is to run outside while his pass protection skills need work. Pacheco will have low value in the passing game early in his career.

Kansas City added him with the 30th selection in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over four seasons at Rutgers, he rushed for 2,442 yards on 563 carries with 18 touchdowns. He caught 47 of his 68 targets for 249 yards and one score. Pacheco gained only 4.3 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per catch.

Over the first half of his rookie season, the Chiefs gave him a minimal opportunity, leading to 210 combined yards with one touchdown and 13 catches on 47 touches. His best outcome came in Week 1 (12/62/1). Kansas City featured him on early downs (163/830/5) over their final 12 matchups with only 16 catches for 182 yards. He gained 5.1 yards per rush while averaging 12.27 fantasy points in PPR formats down the stretch. Pacheco failed to score more than 16.50 fantasy points in any game.

Fantasy Outlook: Kansas City will give him 15 touches a game this year, but he’ll have short value in the passing game in most weeks. I expect about 1,300 yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and about 30 catches. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Pacheco is the 22nd running back selected.

Jerick McKinnon

After gaining momentum in 2017 with the Vikings (991 combined yards with five touchdowns and 51 catches), injuries cost McKinnon all of the following two seasons with the 49ers. San Francisco gave him 47 touches over their first four games in 2020, leading to 295 combined yards with four touchdowns and 13 catches. They phased him out of the running back rotation in most weeks over their final 12 games (277 combined yards with two touchdowns and 20 catches).

The Chiefs only gave McKinnon 25 touches in 2021, leading to…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CHIEFS IN 2023?

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2023 Denver Broncos Outlook

July 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Denver Broncos Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Denver Broncos Outlook

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Denver Broncos Outlook.

— Offense —

Even with another losing season, the Broncos played well enough on defense to run the ball more than 26 times a game. They threw 56.3% of the time while ranking 20th in combined yards (5,942). Sean Payton has a history of having one of the best offenses in the league, giving Denver a chance to be much improved in all areas in 2023.

— Quarterback —

Russell Wilson

Over 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson went 104-53-1 with eight trips to the postseason (9-7 with a Super Bowl win and loss). His completion rate (65.0) and yards per passing attempt (7.8) graded well, but he has never played behind a stellar offensive line (361 sacks from 2013 to 2020, with a low of 41 sacks in 2016).

From 2017 and 2020, Wilson delivered 150 passing touchdowns (eight on the ground) with 36 interceptions. In 2021, he missed games (3) for the first time in his career due to a broken right middle finger. Wilson finished with a career-low in rushing production (43/183/2) while being on pace to pass for 3,780 yards and 30 scores.

Wilson finished his first season in Denver with a career-low in his completion rate (60.5) and passing touchdowns (16). Opposing defenses sacked him 55 times, earning him the league high for the season time in four years. He only passed for more than 300 yards in Week 1 (340/1). In 12 of his 15 starts, Wilson delivered one passing touchdown or fewer, ranking 15th in fantasy points (274.00) in four-point passing touchdown leagues.

Fantasy Outlook: The new coaching staff for the Broncos is going to air out the ball in 2023. From 2006 to 2020, Drew Brees averaged 38.3 passes per game, with a low 32.5 in 2020 at age 41. Their offense featured the running back position in the passing game, pointing much more completion by Wilson. I expect a career-best in completions and passing yards, leading to a minimum of 4,700 combined yards and 30 touchdowns. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Wilson is the 17th-ranked quarterback. His price point has removed his risk, painting a high-reward QB2 in fantasy leagues.

Other Options: Jarrett Stidham, Jarrett Guarantano, Ben DiNucci

— Running Backs —

The switch to Russell Wilson and a dismal pass-blocking offensive line led to the Broncos setting three-year highs in catches (96), receiving yards (751), targets (132), and yards per catch (7.8). Their running backs combined for 2,402 yards with 10 touchdowns and 96 catches (23.32 FPPG in PPR formats).

Javonte Williams

Coming into the NFL, Williams has a chain-mover feel while relying on his power and fight to finish off carries. He runs with a smooth rhythm while waiting for a hole to open. Once Williams sees daylight, his acceleration pushes into the second level of the defense. He won’t hit on many long touchdowns, but his short-area quickness plays well. Williams shows plenty of grit, and his style should wear defenses down. Despite a limited role as a receiver, he projects well in the passing game while having the smarts to pick up an NFL offense on all downs.

The Tarheels used Williams in a split role over the last two seasons, leading to 2,554 combined yards with 28 touchdowns and 42 catches. He played at the highest level in 2020 (1,445 combined yards with 22 touchdowns and 25 catches).

I sense some of Frank Gore’s traits in his game. Williams has a winning feel, and I expect him to do the dirty work in the run game. He’ll bring punch after punch on his runs, leading to productive showings on most days.

In his first season with Denver, Williams gained 1,219 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 43 catches. He finished 17th in running back scoring (206.30) in PPR leagues. His best value came from Week 12 to Week 14 (372 combined yards with four touchdowns and 10 catches). Williams gained more than 100 yards in one other matchup (17/111). On the downside, he scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight games (5.50, 8.40, 8.90, 9.80, 6.80, 6.80, 6.80, 6.90, 4.20, and 8.40).

Williams left Week 4 last season after 23 snaps due to torn ACL in his right knee. He gained 280 yards with 16 catches on 63 touches over his four starts.

Fantasy Outlook: With 11 months to recover, Williams should be ready for Week 1, but that news will trickle in over the summer. In May, he ranked as the 27th running back drafted in the high-stakes market, with one drafter willing to take him late in the second round. Players coming off significant injuries tend to disappoint, highlighted by JK Dobbins year in 2022. Williams should be the Broncos’ top running back choice for touchdowns and catches, making him a value based on his current price point. I’ll set his bar at 1,400 combined yards (58% of their 2022 RB stats) with double-digit scores and 50+ catches, as long as there isn’t any negative news about his health over the summer.

Samaje Perine

After kicking around the NFL for three seasons with minimal chances, Perine played well off the bench for Cincinnati over the past three seasons. He gained 1,409 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and 76 catches on 289 touches. Last year, the Bengals gave him a career-high 133 touches, leading to 681 yards with six touchdowns and 38 catches (RB36).

He proved more than worthy over three-game stretch midseason with starting snaps (30.20, 19.30, and 21.50 fantasy points in PPR formats). With Joe Mixon on the field, Perine only had two other games with more than 10 touches.

Fantasy Outlook: Perine’s growth and value in pass-catching should carve out…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BRONCOS IN 2023?

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2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook

July 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Jimmy Garoppolo

In 2021, Garoppolo finished the season with strength in his completion rate (68.3) and yards per pass attempt (8.6). Over his final nine games (including the postseason), Garoppolo passed for 2,233 yards (248 per game) with only 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In the playoffs, Garoppolo gained 540 yards in three matchups with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion rate (58.1) was a sign that his shoulder wasn’t healthy, leading to surgery in March of 2022. When at his best, he passed for over 300 yards in five contests while failing to deliver more than two scores in any game.

A season-ending injury to Trey Lance in the second game of last season gave Garoppolo the starting quarterback job for the 49ers. From Week 3 to Week 12, he passed for 2,227 yards over nine games with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. His best output came in three contests (307/2, 305/2, and 225/4) while adding 19 rushes for 28 yards and one score over this span. Unfortunately, Garoppolo saw his season end in Week 13 due to a broken left foot. He has been a winning quarterback (40-17) for the Patriots and 49ers in the regular season, with success in the postseason (4-2).

Las Vegas signed Garoppolo in March for three seasons ($72.75 million) before having surgery on his left foot. If his healing process doesn’t progress as planned, the Raiders could release him without financial responsibility.

Fantasy Outlook: During his time in the NFL, Garoppolo played for two winning franchises. However, he has only once (2019) kept the job for an entire season. He has plenty of passing weapons with a top chain moving back, but Garoppolo will have a smaller window to throw the ball in 2023. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, he ranks as a waiver-wire QB3. At best, a game manager with a chance at 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns if Garoppolo can stay upright for 17 games.

Aidan O’Connell

Over 33 games at Purdue, O’Connell completed two-thirds of his passes for 9,218 yards with 65 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. His best year came in 2021 (3,711/28). He brings no value to the run game besides the occasional score and short runs for first downs.

Fantasy Outlook: O’Connell will compete for the backup quarterback job for the Raiders in 2023. Brian Hoyer has experience in this system, making the logical choice to get the first chance to start if Jimmy Garoppolo has an injury.

Other Options: Brian Hoyer, Chase Garbers

— Running Backs —

The outlier in the running back stats over the past three seasons for the Raiders has to be the yards per rush (4.8) achieved in 2022. Over the previous two years, Las Vegas gained 4.11 and 4.07 yards per rush by their running backs. Their backs finished with 2,551 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 92 catches, which works to 25.71 FPPG. The Raiders threw less to the running back position in 2022 (92/678/2) than in 2021 (119/869/2) due to better wide receiver options.

Josh Jacobs

Las Vegas gave Jacobs the ball 306 times over 15 games in 2020. His opportunity fell by 11.4% in 2021, leading to 1,120 combined yards with nine touchdowns on 271 touches. He set a career-high in catches (54) and receiving yards (348). However, Jacobs gained only 4.0 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per catch while gaining 20 yards or more on only four plays (eight over his past 577 chances). He rushed for more than 100 yards in two games at home (27/129 and 26/132/1). Jacobs played the best over his final five games (97/459/2 – 4.7 yards per rush and 14 catches for 110 yards).

The Raiders worked Jacobs hard last season, leading to 393 touches (23.1 per game), while most fantasy drafters avoided him. He gained 2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 50 catches, ranking him third in running back scoring (329.30) in PPR formats. Jacobs gained more than 100 rushing yards in six matchups (28/144/2, 21/154/1, 20/143/3, 24/109, 33/229/2, and 26/144/1), which happened to come on two three-game stretches. The Raiders gave him a floor of five catches in five contests (5/31, 5/31, 5/39, 6/28, and 6/74), accounting for 54% of his season’s receptions (50).

Fantasy Outlook: Las Vegas didn’t re-up his fifth-year option before last season, creating a franchise situation heading into the summer. If Jacobs holds out, he will slide in drafts. His early ADP (22) ranks him sixth at running back in the high-stakes market. Running backs coming off career seasons rarely repeats, especially after a massive workload. Jacobs starts the season at age 25, so he has plenty of life still in his game. I’ll set his bar at 300 touches for 1,400 yards with double-digit scores and 40+ catches. His questionable offensive line suggests his yards per rush will be closer to the league average (4.3).

Zamir White

The Bulldogs tend to have a deep bench of talented running backs, leading to multiple runners getting chances each season. White played in 15 games in 2021, but he gained only 931 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine catches on 169 touches. Over his three seasons, White finished with success in the run game (382/2,043/25) with minimal chances to catch the ball (17/132). He had only one contest with over 100 yards rushing (14/105) and fewer than 15 touches in 13 games in his final year in college.

I feel for pro athletes who work hard to strengthen and build their bodies for success. Unfortunately, White has already blown out his right (2017) and left (2018) ACLs. Georgia used him as a north/south runner, which led to plenty of contact in tight quarters. White had a grinder feel but flashed quickness and elusiveness when breaking free at the second level of the defense. When asked to make plays on the outside, he showed the ability to make defenders miss, thanks to a shimmy in his running style. White will make yards after contact while being at his best in late games.

The Raiders only had him on the field for 40 plays in his rookie season, leading to 70 yards on 17 carries.

Fantasy Outlook: White gives the Raiders early-down insurance for Josh Jacobs. He comes off the early draft board as the 66th running back in early PPR formats. White could work as a goal-line runner with value…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAIDERS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy!

[…]

2023 Tennessee Titans Outlook

July 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Tennessee Titans Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023 Tennessee Titans Outlook

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Tennessee Titans Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Ryan Tannehill

Since arriving in Tennessee in 2019, Tannehill has a 36-19 record with three playoff appearances. The injury to Derrick Henry in 2021 led to him seeing a slight bump in pass attempts (531) from 2020 (481).

Last season, he missed five matchups with an ankle injury, leading to regression in his role in the run game (34/98/2). Tannehill averaged only 27.1 passes, but 16.5% of his completions gained 20 yards or more. He threw for fewer than 200 yards in six games. His only outcome of value came in Week 11 (330/2). Tannehill has been sacked 80 times over 29 starts in 2021 and 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: With a questionable offensive line and below-league-average receiver options, Tannehill falls to the have-nots area of fantasy drafts at the quarterback position. He tends to be better than a game manager when on his game, but this offense appears to be moving in the wrong direction. At best, 3,500 passing yards with about 25 combined scores and some help in rushing stats.

Will Levis

Over his last two seasons at Kentucky, Levis completed 65.7% of his 5,232 yards with 43 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He rushed for 376 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021 in 107 carries, but his value as a runner was severely diminished last year (72/-107/2).

After passing for more than 300 yards in three of his first four games in 2022, the rigors of the SEC led to him failing to gain more than 230 yards via the air in his next seven starts while averaging only 23.7 pass attempts.

Fantasy Outlook: Levis should have the inside track to win the backup quarterback job based on his ability to move the chains with his arm. He’ll also have a closer skill set to Ryan Tannehill, making it easier for Tennessee to run the same offense with him behind center.

Malik Willis

In the new age of the NFL, more teams are looking for a mobile quarterback who offers a run/pass option to their game. Over two seasons at Liberty, Willis rushed for 1,922 yards on 338 carries with 27 rushing touchdowns. However, his completion rate (62.4) needs work, and interceptions (12) were an issue in 2021. He gained 8.5 yards per pass attempt, leading to 5,107 passing yards with 47 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college. However, over his last three games in 2021, Willis completed only 49.0% of his 104 passes for 698 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while facing Louisiana, Army, and Eastern Michigan. He also struggled to run the ball over his final six starts (72/223/4 – 3.1 yards per rush).

Willis can drive the ball when given a clean pocket, thanks to his plus arm strength. He also showed touch on deep passes. His challenge at the next level is reading defenses and making throws on time under duress. Willis needs plenty of work on his mechanics. NFL defense will force him to beat them via the pocket, where tips balls and his inaccuracy will become a problem early in his career. When given a chance to run, Willis will be dangerous in the open field. However, I expect him to struggle with passing touchdowns in the red zone.

In his rookie season, he completed 50.8% of his passes for 276 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Willis gained 123 yards on 27 carries with one score.

Fantasy Outlook: Willis looks more like a project, with the keys to his development coming from improved footwork in his setup when passing the ball and learning to read defenses. I’m also concerned about his long-term durability due to his expected high number of runs. In 2023, he’ll battle Will Levis for the backup quarterback job.

— Running Backs —

The rushing output by the Titans’ backs has declined in back-to-back seasons while maintaining a high floor in touchdowns (19, 18, and 18). Last year, they had a three-year low in rushing attempts (415 – 756 fewer than in 2021). On the positive side, the Titans have featured their running backs more in the passing game over the past two years (81/622/1 and 70/680/3).

Derrick Henry

The mystique of delivering a second great season after rushing for over 2,000 yards continued with Henry in 2021. He was well on his way to another productive year (1,091 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 18 catches) over eight starts while still having a shot at 2,000 rushing yards (219/937/10). Unfortunately, a foot injury put him on the shelf for his final nine games. Tennessee worked Henry early and often, leading to him receiving 29.6 touches per game. He was on pace to catch 38 balls for 327 yards, which would have been career-highs in both areas. The only strike for Henry was his drop in yards per rush (4.3) and lower number of big plays (three runs over 20 yards – 16 in 2020).

Last season, he was on pace to set a career-high in touches (382 – 23.9 per game) if Henry didn’t sit out Week 17 with a hip issue. The Titans had him on the field for 62.5% of their plays, compared to 66.4% in 2020. He rushed for more than 100 yards in nine starts, highlighted by another monster game vs. the Texans (32/291/2). Henry set a new top in catches (33) and receiving yards (398) despite having no catches over his first two contests. He finished with six plays gaining 40 yards or more.

Fantasy Outlook: Henry ranked fourth in running back scoring (305.80) in PPR formats with at least 22.00 fantasy points in eight matchups. Over the past four seasons over 55 games, he rushed for 6,042 yards and 56 touchdowns on 1,249 carries, with 88 catches for 872 yards and two scores. Henry comes off the board this year as the seventh running back with a late second-round ADP in 12-team formats. His bump in value in catches helps his floor, and no other back in the NFL should get more touches. I don’t like his offensive line, but Henry remains a beast with the ball in his hands. Let’s go with 1,700 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and a chance at 40 catches.

Tyjae Spears

In his second senior year at Tulane…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE TITANS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy!

[…]

2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR

July 18, 2023 Jody Smith

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy […]

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

Also, don’t forget to explore our previous 2023 strength of schedule analysis for quarterbacks and running backs. Now, let’s check out the 2023 fantasy football strength of schedule: WR.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

Favorable Schedules

Chris Olave & Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Playing six games in the NFC South certainly doesn’t hurt for the underrated New Orleans Saints receiving corps. QB Derek Carr should be a big improvement over Andy Dalton. Plus, Carr has a notable history of peppering his No. 1 wideout with targets. That should be a boon for sophomore Chris Olave, who already ranked 10th in the league with a 29.3% target rate in 2022.

Michael Thomas was also off to a fast start before succumbing to another season-ending injury. When healthy, Thomas remains an elite pass catcher. While his fantasy football ADP has started to creep up, Thomas remains an excellent value pick to target in drafts.

For Thomas and Olave, expect a fast start and finish. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule for wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 and again from Weeks 11-15. Also…

WHAT OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

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[…]

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Seattle Seahawks	14	4	30	13	15
Chicago Bears	31	27	25	31	26