It took more than five months to get here, but we’ve finally reached Super Bowl LVII. There was plenty of drama along the way. However, it feels like the right two squads are squaring off in the big game. Our Super Bowl Game Picks break down the game from a sports betting perspective.
Our best bets are on a 9-3 run so far in the NFL playoffs. This will be the biggest betting day of the year, so let’s break down the super bowl game picks.
Also, as an added bonus, some in-game prop bet picks from Billy Muzio himself.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Just looking at how each of these two power performed in the regular season is indicative of how close this game is. The game opened with the Eagles as 1-point favorites and an over/under of 49.5. A modest amount of action on Philadelphia pushed that to 1.5 but the total has risen by 1.5 points.
Combined, these two powers have a robust 32-6 record.
It is no real surprise that in today’s offensive-driven league, the top-2 units in football are here in the finale. The Eagles rushed for 2,509 yards in the regular season. Also, Philadelphia’s 39 rushing scores are a new NFL record.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ top-ranked offense led the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes, points, and yards per play. KC scored at least two touchdowns in every game en route to outscoring their opponents 496-369.
On paper, the biggest advantage in the game goes to the Eagles’ defense. While Kansas City has an above-average stop unit, Philadelphia boasted the league’s top pass defense. Plus, the Eagles ranked third overall and excelled at limiting opponents.
Philadelphia’s pass rush led the NFL with 70 sacks. The club’s ability to generate a consistent pass rush while dropping extra personnel into coverage can’t be understated.
In addition to getting to the quarterback, that defensive front helped the Eagles rank third in turnover rate and post the top DVOA pass defense mark in football.
However, the Chiefs were by no means a one-sided team. Kansas City’s secondary ranked fourth in net passing yards per attempt and did a good job against the run. They only surrendered 10 rushing scores all season- fifth fewest in the NFL.
Of course, a lot of that success can be attributed to the offenses. Teams were very often down and forced to abandon the run. That also led to some poor numbers against the pass. The Chiefs surrendered a league-worst 33 TD passes.
Not only can QB Jalen Hurts run with the best of them, but he’s also an excellent passer as well. Hurts gives a rushing attack that features Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott even more potency.
Philadelphia also has a big edge at wide receiver. Part of that has to do with health, but A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the top young pass-catching duos in the NFL.
Tight end Dallas Goedert also posted top-5 fantasy points per game totals in 2022.
This is already the third Super Bowl appearance for QB Patrick Mahomes. That makes Mahomes the youngest signal-caller in history to achieve that feat. Even hobbled by a high-ankle sprain, Mahomes exceeded 350 passing yards in both of KC’s post-season wins.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be activated for Sunday’s game. That adds reinforcements to a backfield that already trotted out Isiah Pacheco and pass-catching specialist Jerick McKinnon.
Even an underwhelming group of wideouts can’t contain Mahomes’ greatness. Kadarius Toney has given the offense a spark since his arrival. Impending free agent Juju Smith-Schuster has been the team’s top WR.
The biggest edge for the Chiefs is with All-Pro and future Hall-of-Fame TE Travis Kelce. The Eagles allowed 11.2 fantasy points per game to the position. Kelce has topped that figure 15 times this season.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City’s last five contests, including our correct call in the AFC Championship. However, the total has gone OVER in four of the past five matchups between the Eagles and Chiefs. Of course, that goes all the way back to 2005. The last time these two square off, the Chiefs won 42-30 in Philly back in 2021.
Philadelphia opening and staying favorites is huge. The Eagles have won 20 of their last 22 games outright when giving points.
The Birds have also covered in seven of their last nine postseason games. The UNDER has also hit in six straight playoff games for the Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 matchups versus NFC opponents. The only blemish was to Tampa back in Super Bowl LV.
Plus, betting on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as underdogs has been lucrative. Mahomes is now 8-1-1 as an underdog and Reid has gone 12-4-1 ATS in his last 17 games as an outright dog.
Speaking of Reid, he is also 3-0 against his former club. Also, teams that have an experienced Super Bowl signal caller have gone 19-15 over teams starting a QB in his first finale.
This will be the third Super Bowl for KC’s dynamic duo. The UNDER has hit in both previous games. Also, with the aforementioned recent history of going below the total between both squads, that will be my approach.
PICK: UNDER 51, secondary bet Kansas City +1.5 or ML
Billy Muzio’s Player Props
The Super Bowl is one of the most anticipated sporting events of the year, attracting millions of viewers from all over the world. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just enjoy the festivities, the big game is a time to come together with friends and family to enjoy some food, drinks, and, of course, some friendly wagers.
In conclusion, if you’re planning to place some bets this year, prop bets are a great way to add some excitement to the game. Therefore, we will look at the most popular Super Bowl prop bets for the upcoming game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, so you can make informed wagers and come out ahead.
The coin toss is always a popular Super Bowl prop bet. Also, it’s fun in its simplicity. First, fans can wager on the outcome of the toss, with heads or tails being the two options. Similarly, the odds are typically even for both outcomes, so it’s a 50-50 shot. Finally, looking at the trend of the previous 54 Super Bowls, tails has won 29 times, including six of the past seven Super Bowls. DKSportsbook has both at +100.
Billy’s Bet: Tails
National Anthem Time
In addition, another popular Super Bowl prop bet is the National Anthem time. You can bet on how long the performer will take to complete the National Anthem. The over/under line is at 119.5 seconds at FanDuel Sports Book. Under is juiced at +200, while over is sitting at -250.
This year’s Eight-time Grammy, 15-time CMA, and 10-time ACM Award-winner Chris Stapleton will sing the national anthem. Above all, country music singers have a tendency to prolong the anthem. Especially in the spotlight. Therefore, I’m thinking this will go long.
Billy’s Bet: Over
Super Bowl LVII M.V.P.
One of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets is the MVP award. You can bet on which player will be named the Most Valuable Player of the game. From 2012 to 2021 (the last 10 Super Bowls), the MVP award was won by a quarterback six times. While it’s not a guarantee that the MVP will be a quarterback every year, it’s worth noting that the position has a strong track record of winning the award over the past decade.
Billy’s Bet: Jalen Hurts +120 DKSportsbook
First TD Scorer
Another popular Super Bowl prop bet is the first touchdown scorer. Travis Kelce has been the first touchdown scorer in 8 contests.
Billy’s Bet: Travis Kelce +700 at DKSports
Finally, you can also place a wager on the game’s final score. This can be trickier, as the odds of a specific score happening are typically lower, but the payouts can be much higher if you’re correct.
These are just a few of the Super Bowl prop bets available this year. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer, these are a great way to add excitement to the big game. So, gather your friends, make wagers, and enjoy the Super Bowl!
Billy’s Bet: Eagles 31, Chiefs 28
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