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The four-year experiment with Todd Bowles has come to an end. After leading New York to a 10-6 record in 2015, the Jets won only 14 of their last 34 games while extending their missed playoff streak to eight seasons. Their next attempt at the postseason will come from Adam Gase who went 23-25 over three seasons with the Dolphins and one playoff berth. Gase has 17 years of experience coaching in the NFL.
Dowell Loggains takes over as the offensive coordinator, which is the same position he held over the last three seasons in Chicago and Miami with the latter coming under Gase. Last year New York ranked 23rd in points scored and 29th in offensive yards. They scored 35 more points than in 2017 (298).
The Jets brought in Gregg Williams to run the defense after spending 2018 as the defensive coordinator and interim head coach for the Browns. Williams has been in charge of an NFL defense for 14 seasons. Gregg went 22-34 over four different years as a head coach. In 2018, the Jets finished 25th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed (441).
Last year the Jets ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time, which is a number they hope to increase in 2019 with Le’Veon Bell added to the roster. New York needs to control the ball on offense while improving on defense. Game score will be crucial to the value of their passing attack. It will be easy for a Fantasy owner to overrate their run game based on one star RB added to the team. The lack of star options in the passing game will allow defenses to be aggressive defending the run.
In his rookie season, Darnold make 13 starts with a 4-9 record. His completion rate (57.7) needs growth. More importantly, he needs to clean up interceptions (15). Sam finished with 2,865 yards passing with 17 TDs. He ran the ball about three times a game (44/138/1). His best two starts came at home (334/1 and 341/3) against the Dolphins and the Packers. Darnold had one TD or fewer in eight games.
Over the first eight games, he had five games with a completion rate of 50.0 percent or lower.
Sam missed three games with a foot injury. Adam Gase helped Peyton Manning and the Broncos to two top-four finishes in passing yards, which shows he wants to throw if given the right personnel. Darnold should work his way into a good game manager in 2019. He has a developing TE, a high-volume pass-catching back, and a reasonable combination at WR (Robby Anderson – speed, Quincy Enuma – size, and Jamison Crowder – possession) if all players stay healthy and perform up to expectations. Next step: 3,500+ passing yards with a league average TDs (25).
Other Options: Trevor Siemian, Davis Webb, Luke Falk
The Steelers didn’t give Bell a new contract, which ended up leading to a full season holdout. Over 62 games in his career, Le’Veon has 42 TDs while never scoring more than 11 TDs in any season. Bell is a great NFL back who can do it all. In his NFL career, he’s averaged 24.9 touches and 129 combined yards per game. Last year the Jets’ RBs combined for 361 rushes for 1,452 yards and ten TDs in the run game plus 68 catches for 599 yards and two TDs on 102 targets.
Based on these stats, New York has a floor of 463 chances for their RB with over 2,000 combined yards and a dozen TDs.
Bell should receive 90 percent of the RB chances if used similarly as with the Steelers. With 350 touches in 2019, Le’Veon has the opportunity to gain 1,700+ yards with double-digit TDs and 75+ catches. His offensive line isn’t great, and defenses may try to stack the box vs. the run. His patient style will lead to many small plays on the ground in this offense, but his explosiveness should shine through in many games. My starting point in his value is a step below his opportunity with the Steelers until New York proves it’s way on offense.
Over four seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette, Elijah rushed for 4,301 yards with 42 rushing TDs. His yards per rush declined in each season (8.4, 7.6, 5.0, and 4.9) despite rising rushes (103, 166, 209, and 232). He finished with 130 catches for 1,394 yards and another 10 TDs with declining value in his yards per catch (17.5, 10.4, 8.9, and 8.2) in each season as well. He did play through a foot injury in 2016 that limited his explosiveness.
Overall, he needs to improve his ability to pick up the blitz before playing on early downs. McGuire has more speed than short area quickness while needing to improve his vision and decision making. In his rookie season, Elijah had 105 touches for 492 combined yards with two TDs and 17 catches. He gained only 3.6 yards per rush while showing explosiveness in the passing game (10.4 yards per catch). Last year he missed the first eight games with a foot injury. The Jets featured him over previous four games of the season, which led to 304 combined yards with four TDs and 11 catches helping some fortunate Fantasy owners to overall prizes in the season-long contests.
Even with his bump in chances (19.5 per game), McGuire gained only 2.7 yards per rush. The change in RB structure in New York pushes Elijah to a bench warmer on most plays while waiting for an injury to be rewarded with more chances.
One wrong decision on a kick return led to Montgomery getting traded mid-season to the Ravens. He finished the year with 41 rushes for 188 yards and one TD while gaining 4.6 yards per rush. Ty had a lower catch rate (60) for a RB, but he did gain 9.4 yards per catch (25/235). His game offered the most upside in 2016 with the Packers when he gained 805 combined yards with three TDs and 44 catches on 121 touches. Montgomery is a former WR, which makes him a viable option in the passing game if New York decides to use him in different ways. This season Ty will compete with Elijah McGuire for the backup role with the Jets. The winner will receive minimal chances unless Le’Veon Bell gets injured.
Other Options: Trenton Cannon, De’Angelo Henderson, Valentine Holmes, Jalin Moore
After showing growth in 2017 (63/941/7 on 114 targets), Anderson struggled to find his rhythm over the first nine games (23/368/3 on 48 targets) with Sam Darnold starting at QB. He missed the 8th and 10th game of the season with an ankle injury. His production was much improved over the last four games (24/360/3 on 38 targets) highlighted by his game in Week 16 (9/140/1). The Patriots shut him down in Week 17 (3/24 on eight targets). In the end, his catch rate (532.) regressed from 2017 (58.3) while continuing to make big plays (15.0 yards per catch). Viable WR3 in PPR leagues with a chance to push his catch total to over 70 with 1,000+ yards and six to eight TDs.
Over the first four games in 2019, Enunwa looked to be on pace for a breakout season after catching 21 of his 36 targets for 278 yards and one TD. An ankle injury led to six missed games and lost value in his other seven starts (17/171/0 on 32 targets). In his best season in 2016, Quincy flashed upside when he caught 58 of his 105 targets for 857 yards and four TDs. His size (6’2’ and 225 lbs.) is an edge. This season he needs to improve on his catch rate (55.9). Possible breakout, but the Jets have more options in the passing game in 2019. A chance at a 60/900 season with a handful of TDs.
Disappointment is the word to use to describe Crowder over the last two years. His game was trending forward in 2016 (67/847/7 on 99 targets). His final stats in 2017 (66/789/3 on 103 targets) were comparable, but Fantasy owners priced him as a breakout player. Last year he missed seven games with an ankle injury. When on the field, Jamison only caught 29 of 49 chances for 388 yards and two TDs. He scored over ten Fantasy points in PPR leagues in three games (4/39/1, 2/87/1, and 5/78). Adam Gase stated that he wants to get Crowder 70 to 90 catches in 2019, which is the ceiling Fantasy owners expected two seasons ago. I can’t overpay for his recent resume. A coin toss to match either of the top two WRs projects in 2019.
Other Options: Josh Bellamy, Charone Peake, Deontay Burnett, Tim White, J.J. Jones, Greg Dortch
Over three seasons at Miami in college, Herndon had 86 catches for 1,048 yards and seven TDs. His best year came in 2017 (40/477/4) despite missing a couple of games. Chris will threaten defenses in the deep passing game while needing to improve his route running. His hands remain in question while offering the quickness to beat defenses in the open field or off the line of scrimmage. In his rookie season, Herndon started 12 games leading to 39 catches for 502 yards and four TDs on 56 targets. He scored a TD in three straight games while delivering one strong game (6/82/1). Last year, the Jets’ TEs caught 67 passes for 735 yards and four TDs on 101 targets. This season Chris looks poised to catch 55+ balls for 600+ yards and growth in TDs.
Other Options: Jordan Leggett, Trevon Wesco, Eric Tomlinson, Neal Sterling, Daniel Brown
Last year Catanzaro played in 13 games for two different teams. He made 16 of his 20 field goals with all three from 50 yards or more going through the uprights. Chandler did miss on five of his 35 field goals. Over his first four seasons in the NFL, he made 84.4 percent of his field goals. The Jets scored 34 TDs in 2018 while creating plenty of field goal chances (36). New York should move the ball this year, which gives Catanzaro to be playable in multiple games in the Fantasy market.
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