WEEK 10 INTRODUCTION
Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week.
WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS? These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays. In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups.
AMBUSH STRATEGY THIS WEEK
I get the feeling this is the ultimate ‘trap’ weekend in the NFL. Every team who stands out as having an elite match-up offensively is either on the road in less than ideal offensive conditions (Atlanta, New Orleans), is an extremely high favorite (Kansas City, LA Chargers) has a divisional game that I feel is a trap (LA Rams) or falls into the category of ‘yeah theyre nice but….. theyre the Redskins/Bucs’ (Skins/Bucs). So my feeling this week is that the underdogs are sneaky this week and this is a fantastic tournament week where the chalk is going to be spread out and won’t have huge days.
THOUGHTS ON GAMES THAT DO VERY LITTLE FOR ME
Bills at Jets … Will Josh McCown manage to get 2x? Yes. Is 2x an amazing score? In cash it’s alright but give me Taysom Hill for 4k if you wanna punt Quarterback this week (okay, im not dead serious on that…. or am I?)
Falcons at Browns … I am fading this game. I do not like the Falcons back to back weeks outdoors and I think last week was a spot where they caught the overhyped Redskins at the exact right time and they were coming off a BYE. Yes, Cleveland is completely worn down on defense as they have literally had the most snaps on defense of any team since they’ve played a ton of OT and have a shitty offense putting them on the field constantly. They’re definitely tired, but that plays more into Ito Smith and Tevin Coleman for me than the Falcons passing game for me and I know exactly how this ends up. Coleman gets around 100 total yards from scrimmage but doesn’t score, Ito Smith gets about 40 yards and a score (nice on DK) and Matt Ryan throws one B.S. touchdown to Mohamed Sanu. Falcons win 27-11 because only the Browns can manage to put up a stupid score of 11 points with one TD, a failed 2 pt conversion, a field goal and a safety. F this chalk game.
Dolphins at Packers … Another game where we gotta like the favorite (Packers) here but the DFS plays you WANT to play are not the smart plays. I WANT to say Rodgers-Adams-MVS but the Dolphins funnel to the run game which means Aaron Jones and I have zero confidence in Mike McCarthy. I love MVS and I don’t mind Adams, but it’s gonna be cold and we have the Dolphins unable to keep up here so this is a fade spot outside of Jones or MVS in cash. This is me being bored by the game than the DFS side here.
Seahawks at Rams … Yep. I’m punting this game. Have you seen/heard what is going in near LA this week? Not just the shooting that occurred earlier in the week but the fires that have engulfed the region for the last few days causing deaths, evacuations and complete disaster. The shooting itself had no impact on the team and I’m not trying to be a cold heartless bastard here, it was a tragic event, but it’s not the issue that could cause the team to have issues. It’s the fires. The Rams are going to be flying down to Mexico City for a game against the Chiefs after this game with the Seahawks and have already stated that because they cannot fly out immediately from Mexico City and land in LA in the middle of the night that they’re going to stay a day or two in Mexico City and fly out later during their BYE week. So that means that all the Rams players and coaches (well over 45 of them) who have been evacuated and impacted by the fires are basically spending all week this week trying to get their families and homes prepared for them being gone for 7-10 days — not to mention in an entirely different country. All this while everything is beating down on their homes? I’ve seen this with hurricane teams and while missing a practice (as they did Friday) or walk through (as they likely will Saturday) is not the end of the world, I really feel this is a BAD spot for the Rams and this game is going to go way under in total points.
MY AMBUSH PICKS
I hate the Quarterback spot this week and I really dug into the ‘High’ priced QB tier this week and looked for the Quarterback that I felt not only had a good match-up but also would give zero shits and throw it. 40 times no matter what the score is and can put up 4 TD with reasonably priced passing targets
- Aaron Rodgers? I worry too much about Aaron Jones and I don’t think Miami has anything to keep it close and if that happens the Packers slow down…
- Patty Mahomes? Kareem Hunt left and right all game. Plus Cardinals will be able to pick up third downs and stay on field and slow this game down…
- Drew Brees? It’s a ground and pound game for the Saints and while I think Brees has a solid game this week — I dont see him doing 350 and 3 scores …
- Phil Rivers? See below, it’s all Melvin Gordon in a blowout.
But Brady? Who gives less ***** than New England and Tom Brady? Going up against former Patriot Mike Vrabel’s team and a team coming off a short week win on MNF? You do not run on Tennessee. You pass on the Titans. New England will see this and exploit it all day long. I expect no huddle hurry up and I think you are a fooling yourself hard if you don’t think New England is gonna pick on Malcom Butler. Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman BOTH going 100 yards and a TD here this week with Brady.
Do not play DFS the rest of the season without having exposure to whomever the Raiders are facing. Did you not see last Thursday night? Nick Mullens is NOT an NFL Quarterback. Not at all. He barely was relevant in college football (and by barely, I mean … he wasnt). But who said Mullens in Captain spot and got laughed at? Right. F’n attack the Raiders with SOMEONE. Even if you fade Melvin Gordon, you HAVE to go with someone from the Chargers. Oakland second half is going to be what Tampa was in the first half and I’ll take the sure thing Melvin Gordon here at RB this week. Austin Ekeler taking some touches away does scare me, but even then I feel pretty good that Gordon will score multiple times in a blowout.
Fantastic bounce back spot for Evans this week. The Skins/Bucs game should have points and nice game flow in it as I do not see either team doing ANYTHING rushing the ball. Washington has O-Line issues and the match-up dictates throwing the ball and Tampa’s running game is the worst in the NFL against a decent Redskins front 4. I expect Evans to win some physical battles with the Redskins secondary and while Fitz will definitely throw a few passes 10 feet over his head, I also trust the volume Evans should get here at home in a nice game flow for him.
Defense is critical, do not sleep on it every week and just click one randomly at the end of your lineup construction. I want to lock in my potential defenses first when constructing a lineup as I have more options in the WR range that I can pick from who all have the same upside but not at defense. To me there’s only a few each week to consider and this week my top one is the Packers. They’re getting 2+ sacks a game while the Dolphins are giving up 2+ sacks a game, so we have nice upside there and Brock Osweiler having to throw from behind is a nice turnover upside play as well. Gimme the Packers D to accumulate the points in the afternoon in a blowout.
MY POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Don’t take my short write-ups on these guys as anything too seriously this week. Lots of good content on the 4th and Ambush podcast this week and I just didn’t want to write fricken books on them this week for you. The research is behind them all…
TOM BRADY … Detailed him above, he is my favorite “elite” QB this week to go off for 350 & 3 TD.
ALEX SMITH … Smith is someone I trust in all formats this week. I think that folks will see his name and run away despite the really good match-up but I feel the Skins offense will still be able to score on Tampa even without half their offensive line and a lack of quality WR talent. Smith rushes one in this week.
MARCUS MARIOTA … Given the fact that I love the Patriots offense so much this week this game reminds me of two games these teams have played this year (not vs each other). For Mariota, he seems to be in the exact same spot Trubisky was in when the Pats destroyed Chicago earlier this year and Mariota will have compile a ton of garbage stats in the second half which helps him hit value and the other game it reminds me of is the Titans-Eagles game when Mariota also had one of his better games this season. Not my main lineup play but a nice value pivot off Brady.
MELVIN GORDON … Overall I think he has one of the best match-ups here, the Chargers RB scoring twice would not shock me at all but I worry about Ekeler taking away from him.
KAREEM HUNT … Unlike Gordon, Hunt really doesn’t have any other RB to steal from him this week in the nut spot against Arizona. Expect him to be the most popular player on the entire slate on both sites this week. Which makes him worthy of a fade consideration go guys like Kamara and Gordon.
MARK INGRAM … Yes, I am going RIGHT back to my boy Ingram this week, on the road he will be the lead back this week with Kamara being the PPR target that we know and love, but I don’t see the TD upside for either guy this week to feel that they are must plays.
AARON JONES … Best way to get exposure on the Packers is Jones and the Defense.
DUKE JOHNSON … Higher ranked for me on DK.
GOTTA GET ONE OF THESE
MIKE EVANS … See above, he is my favorite one off WR play this week.
JOSH GORDON & JULIAN EDELMAN … Lock and loaded. How are these two not 50% this week? Go ahead and chase Julio Jones and shit. You can get these mid range guys and then pay up at RB.
MIKE THOMAS … Of course he is in play. Should see his regular volume of targets here, but the Saints I like to score are TreQuan Smith, Josh Hill and Mark Ingram. Thomas volume and elite status though makes him a nice cash game option off of guys like Adams, Jones and Keenan Allen.
DAVANTE ADAMS … Same boat as M.Thomas for me. High volume, but I am leaning Jones and the Packers D. I’ll have one Adams lineup just in case he does go off for 2 TD.
MID AND VALUE RANGE
KENNY GOLLADAY … Another bounce back play, the volume is going to come this week as he returns to his home town Chicago. Weather is a slight concern.
MO SANU … He scores for Atlanta.
LARRY FITZGERALD … Usage going back up with B-Leftwich calling the shots.
Do you know how pissed I am that Jeremy Kerley was released by Buffalo earlier this year? I could literally have a Mo, Larry and Kerley WR trio and go full donkey mode….
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING … Good value play but don’t expect him to WIN your GPP on his own.
MO HARRIS … Redskins are very limited in terms of weapons and I do not see them running the ball at all this week, making Harris a solid value play
JARED COOK … Once again I hate TE this week but he gives me something on the Raiders side. If you don’t go here then consider Chargers D
JACK DOYLE … I think this game stays close and Doyle/Ebron are the guys why.
VERNON DAVIS … I dont want to talk about it, ok? For those of you who don’t understand why I don’t want to talk about it, just go google Saints-49ers NFC playoffs and stay the F*** away from me on Twitter.
JOSH HILL … Longshot Saints call.
We should be starting our research with defense every week. You should be locking in your defense and THEN build your lineup. The reason is that we have more options at WR and FLEX that dont have the variance of missing the right defense and while we got lucky EARLY in the season with defenses, we’re starting to see that flip as some teams start to punt entirely on offense and we get less ideal offensive conditions. Make sue you are smart about defenses this week.
Now, here’s why you should play the Saints ….
ok… just kidding (sort of).
GREEN BAY PACKERS … The Packers are getting 2+ sacks every game + the Dolphins are giving up 2+ sacks per game. So lets lock in three sacks (Steve math folks). Next. Brock Osweiler. Okay cool, that’s two turnovers. Throw in that Miami is not scoring more than 10 points this week and they could score? Love the Packers this week and that’s why we aren’t playing Rodgers.
NEW YORK JETS … Teams vs Bills.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS … The Colts are avoiding sacks this year which has me down on the Jags but I bet they play well.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS … You thought I was kidding didn’t you? It’s a punt GPP play, but I really like the Packers/Jets more on my main lineup. I think the Saints D shows up and gets a few sacks on Dalton this week who really doesn’t have quality WR targets here to exploit the Saints defense and the Bengals won’t run it effectively on New Orleans.
- Rams score under 20 points. Gurley 1 TD. Woods 1 TD.
- 8 of the 11 main slate underdogs cover
- Saints and Rams both lose
- Packers defense scores twice and records a safety
- Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick set football back 50 years