Week 4

Jordan Love Green Bay Packers
Season Long – All Sports

Week 5 NFL Player Props

October 4, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we […]

Week 5 NFL Player Props

Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we can get back in the winning column with our Week 5 NFL Player Props. We are now 16-11 in the young season.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props!

Jordan Love OVER 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams’ defense has struggled across the board, but their pass defense is especially concerning. They’ve allowed the most yards per completion (12.6) and air yards per attempt (10.3) in the league, and now they face Jordan Love, who ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in average depth of target.

After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Love returned last Sunday, shaking off a slow first half to rack up 389 passing yards by the end of the game—following up his 260-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 1. Love and the Packers are primed for another big outing, and they get a bonus boost from the Rams’ defensive scheme. According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams run zone defense at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap when in zone.

Green Bay excels against zone defenses, and their wide receivers—Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs—are thriving. All three are in the Top 25 in yards per catch vs. zone and in the Top 30 in yards per route run against zone coverage, making them a dangerous trio for this matchup.

The only real threat to this passing total is if the Packers open up a huge lead and go run-heavy, but with their defense also struggling, this game could stay competitive enough for Love to keep airing it out all four quarters…

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Jets Rookie RB Breece Hall
Season Long – All Sports

Week 4 NFL Player Props

September 26, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 4 NFL Player Props Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to […]

Week 4 NFL Player Props

Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to a double-unit bet on Jauan Jennings after a pivot from George Kittle (who was a surprise inactive on Sunday). On the season, we are now 14-6 (70% conversion rate) and +8.9 Units! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 4 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets! Like last week, I’ll be featuring one Thursday Night Football wager since our Week 3 TNF Anytime Touchdown bet cashed!

Lamar Jackson OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Coming off a heavy workload, Derrick Henry may take a bit of a backseat this week, with Lamar Jackson poised to steal the spotlight—just like we saw in Baltimore’s season opener. And given the context of this matchup, it makes sense. The Bills’ front seven has shown some vulnerability, especially when it comes to stopping the run, despite their impressive 3rd-place rank in Run Defense Win Rate. A closer look reveals they sit at a lowly 26th in PFF’s Run Defense Grade, signaling potential cracks in their armor.

Lamar has cleared this line in two of three games this season. The two times he did it, he decimated the line with 122 rushing yards in Week 1 and 87 rushing yards in Week 3. He’s averaging 84.6 rushing yards per game through three weeks of the season and is going to need to use his legs to keep the chains moving.

What makes this matchup even more intriguing is Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Their tendency to anchor linebackers in coverage while relying heavily on just their front four to generate pressure leaves them exposed, especially against mobile quarterbacks like Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line, which ranks above league average in both Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, is well-positioned to keep Buffalo’s pressure at bay. With minimal resistance up front, Lamar Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of open rushing lanes…

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dak prescott ceedee lamb
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

September 25, 2024 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

In Week 3, the AFC East let us down with a non-competitive drubbing. This week, things have more potential with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to New Jersey to face the Giants. Hopefully, the second week in a row in this venue has more scoring. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 looks at all the fantasy-relevant players to forecast the game.

It’s always entertaining to watch these two NFC East rivals square off. The Cowboys are reeling after dropping two straight home games. Conversely, they had won their previous 17 at AT&T Stadium. Therefore, they’re probably welcoming a change of scenery. And a game against a foe they’ve defeated in 11 of their last 12 matchups.

Conversely, the Giants are coming off of an upset win in Cleveland. New York’s offense has been more competent after their opener. With some momentum, they’re trying to get to 500 while simultaneously delivering a knockout punch to their hated rivals.

This game opened with Dallas favored by four. However, the line quickly jumped up to Dallas -6. The total stands at 45, up a meager half-point from its opening total.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Dallas Cowboys 9 1 30 16 6
New York Giants 22 21 19 25 29

The Dallas offensive ranks look good on paper. However, a big chunk of that production came in futile comeback attempts in their past two losses. The lack of balance and inability to run the ball has hurt the Cowboys.

Additionally, the Dallas defense has crumbled.

The Cowboys currently rank 28th in overall defense and have allowed the third-most points. Dallas ranks dead last against the run and has allowed 28-plus points in every game.

New York is surrendering 318 yards of offense per game, which is middle of the pack. However, only three teams have scored fewer points. Look for the Giants to try to slow things down and exploit that struggling defense.

On defense, the Giants rank 13th against the pass. They’re worst against the run (23rd) but don’t expect Dallas to be able to exploit that.

The real question here is can the Cowboys stop the bleeding to cool off Mike McCarthy’s hot seat?

Dallas Offense 

Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards. However, touchdowns have been hard to come by. Prescott has only thrown…

 

How will Thursday’s Cowboys vs. Giants game go?

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Season Long – All Sports

Waiver Wire: Week 4

September 23, 2024 Jody Smith

Waiver Wire: Week 4  The only thing we know after three weeks is that we don’t know. The 2024 season is off to a wild start. And more injuries and ineffective players are piling up. Our Waiver Wire: Week 4 […]

Waiver Wire: Week 4 

The only thing we know after three weeks is that we don’t know. The 2024 season is off to a wild start. And more injuries and ineffective players are piling up. Our Waiver Wire: Week 4 has the top adds to target ahead of the one-quarter mark.

Along with knowing who to pick up, FullTime Fantasy‘s Matchup Analyzer Tool will help you get the most out of your lineup.

Here are the low-rostered players you should consider adding ahead of the season’s third week.

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Roschon Johnson (RB) Chicago Bears – D’Andre Swift ranks 82nd out of 93 running backs graded by PFF in 2024. Swift is averaging a putrid 1.7 yards after contact and has been the third-least elusive back in football. Therefore, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before Swift is benched. Johnson got 13 touches in Week 3, just three fewer than Swift. Also, Johnson produced more yards on fewer touches and was far more efficient as a runner and receiver. A proactive bid on Johnson now might secure you the Bears’ starter sooner rather than later. Subsequently, Khalil Herbert also makes sense as a proactive target in deeper leagues.

Bucky Irving (RB) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Irving highlighted last week‘s waiver wire piece. Rachaad White continues to struggle and the rookie out-snapped him in Tampa’s humiliating loss to Denver. If Irving is still available, he’s a primary add this week.

Braelon Allen (RB) New York Jets – The Jets are firmly committed to utilizing both of their outstanding young backs. Allen is still available in about 65% of leagues. However, that will change this week. Allen is among the best handcuffs in football. Additionally, he’s had standalone value in the past two games. Allen is a top-30 fantasy back through three games and needs to be a priority add where he’s un-rostered.

Jauan Jennings (WR) San Francisco 49ers – It’s important to have realistic expectations. Jennings blew up in Week 3 but…

 

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Ja'Marr Chase
DFS

Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

September 30, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Keenan Allen (45.95) and Davante Adams (42.20) posted the two impact fantasy point games at wide receiver in Week 3. Adam Thielen (31.50) built on his success in Week 2 (20.40), while Tyreek Hill […]

Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Keenan Allen (45.95) and Davante Adams (42.20) posted the two impact fantasy point games at wide receiver in Week 3. Adam Thielen (31.50) built on his success in Week 2 (20.40), while Tyreek Hill (9/157/1) and Justin Jefferson (7/149/1) closed out the five scoring in PPR leagues. Seven other wideouts scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers after the three games:

  • Keenan Allen (91.25)
  • Tyreek Hill (90.20)
  • Justin Jefferson (77.80)
  • Davante Adams (75.20)
  • Mike Evans (64.70)

There have been eight wide receiver games with at least 30.00 fantasy points.

Here is the Week 4 DFS: Wide Receiver Report. Also, check out this week’s QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $9,600/FD – $9,400)

The most consistent elite wide receiver after three weeks has been Jefferson (9/150, 11/159, and 7/149/1), highlighted by his 38 targets (12, 13, and 13). The Vikings have had him on the field for 97.5% of their 204 plays. He’s gained over 100 yards in 13 of his last 21 starts while having a floor of seven catches in 14 of those games.

The Panthers have the fourth-best defense against wide receivers (31/396/1 on 49 targets). DK Metcalf (6/112) is the only wideout to gain over 100 yards. In Week 1, Carolina faced a Falcons offense that attempted only 18 passes. That led to only three catches for 31 yards by their wide receivers. Last year, the Panthers finished 28th defending wide receivers.

Jefferson is the most explosive ticket on the board each week. Especially if he adds impact touchdowns to his electric production. In addition, the Vikings have averaged 46 passes in 2023. It’s all about finding enough value to fit Jefferson in your DFS lineup.

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,600)

Over his three starts in 2023, Hill has two difference-maker showings (11/215/2 and 9/157/1) while scoring in each matchup. Last year, he struggled to get open in both games (2/33 and 7/69) against the Bills, one without Tua Tagovailoa behind center. In the postseason in 2021, Hill excelled in the postseason (11/150/1) with Kansas City at home vs. Buffalo.

The Bills rank third in wide receiver defense (24/303/2 on 36 targets), allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 12 sacks (nine in Week 3). Buffalo gave up only three touchdowns over the first three games (@NYJ, LA, and @WAS). In 2022, the Bills were about league average against wideouts (32.38 FPPG). 

This matchup for Miami isn’t ideal for Hill based on the…

 

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mark andrews
DFS

Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report

September 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report Heading into Week 4, there have been 25 touchdowns scored by tight ends. Donald Parham leads the way with three scores despite only having six catches for 32 on seven targets on the season. […]

Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report

Heading into Week 4, there have been 25 touchdowns scored by tight ends. Donald Parham leads the way with three scores despite only having six catches for 32 on seven targets on the season. He’s been on the field for about 50% of the Chargers’ snaps. T.J. Hockenson leads tight ends in targets (28), followed by Sam LaPorta (22). 

In Week 3, only LaPorta (22.40) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, thanks to a 45-yard touchdown. Nine tight ends finished between 10.90 and 19.90 fantasy points. Only two tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in a week.

Here are the top five tight ends after three weeks:

  • T.J. Hockenson (51.90)
  • Sam LaPorta (42.60)
  • Hunter Henry (37.50)
  • Evan Engram (35.30)
  • Travis Kelce (32.50)

These are the only tight ends averaging more than 10.00 fantasy points per week.

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 4 DFS: QB Report and RB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,800)

After three games, Kelce averaged 16.25 FPPG in PPR formats in PPR formats over his two starts. Last year, his season average was 18.88 fantasy points. That puts him about 14% behind his pace in 2022. The Chiefs had Kelce on the field for 61% of their plays last week due to a blowout game, down from 64% in Week 2. On the positive side, his light workload did make him look swifter versus the Bears. Kelce has done more of his work close to the line of scrimmage (8.6 yards per catch – 12.2 in 2022 and 12.7 in his career before this season). Patrick Mahomes looked his way 8.5 times a game in his two starts.

The Jets fell to 30th in tight end defense (16.97 FPPG) after getting beat by New England’s tight ends in Week 3 (5/108/1). Most of the damage came on a broken play touchdown (58 yards) to the Patriots’ third tight end (Pharaoh Brown – 2/71/1). Tight ends have 16 catches for 169 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets against New York.

Kelce remains an edge at tight end due to his upside potential. But it does come with a price in the DFS market due to his high salary. He must score 30.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to be viable. That’s an outcome Kelce reached twice in 2022 (33.50 and 35.50). I don’t see the Jets pushing the envelope on the scoreboard, costing Kelce the follow-through needed to be an edge in the daily games in Week 4.

George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,300)

 

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