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Week 11 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 11 DFS: Running Back Report Brian Robinson surprised in the passing game (6/119/1) against Seattle, highlighted by a 51-yard catch and run for a touchdown, helping him to the top running back production (157 yards with one score and […]
Brian Robinson surprised in the passing game (6/119/1) against Seattle, highlighted by a 51-yard catch and run for a touchdown, helping him to the top running back production (157 yards with one score and six catches) in Week 10. Jahmyr Gibbs (26.20 fantasy points) finished second, giving him an explosive run over the last three weeks (82.70 fantasy points). A starting job and over 80% of the running back snaps for Devin Singletary (30/150/1 with one catch for 11 yards) led to him rounding out the trifecta. Finally, only three other running backs score more than 20.00 fantasy points – Austin Ekeler (21.50), Javonte Williams (21.00), and Christian McCaffrey (20.20). Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 10 games:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.73)
- Raheem Mostert (19.07)
- Travis Etienne (18.92)
- Kenneth Walker (15.00)
- Rachaad White (14.83)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 11 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,300/FD – $10,000)
Nine games into 2023, McCaffrey only has one impact game (20/106/3 with seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown) on his resume. His six high-floor outcomes (25.90, 22.50, 22.90, 23.60, 29.80, and 20.20) work well in the season-long contest but a more challenging piece to win with in the DFS market. A big lead by the 49ers vs. Jacksonville led to McCaffrey being on the field for 76% of their plays, coming after two high snaps games (100% and 97%). His scoring streak ended at 17 games in Week 10.
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with the second-best defense vs. running backs (15.49 FPPG). No team scored more than 25.00 fantasy points from their backs in any game vs. the Bucs in 2023. Also, they allow 3.7 yards per rush, with running backs scoring only one touchdown (via the pass – 45/284/1 on 54 targets). Quarterbacks scored four times on the ground. However, the Eagles’ backs had the best success (30/173 with two catches for 13 yards).
McCaffrey has two data points that make him an against-the-grain option in Week 11. His salary requires 37+ fantasy points vs. a team that limits the damage in running back scoring. When the best player in the game is expected to be on a low number of rosters with the tools to post a monster showing on any given Sunday, he must be in the mix in the DFS market if possible…
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Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre […]
The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre Swift (9.4) fell short of expectations in fantasy points. Rachaad White took advantage of his favorable matchup to post his best outing (20/73/2 and 4/46) of his young career. Only four other backs (Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.90, Josh Jacobs – 21.80, Austin Ekeler – 21.00, and Keaton Mitchell – 20.80) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.07)
- Derrick Henry (15.34)
- Josh Jacobs (14.56)
Gus Edwards has been the top-scoring back over the last three weeks (21.40, 29.40, and 17.20).
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Elite Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)
For any daily gamer starting their roster with McCaffrey, they tied up 18.4% of the salary at DraftKings and 17.5% at FanDuel. He averages 26.43 and 23.05 fantasy points at those sites, giving him a floor of 2.87X and 2.19X if McCaffrey hits his scoring average. His only impact game (48.70 fantasy points) came in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals at home. He scored at least 22.50 fantasy points in five other matchups, with his second-highest output (29.80) coming in Week 8.
McCaffrey gains his edge by scoring touchdowns (13 over eight games). He reached paydirt in 17 consecutive contests. Over his last two starts, the 49ers had him on the field for 98.2% of their snaps.
The Jaguars are about league average in running back defense (15th – 19.68 FPPG), with their down games in fantasy points allowed coming in Week 6 (29.40) and Week 7 (30.70). Over the last three games, running backs have been productive in catches (1IND – 11/84, NO – 12/91, and PIT – 9/61) while receiving 38 combined targets. Jacksonville allowed 3.6 yards per rush (16.9 attempts per game by running backs). No team has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game (four total by running backs).
For McCaffrey to pay off in Week 10, the Jaguars’ defense would have to have their worst day of the season. Also, the 49ers’ top back would have to score almost all of the team’s fantasy points. On the positive side, he could have his best day catching the ball based on the direction of Jacksonville’s defense in this area over the past three weeks. McCaffrey has the highest floor in the game while forcing a DFS player to be creative when filling out the backend of their roster.
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Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 9 DFS: Running Back Report Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and […]
Jahmyr Gibbs (29.90 fantasy points) was the highest-scoring running back in Week 8 in PPR formats, coming on the heels of another top-showing (11/68/1 with nine catches for 58 yards). Christian McCaffrey (29.80) and Gus Edwards (29.40) filled out the running back trifecta. Five other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Alvin Kamara (24.57) and Travis Etienne (23.97) averaged the most fantasy points per game in PPR formats over the past three weeks. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average over the first eight weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.64)
- Kenneth Walker (16.09)
- Zack Moss (15.65)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top-Tier Options
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)
The excellent opportunity continued in Week 8 for Kamara. He gained 110 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches on 21 touches against the Colts. The Saints gave him the ball 125 times over his first five starts, leading to 110 yards and 7.8 catches per game. Taysom Hill sniped three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks while also stealing 14 rushes for 81 yards.
Chicago ranks 27th in running back defense (25.54 FPPG), with most of their struggles coming over the first three games (34.50, 23.20, and 46.30 fantasy points). The Bears continue to play well vs. the run (193/630/4 – 3.3 yards per carry), but backs have 48 catches for 497 yards and five touchdowns on 61 targets.Â
Kamara holds his floor in most weeks due to his value in the passing game. His rising salary requires more than 32.00 fantasy points at DraftKings, but he can’t reach that level without at least one long play and a touchdown. New Orleans will get Jamaal Williams involved, and Hill has been stealing away his explosiveness. Playing well, and the Saints’ offense should score in this game.
Saquon Barkley, NYG (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600)
The Giants’ offense has been dismal in seven of the eight games, leading them averaging only 11.9 points per game. Over the last three weeks, Barkley has been a big part of New York’s game plan (81/298 with 19 catches for 46 yards and one touchdown on 91 touches). Daniel Jones returns this week, along with LT Andrew Thomas, breathing life into all offensive players for the Giants. Barkley posted one playable game (27.20 fantasy points) in Week 2.
Las Vegas fell to 29th in running back defense (27.34 FPPG) after struggling over the past three weeks (31.80, 40.80, and 38.50 fantasy points). The Raiders allow 4.5 yards per rush, with backs scoring 11 touchdowns. Over the past two games, Chicago and Detroit rushed for 395 yards with three touchdowns. Running backs have 42 catches for 267 yards and one score on 56 targets.
With Daniel Jones back in the starting lineup, Barkley will see…
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Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished […]
Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished second, thanks to his value in passing game (12/91). The fantasy market saw the first sign of explosiveness from Jahmyr Gibbs (27.60), lifting him to 26th in running back scoring. Gus Edwards (21.40) and Jonathan Taylor (21.40) also climbed the running back rankings.Â
Over the last three weeks, Travis Etienne (27.47 FPPG) has been the highest-scoring running back, followed by Alvin Kamara (21.80 FPPG). Here are the top five running backs after seven weeks in fantasy points per game:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.66)
- Raheem Mostert (20.93)
- Travis Etienne (19.71)
- Kenneth Walker (17.43)
- Kyren Williams (15.87)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Elite Tier Option
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,200)
After a downtick in snaps in Week 5 (73%) and Week 6 (58%), the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all 53 plays against Minnesota. His rushing yards had been short in three consecutive games (19/51/1, 11/43, and 15/45/1), with a step back in value in receiving stats (2/27, 3/9/1, and 3/51/1). McCaffrey has a touchdown in each game in 2023 (11 scores over seven starts). He’s averaging 21.6 touches per game.
Cincinnati is about league-average defending running backs (20.27 FPPG) despite allowing 5.0 yards per rush. The Titans had the most success (27/162/1 with four catches for 29 yards). Backs only have 20 catches for 141 yards on 28 targets due to a favorable schedule (CLE – 23/171/2, BAL – 27/269/0, LAR – 18/128/1, TEN – 22/220/0, ARI – 23/120/0, and SEA – 23/153/0).Â
Brock Purdy is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion. Over the first five games (all wins), the 49ers averaged 33.4 points (35.7 at home – 14 touchdowns over 32 possessions). San Francisco’s running backs already scored 17 touchdowns. That gives McCaffrey a much higher ceiling than all other backs in the NFL, along with a high floor. A two-game losing streak and some home-cooking points to the 49ers regaining their scoring in Week 8, led by Christian McCaffrey.
Second-Tier Options
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Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]
The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points.Â
Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)
In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.
The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.
Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)
Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.
Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).
With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.
Mid-Tier Options
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Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]
Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:
- Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
- Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
- De’Von Achane – 102.70
- Travis Etienne – 92.00
- Kenneth Walker – 73.60
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)
Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches.Â
Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.
With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…
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Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat […]
Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.
The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:
- Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
- Raheem Mostert (90.40)
- Kyren Williams (81.60)
- De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
- Kenneth Walker (73.60)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)
I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances).Â
Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with…
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Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running […]
Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report looks for the next huge game to insert into your daily lineups.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,700
Over the first three games, McCaffrey scored between 22.50 and 25.90 fantasy points in each matchup with PPR scoring. He extended his touchdown streak to 12 games but scored twice in only one contest. In addition, McCaffrey gained more than 100 yards in each of his starts (152, 116, and 119) while averaging 3.7 catches. Last season, he had 108 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches vs. the Cardinals while playing with Carolina. With San Fran against Arizona in other matchups, McCaffrey gained 185 yards with one score and 10 catches.
The Cardinals sit 25th defending running backs (75/325/1 with 15 catches for 82 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets). The Cowboys ran the ball well against them in Week 3 (33/185 – 5.6 yards per rush). Their pass rush (11 sacks) has been better than expected out of the gate, and Arizona played from the lead in all three of their games through the third quarter.Â
McCaffrey is an absolute beast on a path to being the best running back in the game in 2023. The 49ers will ride him hard when needed (100% of their snaps in Week 2) while resting him when playing from a big lead. His floor has been three times his salary, putting him a second touchdown away from 30.00 fantasy points. The second half could be in the hands of Elijah Mitchell on many plays, so McCaffrey will need to get his scoring and yards early in the game. He is rated as the top running back…
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Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre […]
A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre Swift (27.10). Six other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five back in scoring in PPR leagues after two games:
- Christian McCaffrey (48.40)
- Kyren Williams (22.70)
- Brian Robinson (42.50)
- Tony Pollard (42.10)
- Bijan Robinson (20.75)
There have already been three significant injuries to running backs (Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley), sending fantasy managers to an ultra-thin waiver wire to solve their injury woes.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report, WR Report, and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,400)
Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have played from the lead for about 150 minutes while never trailing in a game. They’ve struggled to run the ball in other matches (4.1 and 3.0 yards per rush) despite averaging 37 carries. Pollard has been on the field for 64% of their snaps in both contests, leading to 191 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches (42.10 fantasy points in PPR formats). He is well behind last year’s pace in yards per rush (3.6 – 5.2 in 2022) and yards per catch (5.4 – 9.5 in 2022). Pollard scored eight of his 12 touchdowns at home last season.Â
The Cardinals defended running back well over the first two games (44/149/1 – 3.4 yards per carry). They’ve allowed two receiving scores to backs, with minimal damage in catches (8) and receiving yards (46). Arizona finished 27th in running back defense (27.39 FPPG) in 2022.
Pollard had seven rushes inside the five-yard line and 12 inside the 10 yards. I didn’t like to see Rico Dowdle on the field near the goal line last week on one series. But Dowdle failed to reach paydirt in his two chances. Pollard’s 32 touches in Week 2 were career-high. His salary in the DFS market requires an impact game. That is something he achieved only once in 2022 (149 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch). I see a correct game coming in big plays, giving him a chance to be the top running back of the week.
Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)
The fantasy market got a taste of the potential in Week 2 vs. the Packers. Atlanta gave him 24 touches compared to 16 by Tyler Allgeier, leading to a wide edge in combined yards (172 to 48). His snap count rose from 63% to 72%. Robinson had 39 touches on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Two of his plays gained at least 20 yards.
His first road start comes in Detroit, matching him against the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions played well vs. the run over the first two games (23/90 and 25/82/2 – 3.6 yards per rush), with 37.8% of their yards allowed coming from…
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