NFL DFS

DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

October 25, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 15 29 22 26
Buffalo Bills 5 6 14 4 3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense 

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…

How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?

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Cooper Kupp - PreSeason Pro
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning […]

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning ticket on DraftKings three times over the first six games while also being viable in Week 5 (8/181/1). Adam Thielen came into last week with three consecutive visits to the daily winner circle (11/145/1, 7/76, and 11/107/1) in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, followed by another winnable day (11/115/1).

Unfortunately, he finished second through 10th in the final standings in the Week 6 Millionaire Maker. Cooper Kupp flashed in his first game back in action in Week 5 (8/112), upping that total last week (7/148/1). Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/124/1) was the best wideout in Week 6, helping a wise team builder win $1,000,000. Only four other wide receivers scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 6.

Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers by scoring average after six games:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.80)
  • Keenan Allen (24.99)
  • Stefon Diggs (23.33)
  • Justin Jefferson (22.02)
  • Adam Thielen (21.08)

Ja’Marr Chase (20.63), Puka Nacua (20.37), A.J. Brown (20.20), and D.J. Moore (20.03) are also averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points for the season. Cooper Kupp (23.80) also posted top-five wide receiver stats over his first two starts.

Also, before we get into the Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,700)

The daily games did their best to box DFS players from using Kupp in Week 7. His salary commands 38.00 fantasy points to pay off in DraftKings scoring, a game total he never reached in his epic 2021 season (37.30, 34.00, 37.60, and 34.70 fantasy points in his best four games). Last year, his best two outcomes in fantasy points came in Week 1 (31.80) and Week 2 (32.80). Each roster slot in a DFS lineup has a max value, so a 30+ fantasy game still creates an edge if the other outs a position don’t fix in the lineup box. Kupp was on the field for every play in Week 6.

The Steelers come into Week 7 sitting 29th in wide receiver defense (74/1024/6) with one disaster showing (23/290/2) against the Raiders and Davante Adams (13/172/2). Nico Collins (7/168/2) also posted an impact game. So far this season, Kupp has lined up in the slot for more than half of his plays, inviting a very winnable matchup vs. any Pittsburgh option in coverage. CB Patrick Peterson (16/238/4 on 28 targets per PFF) allowed big plays (14.9 yards per catch) and touchdowns (4). He can’t handle Kupp with one-on-one coverage.

Kupp has an elite floor, and the Rams’ offense has already produced many high-ranking games at running back and wide receiver over the first six weeks. The first stop in team building on Sunday starts with Kupp as 100 receiving yards and at least one score is a likely outcome. Ultimately, it’s about fitting the complementary piece behind him in a daily lineup.

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,000)

Diggs gained more than 100 yards receiving in four consecutive games (8/111, 6/120/3, 8/121/1, and 10/100) while also posting a top-tier showing in Week 1 (10/102/1). On the year, he averages 11 targets per game, putting him on pace to catch 138 passes for 1,757 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 targets (all career-highs). He played well in both games (7/92/1 and 7/104/1) vs. New England last season. In 2020, Diggs had one of the better weeks (9/145/3) of his career on the road against the Patriots. 

New England is 14th vs. wide receivers (74/864/10 on 110 targets) while playing A.J. Brown (7/79), DeVonta Smith (7/47/1), Tyreek Hill (5/40/1), Garrett Wilson (5/48), CeeDee Lamb (4/36/1), Chris Olave 92/12/1), and Davante Adams (2/29). CB J.C. Jackson blew coverage in Week 1 (3/99/1 on eight targets) vs. Tyreek Hill, something many other cornerbacks have done in 2023. He fell out of favor with the Chargers’ coaching staff, leading to the Patriots picking him up. Over his first two games with New England, he allowed three catches for 21 yards on 10 targets. His success with the Patriots earned him a massive payday from the Chargers.

The Bills need a statement game after losing to the Jaguars in London and lacking an offensive pulse vs. the low-ranking New York Giants defense. His resume with the Bills has been a high floor player (23 games over 55 starts with more than 20.00 fantasy points) while offering the occasional impact game (41.50, 30.20, 44.80, 30.80, and 36.00 fantasy points). Josh Allen looks for him often, but the percentages suggest Diggs…

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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Trevor Lawrence
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7

October 18, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7

Last week’s Thursday Night game was a disappointment. With just 27 points scored, the Chiefs/Broncos snooze fest set the template for UNDERS going 11-3 in Week 7. Consequently, Week 7 opens with an intra-conference battle that opened at a lowly 42.5 and dropped. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 breaks down the Saints/Jaguars game from a fantasy, DFS, and sports betting lens.

Doug Pederson’s Jaguars have won three straight after an embarrassing home loss to the Houston Texans. That included a pair of victories in London. Jacksonville is 2-0 on the road. However, few teams have as strong of a home-field advantage as the New Orleans Saints.

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Speaking of the Saints, Dennis Allen’s squad is 3-3 after they too were defeated by Houston. However, that loss came on the road and was much more competitive. New Orleans has scored 20 or fewer points in five of their six games, and looking at the depressed total, it could be another low-scoring Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 7 game to handicap.

Subsequently, the Saints are mere 1-point favorites, with an implied game score of 21-19.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 12 15 20 10
New Orleans Saints 17 15 23 26 24

Unsurprisingly, Pederson’s Jaguars squad has been better offensively. Jacksonville is averaging 23.7 points per game, which is just behind the Chiefs. The Jags also hold an edge at every skill position, making them the more fantasy-friendly roster.

However, Jacksonville’s offensive line has struggled. The Jaguars have allowed Trevor Lawrence to be sacked 16 times and face too many pressures. Lawrence has only 2.46 seconds to throw the ball, which is the second-lowest time in football. That has resulted in him ranking 26th with a -1.2 completion rate over expectation.

Meanwhile, the Saints rank 6th in total defense. Derek Carr has been serviceable under center. However, Carr has thrown only five touchdown passes and the Saints rank 24th in scoring. Carr also has the fewest rushing yards among any NFL quarterback that has started multiple games.

Scoring will be at a premium.

Jacksonville Offense 

As mentioned above, some of Trevor Lawrence‘s…

How will Thursday’s Jaguars vs. Saints game go?

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Jordan Addison
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 14, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 […]

Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

D.J. Moore had a sensational game (8/230/3 on 10 targets) against the Commanders in Week 5, but he was outdone by Ja’Marr Chase (15/192/3 on 19 targets). Both players moved into the top 10 in wide receiver scoring in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill (8/181/1) was the only other wideout to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Eight wide receivers finish with 20.00 to 28.00 fantasy points. DeAndre Hopkins posted his best game (8/140), but he ranks 37th after his five starts with the Titans. Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers after five games:

  • Tyreek Hill (132.50)
  • Keenan Allen (103.45 – four games)
  • Stefon Diggs (120.00)
  • Puka Nacu (115.60)
  • Justin Jefferson (109.80)

Also, before we get into the Week 6 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800)

Hill has been on the winning Millionaire Maker ticket at DraftKings in Week 1 (11/215/2), Week 3 (9/157/1), and Week 5 (8/181/1). He delivered lower results (5/40/1 and 3/58) in his other two matchups vs. division opponents. He is on pace to catch 122 passes for 2,213 yards and 17 touches, which would be career-highs in all categories. His rhythm last season over the first eight games and his start in 2023 leads to his best outputs coming every other week. Hill already has four completions of 40 yards or more.

The Panthers rank seventh in wide receiver defense (49/642/4 on 74 targets). Justin Jefferson (6/85/2) posted the best game against them, while DK Metcalf (6/112) is the only wideout to gain more than 100 receiving yards. Carolina’s success vs. wide receiver is somewhat masked by their poor run defense, leading to quarterbacks averaging only 27.6 passes. CB Donte Jackson has risk defending the long field (11 catches allowed for 202 yards and one touchdown on 17 targets ~ 18.1 yards per catch per PFF), and CB CJ Henderson (13/173/1) allows a high catch rate (81.3).

Hill brings a double jeopardy skill set for defenses to defend. His quickness is elite, setting up many easy catches over the short areas of the field. In addition, he can beat a secondary over the top in a blink of an eye. So far this year, I haven’t had Hill enough or used him in the correct team build. He is the player with the highest ceiling in many weeks, meaning a ride without him can lead to losing tickets more often than not. Rinse and Repeat.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,300)

The success of Chase in Week 5 (15/192/3 on 19 targets) was the first game in his career where he paired volume of chances with a long scoring play. In his two impact games (8/201/1 and 11/266/3) in his rookie season, he had 10 and 12 targets in those matchups while gaining 20 yards or more on eight plays. His only two catches of 20 yards or more this season went for 43 and 63 yards. Chase is now on pace to catch 150 passes for 1,618 yards and 10 touchdowns. His one strike is his yards per catch (10.8 – 12.0 in 2022 and 18.0 in 2021).

Seattle has the worst defense in the league against…

 

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Raheem Mostert
DFS

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

October 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]

Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report

Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:

  • Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
  • Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
  • De’Von Achane – 102.70
  • Travis Etienne – 92.00
  • Kenneth Walker – 73.60

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)

Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches. 

Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.

With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…

 

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