NFL DFS

DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9

November 1, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 Last week’s game was better than advertised, as the Bucs hung with the Bills. However, the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 offers up a pair of underperforming offenses that will be hard-pressed to […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9

Last week’s game was better than advertised, as the Bucs hung with the Bills. However, the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 offers up a pair of underperforming offenses that will be hard-pressed to be as entertaining.

Of course, that doesn’t mean this game has no headlines. Will Levis gets his first road start after an historic NFL debut. But, the Titans face a tough task traveling on short rest to take on the Steelers.

As for the Steelers, they face their own quarterback questions with Kenny Pickett’s health.

Both offenses have struggled in 2023, so we have an unusually low total of 36.5 points.

The Steelers are favored by just 2.5 points. That line tells us that Vegas thinks the Titans are the better team on a neutral field. But, are they?

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Tennessee Titans 27 30 13 14 23
Pittsburgh Steelers 32 25 28 27 29

It has been a struggle for the Titans and Steelers to score points all season. Pittsburgh enters Week 9 with the league’s worst offense. The Steelers also rank last in the league with a 26.3% first-down rate and enter this game with only six touchdown passes in eight games.

Meanwhile, the Titans have the fewest pass attempts in football. Only the Jets and Browns have fewer passing yards than Tennessee’s 1,442. Tennessee is an old-school offense that churns out rushing yards, controls the clock, and is a top-5 unit in converting fourth downs.

Also, Tennessee has the edge defensively. The Titans boast the NFL’s 13th-ranked stop unit. They rank 13th against the run and in points allowed. Plus, the Titans are top-10 in sack rate.

Pittsburgh’s defense had dropped off. The Steelers have the fifth-worst run defense through eight weeks. That’s a mismatch against a Titans offense that wants to run the ball 30-plus times.

This game opened with the Steelers favored by 3.5 and a total of 37.5. However, both of those numbers have dipped by one point.

Tennessee Titans Offense 

Will Levis made headlines in his first NFL start, throwing for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns. Levis made some excellent throws. However, he also was lucky and the Falcons

How will Thursday’s Titans vs. Steelers game go?

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A.J. Brown
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The top three scoring wide receivers (Jordan Addison – 31.30, A.J. Brown – 29.70, and Tyreek Hill – 25.80) from Week 7 didn’t play on Sunday’s main slate of games. Josh Downs (23.50) finished […]

Week 8 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The top three scoring wide receivers (Jordan Addison – 31.30, A.J. Brown – 29.70, and Tyreek Hill – 25.80) from Week 7 didn’t play on Sunday’s main slate of games. Josh Downs (23.50) finished fourth in scoring in PPR formats, followed by Puka Nacua (23.40) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (23.20). Mike Evans (20.20) and Christian Kirk (20.00) were the only other two wideouts to score 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average after seven weeks in 2023:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.66)
  • Stefon Diggs (22.54)
  • Keenan Allen (22.41)
  • A.J. Brown (21.56)
  • Adam Thielen (21.08)

Also, before we get into the Week 8 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Elite Options

Tyreek Hill, MIA (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,500)

Hill has a touchdown in three consecutive starts, giving him a second streak at this level in 2023. His seven scores lead the wide receiver position. Over the past three games (8/181/1, 6/163/1, and 11/88/1), he had a floor of 25.80 fantasy points in PPR scoring while averaging 11.3 targets. Hill has 23 catches for 501 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets in his three home matchups. His lowest two outputs (5/40/1 and 3/58) came on the road vs. division opponents (NE and BUF). He has 41 catches for 611 yards and seven touchdowns on 62 targets over seven career games against the Patriots but less value in his time with Miami (8/94, 4/55, and 5/40/1). 

New England comes off a big win vs. the Bills, where they held Buffalo’s wide receivers to 12 catches for 114 yards and one touchdown on 23 targets. The Patriots moved to 14th in wide receiver defense (86/978/6 on 133 targets). They’ve yet to allow more than 90 yards to a wideout while facing multiple top-tier players – A.J. Brown (7/79), DeVonta Smith (7/47/1), Tyreek Hill – 5/40/1, Jaylen Waddle (4/86), Garrett Wilson (5/48), CeeDee Lamb (4/36/1), Chris Olave (2/12/1), Davante Adams (2/29), and Stefon Diggs (6/58/1). CB J.C. Jackson faced Hill in Week 1 (3/99/1 on eight targets per PFF) while playing for the Chargers. Last week, in his second start for New England, he allowed seven catches for 61 yards and one score on 10 targets to the Bills’ wideouts.

Hill is on a record pace (129/2,191/17), averaging 10.6 targets and 17.0 yards per catch. He comes into this week with a hip issue, but Miami expects him to play. His ticket continues to come in the DFS market, making him a rotational elite player in the daily games each week. His salary requires an explosive game, something Hill has done once this year (11/215/2), along with three elite showings (30.70, 32.10, and 28.30) in fantasy points. His biggest negative is that Tua Tagovailoa has never posted an elite game vs. the Patriots despite having a 5-0 record.

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $9,000/FD – $9,100)

After two productive games (8/118 and 7/148/1), Matthew Stafford struggled to get Kupp the ball against the Steelers. He caught only two of his seven targets for 29 yards, giving him his lowest output for an entire game since Week 6 (3/11 on nine targets) in 2020. The Rams had Kupp on the field for all their plays for the second straight week. In 2022, he had seven catches for 125 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets against the Cowboys. 

Dallas has…

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Tony Pollard
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

October 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished […]

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished second, thanks to his value in passing game (12/91). The fantasy market saw the first sign of explosiveness from Jahmyr Gibbs (27.60), lifting him to 26th in running back scoring. Gus Edwards (21.40) and Jonathan Taylor (21.40) also climbed the running back rankings. 

Over the last three weeks, Travis Etienne (27.47 FPPG) has been the highest-scoring running back, followed by Alvin Kamara (21.80 FPPG). Here are the top five running backs after seven weeks in fantasy points per game:

  • Christian McCaffrey (24.66)
  • Raheem Mostert (20.93)
  • Travis Etienne (19.71)
  • Kenneth Walker (17.43)
  • Kyren Williams (15.87)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Elite Tier Option

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,200)

After a downtick in snaps in Week 5 (73%) and Week 6 (58%), the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all 53 plays against Minnesota. His rushing yards had been short in three consecutive games (19/51/1, 11/43, and 15/45/1), with a step back in value in receiving stats (2/27, 3/9/1, and 3/51/1). McCaffrey has a touchdown in each game in 2023 (11 scores over seven starts). He’s averaging 21.6 touches per game.

Cincinnati is about league-average defending running backs (20.27 FPPG) despite allowing 5.0 yards per rush. The Titans had the most success (27/162/1 with four catches for 29 yards). Backs only have 20 catches for 141 yards on 28 targets due to a favorable schedule (CLE – 23/171/2, BAL – 27/269/0, LAR – 18/128/1, TEN – 22/220/0, ARI – 23/120/0, and SEA – 23/153/0). 

Brock Purdy is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion. Over the first five games (all wins), the 49ers averaged 33.4 points (35.7 at home – 14 touchdowns over 32 possessions). San Francisco’s running backs already scored 17 touchdowns. That gives McCaffrey a much higher ceiling than all other backs in the NFL, along with a high floor. A two-game losing streak and some home-cooking points to the 49ers regaining their scoring in Week 8, led by Christian McCaffrey.

 

 

Second-Tier Options

 

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Lamar Jackson
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
  • Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
  • Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

  • Josh Allen (183.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (180.45)
  • Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
  • Lamar Jackson (170.80)
  • Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

 

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DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

October 25, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 15 29 22 26
Buffalo Bills 5 6 14 4 3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense 

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…

How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?

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Cooper Kupp - PreSeason Pro
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning […]

Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Three of the top four wide receivers in Week 6 ranked highly for the season or played well over the previous week or two. Tyreek Hill (28.30 fantasy points) has been on the winning ticket on DraftKings three times over the first six games while also being viable in Week 5 (8/181/1). Adam Thielen came into last week with three consecutive visits to the daily winner circle (11/145/1, 7/76, and 11/107/1) in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, followed by another winnable day (11/115/1).

Unfortunately, he finished second through 10th in the final standings in the Week 6 Millionaire Maker. Cooper Kupp flashed in his first game back in action in Week 5 (8/112), upping that total last week (7/148/1). Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/124/1) was the best wideout in Week 6, helping a wise team builder win $1,000,000. Only four other wide receivers scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in Week 6.

Here’s a look at the top five wide receivers by scoring average after six games:

  • Tyreek Hill (26.80)
  • Keenan Allen (24.99)
  • Stefon Diggs (23.33)
  • Justin Jefferson (22.02)
  • Adam Thielen (21.08)

Ja’Marr Chase (20.63), Puka Nacua (20.37), A.J. Brown (20.20), and D.J. Moore (20.03) are also averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points for the season. Cooper Kupp (23.80) also posted top-five wide receiver stats over his first two starts.

Also, before we get into the Week 7 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,700)

The daily games did their best to box DFS players from using Kupp in Week 7. His salary commands 38.00 fantasy points to pay off in DraftKings scoring, a game total he never reached in his epic 2021 season (37.30, 34.00, 37.60, and 34.70 fantasy points in his best four games). Last year, his best two outcomes in fantasy points came in Week 1 (31.80) and Week 2 (32.80). Each roster slot in a DFS lineup has a max value, so a 30+ fantasy game still creates an edge if the other outs a position don’t fix in the lineup box. Kupp was on the field for every play in Week 6.

The Steelers come into Week 7 sitting 29th in wide receiver defense (74/1024/6) with one disaster showing (23/290/2) against the Raiders and Davante Adams (13/172/2). Nico Collins (7/168/2) also posted an impact game. So far this season, Kupp has lined up in the slot for more than half of his plays, inviting a very winnable matchup vs. any Pittsburgh option in coverage. CB Patrick Peterson (16/238/4 on 28 targets per PFF) allowed big plays (14.9 yards per catch) and touchdowns (4). He can’t handle Kupp with one-on-one coverage.

Kupp has an elite floor, and the Rams’ offense has already produced many high-ranking games at running back and wide receiver over the first six weeks. The first stop in team building on Sunday starts with Kupp as 100 receiving yards and at least one score is a likely outcome. Ultimately, it’s about fitting the complementary piece behind him in a daily lineup.

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,000)

Diggs gained more than 100 yards receiving in four consecutive games (8/111, 6/120/3, 8/121/1, and 10/100) while also posting a top-tier showing in Week 1 (10/102/1). On the year, he averages 11 targets per game, putting him on pace to catch 138 passes for 1,757 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 targets (all career-highs). He played well in both games (7/92/1 and 7/104/1) vs. New England last season. In 2020, Diggs had one of the better weeks (9/145/3) of his career on the road against the Patriots. 

New England is 14th vs. wide receivers (74/864/10 on 110 targets) while playing A.J. Brown (7/79), DeVonta Smith (7/47/1), Tyreek Hill (5/40/1), Garrett Wilson (5/48), CeeDee Lamb (4/36/1), Chris Olave 92/12/1), and Davante Adams (2/29). CB J.C. Jackson blew coverage in Week 1 (3/99/1 on eight targets) vs. Tyreek Hill, something many other cornerbacks have done in 2023. He fell out of favor with the Chargers’ coaching staff, leading to the Patriots picking him up. Over his first two games with New England, he allowed three catches for 21 yards on 10 targets. His success with the Patriots earned him a massive payday from the Chargers.

The Bills need a statement game after losing to the Jaguars in London and lacking an offensive pulse vs. the low-ranking New York Giants defense. His resume with the Bills has been a high floor player (23 games over 55 starts with more than 20.00 fantasy points) while offering the occasional impact game (41.50, 30.20, 44.80, 30.80, and 36.00 fantasy points). Josh Allen looks for him often, but the percentages suggest Diggs…

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DFS

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

October 20, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week […]

Week 7 DFS: Running Back Report

The top production from the running back position continues to flow from the Dolphins’ backfield. Raheem Mostert (132 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches) was the top fantasy running back in Week 6 (34.20). Only three other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points – Travis Etienne (23.30), Kyren Williams (21.80), and Breece Hall (20.30). The running back pool had more of a steady feel last week as 21 players finished with 10.00 to 19.50 fantasy points. 

Only Christian McCaffrey (24.83) and Rahaam Mostert (23.40) are the only running backs averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points over the first six weeks. Travis Etienne (19.22), Kyren Williams (18.52), and Kenneth Walker (18.30) round out the top five backs in scoring average in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Austin Ekeler, LAC (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,400)

In Week 1, Ekeler posted a winning game (164 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 20 touches) despite only being on the field for 48% of the Chargers’ snaps due to a hamstring injury. After missing three games, he struggled to make an impact against the Cowboys (62 yards with four catches on 18 chances). Ekeler finished with 68% of LA’s snaps. In 2022, he gained 194 combined yards with one touchdown and 11 catches in two games against Kansas City.

The Chiefs allowed fewer than 18.00 fantasy points to running backs over their last five games, moving them to fifth in defense vs. backs (15.43 FPPG). Running backs gain 4.5 yards per rush while scoring only one touchdown with 26 catches for 152 yards and one score on 30 targets. They’ve faced four teams (CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) with questionable play from their lead running back.

Last season, the Chargers’ running backs had 140 catches for 911 yards and seven touchdowns on 179 targets. The change at offensive coordinator has led to a shortfall in this area (14/117/0 on 20 targets) over their first five games. Ekeler offers value on all three downs, but he isn’t in form to support his salary. More of a gamble in Week 7 based on the play of the Chargers’ offense and their matchup.

Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000)

Touchdowns (9) have been challenging for the Raiders’ offense over their first six games. Their offense has turned the ball over 12 times while creating small running lanes (3.0 yards per rush) for their star running back. They’ve yet to rush for more than 100 yards in a game while having a reasonable floor in catches (35) and receiving yards (279). Jacobs averages 22.0 touches a game.

Chicago ranks 28th defending running backs (27.53 FPPG). Despite the appearance of weakness, the Bears played better vs. backs over their last two matchups (WAS – 10/29 with eight catches for 97 yards and MIN – 22/46 with five catches for 35 yards). They allow 3.5 yards per rush, with more risk in the passing game (36/366/4 on 45 targets).

With Jimmy Garoppolo downgraded to doubtful and Chicago playing with a backup quarterback, Vegas set the game total at 37.5. Jacobs should be active again this week, with a chance at a possible score, but his ceiling is limited to the Raiders’ ability to move the ball. His opportunity gives him a chance, but Las Vegas must play a lot better offensively for the lead running back to shine.

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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Justin Herbert
DFS

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups. 

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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