NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 1, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Saints – 3 Over/Under: 41.5 After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). […]

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Saints – 3

Over/Under: 41.5

After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.

New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside.
The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.

Derrick Henry

Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats).
His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary.

DeAndre Hopkins…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

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NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 1, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Vikings – 6 Over/Under: 45.5 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has […]

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

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NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 1, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bengals – 2 Over/Under: 47.5 The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 […]

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

Joe Mixon

Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS break down of Week 1…

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NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 1, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Falcons – 3 Over/Under: 42 Last year, the […]

Def vs WR Matchups Report

December 30, 2022 Scott Atkins

This Fantasy Football tool shows you how well (or how poorly) each pass defense is performing against each position this NFL season.

RECEIVING YARDS ALLOWED BY POSITION

This new featured tool displays how each defense performs against their opponent’s receiving yardage gained by position.

So for example, if you see a team is ranked 1st vs. WR #1, that defense is currently the best at limiting their opponent’s WR #1 yardage compared to other teams. Or if you see a team is ranked 32nd against WR #2, that defense is the worst against WR #2’s or more accurately, the defense is allowing the most yards to WR #2’s compared to the other teams in the league. This a great tool to find and exploit useful matchups. Don’t forget to check out all the positions as well (WR #1, WR #2, Other WRs, TE & RB).

It’s playoff time. You can’t afford to make a single mistake with your lineup! To read the rest, become a Fulltime Fantasy Member and get access to Waiver Wire/FAAB, Snap Counts Report, WR Matchups, Customized Weekly Rankings, and Private WDIS help on Sunday Mornings. USE CYBER70 for 70% off our MONTHLY package for these next two months!
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17

December 28, 2022 Jody Smith

We’ve reached the penultimate week of the 2022 NFL season. Week 17 also happens to be the final Thursday Night Football matchup. Our FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need […]

We’ve reached the penultimate week of the 2022 NFL season. Week 17 also happens to be the final Thursday Night Football matchup. Our FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 17 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday night’s contest.

2022’s Thursday Night Football finale appears to be a mismatch. The reeling Tennessee Titans have lost five straight including an embarrassing home loss four days ago to the lowly Houston Texans.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys just knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles and are riding high as 10-point road favorites. The over/under is 39.5.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Dallas Cowboys	8	9	7	11	3
Tennessee Titans	30	30	12	21	27

Breaking down the disparity in offensive firepower explains why the Cowboys are double-digit favorites. Mike McCarthy’s squad is a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball. The potent Dallas offense can run or pass with any team and ranks third in scoring.

Meanwhile…

How will tonight’s game go?

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16

December 21, 2022 Jody Smith

As the fantasy football playoffs roll on, the NFL regular season marches toward a conclusion. Both of these teams have a shot at making the NFL’s postseason, which is a nice surprise. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week […]

As the fantasy football playoffs roll on, the NFL regular season marches toward a conclusion. Both of these teams have a shot at making the NFL’s postseason, which is a nice surprise. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday night’s contest.

The 6-8 Jaguars just upset the Dallas Cowboys and have a ton of momentum. Doug Pederson’s squad has won 3-of-4 and concludes the season with two winnable AFC South contests.

Meanwhile, the Jets have dropped three straight and 4-of-5. For New York to keep their fading postseason dreams alive, Week 16 is a must-win proposition.

New York opened as slight 1-point home favorites. This tells us Vegas thinks the Jaguars are the better team. However, wind, cold, and rain are expected to play a role in Thursday’s action.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Jacksonville Jaguars	6	10	10	6	12
New York Jets	19	15	24	20	23

Doug Pederson has restored balance to the Jaguars. Plus, Pederson has unlocked the potential in sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s offense is top-10 through the air and via the rush. But, the Jags’ 27th-ranked defense has struggled to stop the opposition’s passing attack.

However, it remains to be seen if the Jets can capitalize on that weakness. Struggling second-year QB Zach Wilson gets the starting nod

How will tonight’s game go?

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15

December 14, 2022 Jody Smith

The fantasy playoffs have arrived. Up first, we get an NFC West grudge match between the 49ers and the Seahawks. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for […]

The fantasy playoffs have arrived. Up first, we get an NFC West grudge match between the 49ers and the Seahawks. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 15 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday night’s contest.

San Francisco (9-4) enters this duel riding a 6-game winning streak. The Niners have scored 33-plus points in three of their last four and haven’t surrendered more than 17 since Week 7. It’s no surprise to see the 49ers as road favorites.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are reeling. Seattle (7-6) has lost 3-of-4 including two straight as favorites at Lumen Field. For Seattle to keep their NFC playoff hopes alive, this NFC West showdown is a must-win.

San Francisco is favored by 3.5 and the over/under is 43.5

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
San Francisco 49ers	9	13	9	8	8
Seattle Seahawks	13	9	21	4	6

These two teams are eerily similar on offense. Pete Carrol’s squad likes to try to establish the run to take shots downfield. Conversely, the 49ers are a balanced attack that can be potent in play-action spots.

The biggest difference…

How will tonight’s game go?

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14

December 7, 2022 Jody Smith

It’s hard to believe we’re already up to Week 14. It may be fantasy playoff season but this week’s game features two teams unlikely to be participating in the postseason. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 breaks […]

It’s hard to believe we’re already up to Week 14. It may be fantasy playoff season but this week’s game features two teams unlikely to be participating in the postseason. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday night’s contest.

If either of these teams makes the postseason, it will be Las Vegas. The streaky Raiders have won three straight to crawl back into the playoff picture. Barely. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champs are dead in the water and have all but thrown in the towel on a lost season.

The 3-9 Rams are 6-point home dogs to a 5-7 Raiders squad. This contest opened at 43 but has climbed to 44.5. Let’s break down this week’s streaming action.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Las Vegas Raiders	10	9	11	5	9
Los Angeles Rams	31	25	30	32	29

Things have gone from bad to worse for Sean McVay’s Rams. The offense struggled with an injured Matthew Stafford under center. However, it has regressed significantly since Stafford went on IR. Only the Broncos have been more incompetent offensively, and the Rams are lost six straight.

How will tonight’s game go?

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 13

November 30, 2022 Jody Smith

Thanksgiving is now behind us. However, the fantasy playoffs are now just a week or two away. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 13 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday’s AFC […]

Thanksgiving is now behind us. However, the fantasy playoffs are now just a week or two away. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 13 breaks down the fantasy and betting trends you need to know for Thursday’s AFC East grudge match.

In a rare coincidence, both of these teams played last Thursday. Buffalo beat Detroit in their second consecutive game at Ford Field. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost in Minnesota in last week’s TNF game.

This is the first of two meetings between these two AFC East contenders. The Bills head into Foxborough as 4-point favorites. And, the over/under sits at 43.5 points.

Matchup

How will tonight’s game go?

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