Matthew Stafford

puka nacua
Season Long – All Sports

2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview

July 26, 2024 Jody Smith

2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn’t hurt that the Ram’s […]

2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview

The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn’t hurt that the Ram’s offense finished in the top 12 in passing yards, rushing yards, and points per game.

One of the biggest reasons the Rams doubled their win total was Matthew Stafford’s health. Stafford (3,965/24/11) managed to play in 15 contests after playing in just nine the season before. Only Lamar Jackson completed more “Hero” throws among quarterbacks who attempt at least 275 passes.

Last year during the draft, the Rams selected Puka Nacua (105/1486/6) in the fifth round, and all he did was put together the most outstanding season a rookie wide receiver has ever had. Nacua accounted for a 32.9% air yards share and a target of 26.8% (11th-most) last season as Cooper Kupp missed five games. He also averaged 2.75 yards per route run in 2023, the ninth most among receivers. It’s hard to imagine Nacua repeating those numbers, especially with a healthy Kupp, but he is still worthy of being a WR1 this season.

Despite Kupp only playing in 12 contests, the former triple-crown winner still finished the 2023 fantasy season as the WR39 and was 25th in fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Father time remains undefeated; maybe it was the injuries, or perhaps it’s part of turning 30, but Kupp saw a career low in his yards per route run (1.77) last season, something worth monitoring.

If Puka Nacua was the biggest surprise for fantasy managers, what do we call Kyren Williams? Williams (228/1,144/12) finished as the RB5 in PPR formats with 255 fantasy points despite missing four games. Only Christian McCafferys 24.5 fantasy points per contest were more than Williams 21.3.

Williams was a bell-cow for the Rams, accounting for nearly 48% of all the touches in the run game. One reason for concern is that the club did draft Blake Corum, who had also proven to be a workhorse over his last two seasons at Michigan with more than 500 carries and 2,700 rushing yards.

Tyler Higbee (47/497/2) isn’t going to move the needle much in fantasy. Sure, he’ll give you some TE1-type weeks this season, but the volume is not going to be there to make him much more than a TE2 on your roster.

Quarterbacks

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD – QUALITY BACKUP

Now 36, Stafford has settled in as a reliable streaming option but is unlikely to revert back to his high-volume role from yesteryear. Last season, the Rams were top-10 in points and offense but Stafford was firmly outside the top-12 fantasy ranks. The emergence of WR Puka Nacua helped Stafford rebound from a down 2022 showing. Nacua and Cooper Kupp give the Rams a formidable duo and help ensure that Stafford’s floor remains safe. He offers nothing as a runner and tends to turn the ball over a tad much, but Stafford can be a reliable source of points as a bye-week fill-in or as a QB2 in Superflex leagues….

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DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16

December 20, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16 Following last week’s blowout between two sub-.500 teams, Week 16 offers a pairing of NFC playoff contenders. The Rams and Saints enter this game at 7-7 and in the thick of the playoff picture. […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16

Following last week’s blowout between two sub-.500 teams, Week 16 offers a pairing of NFC playoff contenders. The Rams and Saints enter this game at 7-7 and in the thick of the playoff picture. FullTime Fantasy’s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16 breaks down what is a must-win game for both teams.

The visiting Saints have won two straight and are tied for the NFC South lead. At +42, New Orleans has the fourth-best points differential in the conference. However, they must contend with traveling on a short week to face an LA squad that has won three consecutive games at home.

Additionally, Los Angeles has averaged 33 points per game in their last four. This Rams offense is now healthy and will pose problems for a New Orleans defense that has struggled when facing teams that are capable of moving the ball up and down the field.

The game opened with the Rams being favored by 4.5 points with a total of 44.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
New Orleans Saints 14 14 19 18 12
Los Angeles Rams 8 11 11 7 9

 

On paper, these two teams are more evenly matched than it seems. However, the Saints have an edge defensively. At least they did until recently. The Saints pass rush has slowed and the team has dipped to 24th in run defense.

Meanwhile, the Rams have had issues defending the run. However, the return of Kryen Williams has had a significant impact on the team’s offensive resurgence. Also, in the last five games, Matthew Stafford is the overall fantasy QB5.

For this game, the Saints are looking at their own significant addition with ace No. 1 wideout Chris Olave returning after a 1-game absence.

This is the first away game for New Orleans since dropping a 24-15 game to the Falcons in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Rams have been thriving at home and have not lost to the Saints as hosts since 2009.

How will Thursday’s Saints vs. Rams game go?

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Matt Stafford
Season Long – All Sports

Week 5 NFL Player Props

October 5, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, […]

Week 5 NFL Player Props

 

Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, since we tripled up on the Justin Fields over, our 3-4 Week 4 record doesn’t tell the full story; We actually profited cash for a third consecutive week. Just about a quarter of the way through the regular season, we are now 13-8 (+6.9 units). 

After a surprising first few weeks to the season where studs weren’t performing and there were some unfamiliar names leading certain position groups, things are finally beginning to shake out as one would expect. Justin Herbert has been the top quarterback, Christian McCaffrey has been the top running back, Justin Jefferson has been the top wideout, and T.J. Hockenson has been the top tight end (Travis Kelce missed the season opener but is averaging more points per game than Hock). The cream always rises to the top.

Fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props and continue our trend of profitable NFL weekends.

 

Josh Allen OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)

After a disappointing season-opening performance against the New York Jets in which Allen turned the ball over four times in an upset loss, Buffalo’s signal-caller has turned it around and has been the QB1 over the last three weeks. Over that span, Allen has racked up 812 passing yards (270.7 per game) while going 72-for-94 (76.6% completion percentage) and throwing eight touchdowns and one interception.

He has risen to the top of the MVP race in large part due to his dominant performance in the Bills’ Week 4 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins in which he tallied 320 passing yards and four touchdowns, while also running one into the end zone. Allen has eclipsed this line in two of his previous three outings and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense.

Also, the Bills are averaging 6.1 yards per play this season, which bodes well for Allen in this London-based contest. Allen doesn’t have a particularly good history against the Jaguars. But one of his previous two games came against them back in 2018 when they had an elite defense. Back in 2021, he surpassed this line against Jacksonville. Look for Allen to continue his MVP campaign…

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

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Geno Smith
DFS

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Seahawks – 6 Over/Under: 46.0 The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into […]

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Seahawks – 6

Over/Under: 46.0

The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into Week 1. Matthew Stafford is a proven quarterback, but his secondary receiving options are below the league average. Cam Akers played well late last season, giving the fantasy market hope that he will build on his success this year. I see risk in the secondary for Los Angeles, pointing to Seattle throwing the ball well if DE Aaron Donald can’t shorten the passing window.

The Seahawks bring a high foundation of the receiving corps, highlighted by DK Metcalf and the exciting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett has an excellent resume despite being on the wrong side of 30. Seattle lines two exciting young running backs – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The biggest question for this team is their defense, which is a win for overall scoring by their offense.


Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season, over nine starts, Stafford delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but he had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). 
  • In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
  • With Cooper Kupp trending toward a sit in Week 1, Stafford’s projection will be lowered in the next update.
  • The Seahawks ranked 16th in quarterback defense, with one team scoring over 30.00 fantasy points.
  • Seattle should score in this game, so a chaser game gives Stafford a chance only if Kupp is a full go.

Cam Akers

  • Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). 
  • From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. 
  • The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final three matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards), with the latter coming against Seattle.
  • The Seahawks finished 28th in running defense (27.72 FPPG), with five teams scoring more than 35.00 fantasy points.
  • There has been talk out of Rams’ camp that Kyren Williams would see more time this season on passing downs. Akers has the tools to rush for 100 yards with a score, putting in range…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

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matthew stafford cooper kupp
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook

August 2, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Los Angeles Rams Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Matthew Stafford

Over the five seasons before landing in Los Angeles, Stafford had a league-average feel at quarterback. He tossed 119 touchdowns and 46 interceptions over 72 games while averaging 265.7 passing yards. 

Stafford matched his career-high in touchdowns (41) in 2021 with success in his completion rate (67.2). The Rams gave him the receiver talent to challenge defenses deep in the passing game, leading to a league-high 18 completions over 40 yards. He finished with over 300 yards passing in nine of his 20 matchups (including playoffs) and nine games with three scores or more in the regular season. Stafford offered no fantasy help in the run game (32/43).

Last season over nine starts, he delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but Stafford had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021). In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.

Fantasy Outlook: The Rams have the mystique of being a top offensive team since the arrival of Sean McVay, but I sense 2021 will be the outlier season for Stafford. His offensive line is loaded with question marks. His top receiver comes off a significant injury, and Los Angeles lacks top-level receiving depth behind Cooper Kupp. I see a league-average passer with only matchup value if this offense plays above my outlook in 2023. Stafford will find a way to pass for 4,000 yards with only about 25 scores if Kupp regains his previous form.

Stetson Bennett

Over the past two seasons at Georgia, Bennett passed for 6,986 yards with 56 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his 29 starts. He averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt while adding some help in the run game (113/464/11). Last year, he gained 4,332 combined yards with 37 touchdowns. Bennett comes off two national championships with a 28-1 record in 2021 and 2022.

Fantasy Outlook:  The Rams will give him every opportunity to win their backup job in his rookie season. 

Other Options: Brett Rypien, Dresser Winn

— Running Backs —


The only bright spot from the Rams’ running backs last year was their 15 touchdowns. They had further regression in their rushing attempts (356), rushing yards (1,493), yards per rush (4.2), catches (49), targets (63), and receiving touchdowns (0). Their backs accounted for 14.1% of the team’s completions and 10% of their receiving yards. Their running backs gained 1,854 combined yards with 15 scores and 49 catches (19.0 FPPG) in PPR formats.

Cam Akers

Over the first 11 weeks in 2020, Akers offered emptiness in the fantasy market leading to 228 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 53 touches while missing two games with a rib injury. However, he flashed in Week 12 (9/84/1), creating a starting job down the stretch. From Week 13 through the second round of the playoffs, the Rams gave Akers 23.8 touches per start over six games. He gained 708 combined yards with three scores and 11 catches, highlighted by two matchups (194 combined yards with two catches and 176 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches). He missed Week 16 with an ankle issue.

Unfortunately, an Achilles injury before the 2021 season led to only eight touches in Week 18 for 13 yards with three catches. The Rams tried to get Akers going in the postseason, but he struggled in the run game (54/151/0 – 2.8 yards per carry) while picking up five catches for 62 yards. He also battled a shoulder issue in the playoffs.

Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough). From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches. The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final there matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles spoke highly about Akers this spring, suggesting he’ll have an active role in their offense. His finish to 2022 does point to upside this year, but the Rams still don’t throw enough passes to running backs, and their offensive line won’t be an edge. Akers projects as a backend RB2 while ranking 23rd at running back in the high-stakes market. My quick math points to 275+ touches for 1,200 combined yards with six to eight scores and…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE RAMS IN 2023?

 

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Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

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Season Long – All Sports

2019 Fantasy Football: Detroit Lions Expanded Team Outlook

August 17, 2019 Shawn Childs

In this Detroit Lions Expanded Team Outlook, Shawn Childs provides meticulous & in-depth Fantasy Football breakdowns of the entire franchise.

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