Fantasy Baseball

Season Long – All Sports

2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview

February 25, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

In their second season as the Guardians, Cleveland slipped to third in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. They’ve missed the postseason three times over the past five years. Their last trip to the World Series came in 2016. The Indians won the World Series in 1920 and 1948. Their streak without a championship stands at 75 years. Our 2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview predicts if they’ll turn it around this season.

They finished 27th in runs (662), last in home runs (124), and 28th in RBIs (622). Cleveland stole 151 bases in 187 attempts (80.7%). Their pitching staff ranked 10th in ERA (3.96). The Guardians had 37 saves, 24 losses, and 47 saves from their relievers, with a 3.79 ERA (9th) and 588 strikeouts over 586.2 innings.

In the offseason, Cleveland moved on from SP Lucas Giolito, SP Zach Plesac, SP Noah Syndergaard, RP Reynaldo Lopez, OF Kole Calhoun, and C Mike Zunino. They signed C Austin Hedges and P Ben Lively. The Guardians acquired OF Estevan Florial and RP Scott Barlow in two minor deals. 

Their starting rotation has three developing arms – Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Triston McKenzie, each offering ace upside. Shane Bieber has plenty of experience, and Logan Allen proved to be a serviceable backend arm last year. The ninth inning should be in good hands with the right arm of CL Emmanuel Clase.

The foundation of their offense lacks impact power and star players. Cleveland must find one outfielder with a more rounded skill set to push OF Myles Straw into a bench pool. I also question if OF Steven Kwan offers championship talent. The development of C Bo Naylor, 1B Kyle Manzardo, and OF Estevan Florial are the keys to moving up the AL Central standings in 2024.

Starting Lineup

OF Steven Kwan

In 2021, between AA and AAA, Kwan added more length to his hits (12 home runs over 296 at-bats) while continuing to hit for average (.328). In addition, he took 36 walks with a low strikeout rate (9.0). 

Cleveland gave Kwan 460 at-bats in his rookie season (2022) in the leadoff position, and he responded with a .328 batting average, 74 runs, five home runs, 44 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases. Over this span, his on-base percentage (.385) fell short of his college career (.431). He finished with a higher walk rate (9.7) than strikeout rate (9.4). 

Last year, Kwan only offered fantasy value in runs (93) and steals (21). His only month of success came in July (.330/16/3/13/2 over 106 at-bats). He didn’t hit a home run over his final 213 at-bats.

He continues to have a weak average hit rate (1.380), highlighted by his low ranking in exit velocity (86.0 – 365th) and hard-hit rate (18.8 – last). His barrel rate (1.1) had to be the weakest in baseball. 

Fantasy Outlook: Kwan finished the year ranked 87th by FPGscore (-0.92). His three-category skill set (BA, runs, and SBs) makes him a challenging foundation piece to a fantasy team in roto formats. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, he has an ADP of 204 as the 121st hitter drafted. Based on his price point, Kwan appears to be a value for some team structures. I’ll sit this dance out. He should have a rebound in batting average while needing more production in power and steals to help fantasy teams.

2B Andres Gimenez…

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 Chicago White Sox Preview

February 25, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Chicago White Sox Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]

2024 Chicago White Sox Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Chicago White Sox Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

After winning the AL Central in 2021, the White Sox had a sharp decline in play over the past two years. They finished 61-101 last season while giving up 200 more runs than they allowed. From 1994 to 2019, Chicago made the postseason only three times, with a World Series win in 2005. Our 2024 Chicago White Sox Preview analyzes if the Chi Sox can turn around those struggles.

The White Sox finished 29th in runs (641), 20th in home runs (171), and 29th in RBIs (617). They had the worst on-base percentage (.291) in baseball. Their baserunners stole 86 bases on 108 attempts. Chicago posted a 4.87 ERA (26th), with the same ranking for their bullpen (24 wins, 38 losses, 28 saves, 4.88 ERA, and 597 strikeouts over 591.2 innings).

In the offseason, the White Sox signed C Martin Maldonado, SS Paul DeJong, SP Erick Fedde, SP Chris Flexen, and RP Tim Hill. They traded for 2B Braden Shewmake, SS Nicky Lopez, SP Michael Soroka, and SP Jared Shuster in their deal with the Braves. Chicago parted ways with RP Aaron Bummer. The White Sox didn’t resign C Yasmani Grandal, 2B Elvis Andrews, SS Tim Anderson, SP Mike Clevinger, and RP Liam Hendriks.

The foundation of their offense has upside in five slots in their lineup – 1B Andrew Vaughn, 3B Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and OF Oscar Colas, but the trusted window is running out on a couple of these players. 

There has been talk of Chicago moving SP Dylan Cease, leaving their starting rotation in rebuild mode. RP Gregory Santos has the first shot at saves. 

Starting Lineup

OF Andrew Benintendi

When at his best in 2017 and 2018 with the Red Sox, Benintendi hit .280 with 187 runs, 36 home runs, 177 RBIs, and 41 stolen bases. After a decent season in 2021 (.276/63/17/73/8 over 493 at-bats), he has been a losing investment in the fantasy market. 

His average hit rate (1.361) now ranks among the lightest hitters in baseball, and Benintendi has a sharp decline in his contacting batting average (.311 – .365 in 2022) in 2023. Surprisingly, he hit well with runners on base (RBI rate – 18), but his RBI chances (286) declined for the second consecutive year despite a three-year high in at-bats.

Last year, Benintendi had the same empty success against righties (.261 with two home runs over 440 at-bats) and lefties (.262 with three home runs over 122 at-bats). He never scored more than 15 runs a month or drove in higher than 10 runs. 

His strikeout rate (14.3) was the best of his career while posting a league-average walk rate (8.4). Benintendi finished with a new bottom in his exit velocity (86.6 – 88.3 in his career), with one of the worst hard-hit rates (27.0 – 38.7 in 2022 and 34.9 in his career) in baseball. In his best seasons, he barreled 31, 33, and 36 balls (only 14 last year).

Fantasy Outlook: His ADP (497) in mid-January in the NFBC puts Benintendi in the free-agent pool in all formats. Last year, the White Sox gave him 484 at-bats in the first or second slot in the batting order. As bad as his profile looks, he may be serviceable in some counting categories with a slight rebound in power. Benintendi signed a five-year contract in December of 2022, so pay attention to his bat in spring training with an eye on his exit velocity and power…

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2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview

February 24, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]

2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

The Blue Jays have been one of the better teams in the AL East over the past four seasons, leading to three trips to the postseason with a .557 winning percentage. Their last division title came in 2015. After winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, Toronto missed the playoffs for 21 consecutive years. 

They ranked fourth in ERA (3.78). The Blue Jays’ bullpen posted a 3.68 ERA (8th) with 33 wins, 24 losses, 51 saves, and 606 strikeouts over 557.0 innings. Toronto underachieved expectations in runs (746 – 14th), home runs (188 – 17th), and RBIs (705 – 17th). Their base stealers finished with 99 steals over 133 attempts (75.0%).

Toronto parted ways with 1B Brandon Belt, 3B Matt Chapman, 2B Whit Merrifield, and SP Hyun Jin Ryu. They signed P Jordan Hicks and IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa. 

The combination of SS Bo Bichette, 1B Vlad Guerrero, and OF Daulton Varsho had a step back in production, leaving the Blue Jays with no difference-maker bats in their starting lineup. Toronto should sign another bat or two by the start of the season.

SP Kevin Gausman, SP Jose Berrios, SP Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi gave the Blue Jays 742 winning innings, but their expected ace (Alek Manoah) was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. CL Jordan Romano handled himself well in the ninth inning.

Here is our 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview.

Starting Lineup

OF George Springer

Springer ranked 30th in FPGscore (3.99) for hitters in 2022 despite missing 29 games with forearm, ankle, elbow, and knee injuries. Coming into last year, he missed 113 games over the previous two seasons. 

In 2023, Springer had his best opportunity (613 at-bats) since 2016. Unfortunately, he finished with a step back in runs (87), home runs (21), and RBIs (72), leading to him sliding to 54th in FPGscore (1.39) despite a career-high in steals (20). His average hit rate (1.570) was well below his previous career path. Springer came to the plate with 405 runners on base but a poor RBI rate (13). His walk rate (8.8) remains an asset while regressing for four consecutive years. Springer continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).

His bat lost momentum vs. lefties (.242/20/4/14 over 124 at-bats). He struggled in April (.225/14/3/105 over 111 at-bats) and July (.191/10/2/7/1 over 89 at-bats). Springer had his lowest hard-hit (39.9) and exit velocity (88.3) of his career. His flyball rate (35.4) is trending lower, along with his HR/FB rate (12.1) and launch angle (12.0).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 34, his best days appear to be behind him. The Blue Jays have him under contract for the next two years. To have a rebound season, Springer needs the bats behind him in the starting lineup to play much better. His ADP (123) in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in mid-January ranks him as the 71st hitter. I can’t trust his speed, but the rest of his profile has a chance to beat the league average with a rebound in play…

To finish reading Shawn’s EXTENSIVE 2024 FANTASY BASEBALL TEAM PREVIEWS…

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Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy: Pitchers

March 22, 2023 Shawn Childs

As I broke down in my fantasy baseball auction overview, auction leagues offer an enhanced strategy and fun element that drafts just can’t match. Following up on my approach for hitters, this Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy: Pitchers will give you […]

Shawn Childs is a 7-figure lifetime winner in high-stakes fantasy sports. His analytical and thoughtful approach will have you well-prepared on draft day.  He’s breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. Not all content is created equal. Get yours from a proven winner, Shawn Childs.

To get an idea of what you’ll be diving into, you can read either of the two unlocked outlooks here:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES – BOSTON RED SOX

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