Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past […]

Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report

Only two tight ends (Travis Kelce – 9/124 and Dalton Schultz – 4/61/1) scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in Week 7. The Falcons’ tight ends continue to produce winning stats over the past two weeks (Kyle Pitts – 7/87 and 4/43/1 ~ Jonnu Smith – 6/67 and 4/36/1), pushing them to the top 12 in tight end scoring for the season. Ten tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.00 fantasy points.

Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after six weeks:

Travis Kelce (88.60)
Sam LaPorta (79.50)
T.J. Hockenson (77.40)
Mark Andrews (71.40)
Cole Kmet (67.10)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 7 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 7 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,500)

Despite missing one game and playing through some injuries, Kelce regains the top-scoring seat at tight end heading into Week 7. He has a floor of nine targets on four starts while gaining momentum over his last two matchups (10/67/1 and 9/124). The Chiefs only had him on the field for 59% and 69% of their plays over this span (66.4% for the season – 79.8% in 2022). Last year, Kelce had one impact game (6/115/3) against the Chargers on the road (5/51 at home), with the same theme in 2021 (10/191/2 @ LAC – 7/104 in KC).

Los Angeles ranks 10th in tight end defense (19/187/1 on 29 targets) while facing four opponents with low-ranking options (MIA – 3/44, TEN – 4/35, LV – 1/11, and DAL – 1/15). The Chargers did have issues covering T.J. Hockenson (8/78) and the Vikings’ tight ends (10/82/1 on 13 targets) in Week 3.

Kelce hasn’t delivered a game that was three times his current salary at DraftKings in 2023 (24.20, 33.50, and 35.50 last season). The latter two outcomes are needed to fill his salary bucket in Week 7. His path isn’t far off from an 8/100/2 game, so keep an open mind about playing him in the DFS market.

Mid-Tier Options

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)

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Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 19, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa […]

Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, no quarterback scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats. Dak Prescott led the way with 27.60 fantasy points, followed by Jared Goff (25.95), Jalen Hurts (25.70), and Tua Tagovailoa (25.10). Desmond Ridder (22.15) was the best value player in the DFS market. Four other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 22.50 fantasy points.

Surprisingly, Justin Herbert is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback (26.03 FPPG), scoring between 22.35 and 26.05 fantasy points in four of his five starts, with one impact game (33.35). Josh Allen (25.82 FPPG), Jalen Hurts (25.40 FPPG), and Tua Tagovailoa (24.23 FPPG) round out the top four. Ten other quarterbacks are averaging between 20.00 and 23.00 fantasy points.

The top underachievers are Trevor Lawrence (18.11), Dak Prescott (16.88), Geno Smith (16.61), and Joe Burrow (14.37).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 7 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Despite a favorable schedule (DET, JAC, CHI, NYJ, MIN, and DEN) to start the season, the Chiefs scored only 15 offensive touchdowns on their 63 possessions (23.8%) compared to 59 TDs in 2022 over their 180 chances (32.8%). Mahomes passed for more than 300 yards in three matchups (305/2, 303/3, and 306/1) while attempting 41 passes in each of those starts. His wideouts delivered only two games with more than 60 yards receiving (Skyy Moore – 3/70/1 and Rashee Rice – 4/72). In addition, there have been only three games with over four catches by wide receivers (Kadarius Toney – 5/35 and 5/26 and Rashee Rice – 5/59). Over two games in 2022 vs. the Chargers, Mahomes passed for 564 yards and five touchdowns.

Los Angeles comes into Week 7 with the worst quarterback defense (26.09 FPPG) in the league, with two offenses having a high level of success (MIA – 466/4 and MIN – 367/4). They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt while delivering 21 sacks over the last four weeks. The Chargers’ defense lost the time of possession battle in three of their previous four matchups.

Mahomes rates as the top quarterback in Week 7. But he doesn’t deserve it based on the play of the Chiefs’ offense. He’ll throw many passes, creating plenty of completions and long drives. Unfortunately, the weakness in LA’s defense (secondary vs. wide receivers – 73,1,107/7 ~ 15.2 yards per catch) isn’t an area of strength for Kansas City (70/857/4 on 112 targets ~ 12.2 yards per catch). On the positive side, Rashee Rice looks close to becoming the second option in the passing game. And Travis Kelce is rounding into form. A Mahomes/Rice/Kelce stack costs $21,000 at DraftKings, requiring 84.00 fantasy points to pay off. I can’t dismiss Mahomes as this game has the highest game total (49) on the main slate on Sunday. And his matchup could lead to a spike in points scored.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

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Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – […]

Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position was an area of strength for fantasy teams in Week 5. Six players scored more than 19.00 fantasy points (George Kittle – 3/67/3, Dallas Goedert – 8/117/1, Travis Kelce – 10/67/1, Logan Thomas – 9/77/1, Sam LaPorta – 3/47/2, and Dalton Schultz – 7/65/1). All outcomes propelled each player to the top 13 in tight end scoring. Here’s a look at the five scoring tight ends after five games in PPR formats:

Sam LaPorta (71.90)
Travis Kelce (67.20)
T.J. Hockenson (66.40)
Cole Kmet (64.20)
Mark Andrews (60.50)

Also, here are the top plays this week via the Week 6 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 6 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,600/FD – $6,700)

Over the past two weeks, Hockenson only had seven catches for 75 yards with 11 targets. His last score came in his best game (7/66/2) in Week 2. He continues to gain short yards per catch (8.6) over his 15 games with the Vikings. Last year, Hockenson only had one catch for 16 yards on one target vs. the Bears.

Chicago ranks 24th in tight end fantasy defense (34/282/2 on 40 targets), with Kansas City (8/78/1) and Washington (12/105/1) having the best success. Surprisingly, the Bears had the best defense against tight ends (56/596/8 on 82 targets) in 2022.

In his career, Hockenson has 29 catches for 298 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets vs. the Bears. The loss of Justin Jefferson invites more chances and increased defensive attention. He doesn’t project well in Week 6 for his salary. A high-scoring game invites more chances, keeping in the mix at the top end of the tight end pool.

Sam LaPorta, DET (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

LaPorta has been the best tight end in the league over the first five weeks, highlighted by his success in two games (8/84/1 and 3/47/3). He’s caught 80.6% of…

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Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 12, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in […]

Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report

For the third week in a row, four quarterbacks scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Justin Fields (35.80) was the best player in Week 5, lifting him to sixth in quarterback scoring (119.25 fantasy points). Josh Allen (32.35), Jalen Hurts (31.35), and Sam Howell (30.30) filled out the quarterback superfecta last week. In addition, Jared Goff (29.90), Desmond Ridder (29.45), and Brock Purdy (28.60) played at a high level.

Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after five games based on scoring average:

Josh Allen (138.35)
Justin Herbert (107.80 – four games)
Jalen Hurts (126.70)
Kirk Cousins (122.10)
Tua Tagovailoa (120.80).

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 6 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

Allen had a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, but his running output (20/120/3) is well behind his previous two years (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). His two bright spots after five games are his completion rate (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.0), both career-best. Over the last two weeks, he gained 710 combined yards with eight touchdowns.

The Giants are league-average defending quarterbacks (19.10 FPPG), with two teams (SF – 310/2 and MIA – 308/2) passing for more than 300 yards. New York allowed at least three touchdowns in all five games. Offenses scored 18 touchdowns and nine field goals on 52 possessions (30.6 points per game). Their defense will give up rushing touchdowns (9). Field position due to turnovers (8) has favored their opponents.

Buffalo is a 15-point favorite, suggesting more run by the Bills, especially in the second half. Allen will get his touchdowns but needs 33.00 fantasy points to…

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Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report

October 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, Cole Kmet (7/85/2) and Mark Andrews (5/80/2) delivered impact games at tight end, moving them to third (49.00) and fifth (48.00) in tight end fantasy scoring in PPR formats. 13 players tight […]

Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, Cole Kmet (7/85/2) and Mark Andrews (5/80/2) delivered impact games at tight end, moving them to third (49.00) and fifth (48.00) in tight end fantasy scoring in PPR formats. Thirteen players tight ends scored between 10.00 and 15.50 fantasy points. On the year, there have been only two other outcomes (Week 2 ~ T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2 and Week 3 ~ Sam LaPorta – 8/84/1) higher than 20.00 fantasy points.

Here are the seven tight ends averaging more than 10.00 fantasy points in 2023:

T.J. Hockenson (56.30)
Sam LaPorta (52.20)
Cole Kmet (49.00)
Evan Engram (48.20)
Mark Andrews (48.00 – one missed game)
Hunter Henry (46.60)
Travis Kelce (44.50 – one missed game)

Also, here are the top plays this week via the Week 5 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 4 DFS: QB Report and RB Report.

Top Tier Options

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,789)

At DraftKings and FanDuel, Kelce continued to have a tier to himself in salary while not producing any games (4/26/1, 7/69/1, and 6/60) to support his cost. The Chiefs had him on the field for a season-high 79% of their snaps in Week 4 (64% and 61% over the previous two games). Kelce continues to gain short yards per catch (9.1 – 12.2 in 2022) while averaging 8.7 targets (8.9 in 2022). When at his best last year, he gained more than 100 yards in five starts with a floor of seven catches in nine of his 20 games played.

Minnesota played well against tight ends in three matchups (TB – 2/19, PHI – 6/22, and CAR – 1/7), but the Chargers (8/34/2) beat them for two scores by their second tight end (Donald Parham – 2/4/2). Overall, tight ends are gaining 4.8 yards per catch on five targets per game. The Vikings finished 11th in tight end defense (65/796/7 – 12.3 yards per catch).

Patrick Mahomes hasn’t hit his stride, partly due to his best weapon not being in form early in the year due to a knee issue. The Vikings’ defense will be on the field for many plays this week, giving Kelce his first chance in 2023 to deliver more than 100 yards receiving and double-digit catches. With a touchdown added to the equation, he’ll be in range to support his high price point. I sense a big week, but it will take some maneuvering to finish off the rest of the starting lineup, especially if paired with Mahomes…

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Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 5, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to […]

Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, four quarterbacks scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (Josh Allen – 39.70, Justin Fields – 33.25, Anthony Richardson – 32.60, and Lamar Jackson – 31.00). All four QBs have a running component to their skill set. Twelve quarterbacks posted more than 30.00 fantasy points in 2023, with Tua Tagovailoa (33.80 and 31.45) leading the way.

Over four weeks of action, here are the top five scoring quarterbacks this season:

Justin Herbert – 107.80
Josh Allen – 106.00
Kirk Cousins – 99.40
Tua Tagovailoa – 98.80
Lamar Jackson – 97.70

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

Based on his high salary in the DFS market, Mahomes has yet to deliver a winning day over four weeks. He’s averaging two touchdowns, with his best outcome coming in Week 3 (300/3) against the Bears. Only one of his 92 completions gained at least 40 yards (13 in 2022), leading to a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt. His top receiver (Travis Kelce) has been limited to 9.1 yards per catch (12.2 in his career). Rashee Rice (13/140/1) is their leading wideout despite being on the field for 36.9% of the Chiefs’ plays.

Minnesota ranks 24th defending quarterbacks (22.36 FPPG), with one disaster showing vs. the Chargers (465/4). Their wide receivers finished with 32 catches for 415 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets. The Eagles’ wideouts only had eight catches for 160 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets, but they gained 20 yards per catch.

The game total for this matchup is 52, the highest on the main slate on Sunday. Mahomes comes off a down game (203 passing yards with one score and two interceptions) while averaging 35.8 passes (38.1 in 2022 and 38.7 in 2021). His matchup bodes well for an uptick game, especially if Minnesota scores more than 25 points.

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Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report

September 29, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report Heading into Week 4, there have been 25 touchdowns scored by tight ends. Donald Parham leads the way with three scores despite only having six catches for 32 on seven targets on the season. […]

Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report

Heading into Week 4, there have been 25 touchdowns scored by tight ends. Donald Parham leads the way with three scores despite only having six catches for 32 on seven targets on the season. He’s been on the field for about 50% of the Chargers’ snaps. T.J. Hockenson leads tight ends in targets (28), followed by Sam LaPorta (22).

In Week 3, only LaPorta (22.40) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, thanks to a 45-yard touchdown. Nine tight ends finished between 10.90 and 19.90 fantasy points. Only two tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in a week.

Here are the top five tight ends after three weeks:

T.J. Hockenson (51.90)
Sam LaPorta (42.60)
Hunter Henry (37.50)
Evan Engram (35.30)
Travis Kelce (32.50)

These are the only tight ends averaging more than 10.00 fantasy points per week.

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 4 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 4 DFS: QB Report and RB Report.

Top Tier Options

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,800)

After three games, Kelce averaged 16.25 FPPG in PPR formats in PPR formats over his two starts. Last year, his season average was 18.88 fantasy points. That puts him about 14% behind his pace in 2022. The Chiefs had Kelce on the field for 61% of their plays last week due to a blowout game, down from 64% in Week 2. On the positive side, his light workload did make him look swifter versus the Bears. Kelce has done more of his work close to the line of scrimmage (8.6 yards per catch – 12.2 in 2022 and 12.7 in his career before this season). Patrick Mahomes looked his way 8.5 times a game in his two starts.

The Jets fell to 30th in tight end defense (16.97 FPPG) after getting beat by New England’s tight ends in Week 3 (5/108/1). Most of the damage came on a broken play touchdown (58 yards) to the Patriots’ third tight end (Pharaoh Brown – 2/71/1). Tight ends have 16 catches for 169 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets against New York.

Kelce remains an edge at tight end due to his upside potential. But it does come with a price in the DFS market due to his high salary. He must score 30.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to be viable. That’s an outcome Kelce reached twice in 2022 (33.50 and 35.50). I don’t see the Jets pushing the envelope on the scoreboard, costing Kelce the follow-through needed to be an edge in the daily games in Week 4.

George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,300)

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Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 28, 2023 Jody Smith

Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback […]

Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report

Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback in the DFS market was Andy Dalton (27.15). Fifteen QBs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, three less than in Week 2 (only 10 in Week 1). Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after three games:

Kirk Cousins (86.45)
Justin Herbert (81.75)
Tua Tagovailoa (81.00)
Patrick Mahomes (76.45)
Jordan Love (75.15)

Joe Burrow (34.65 fantasy points – 30th) remains the weak link of the top-tier quarterbacks drafted in 2023. C.J. Stroud (63.80) sits 12th, one notch above Mac Jones (60.70). Four quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points each week – Cousins, Herbert, Mahomes, and Love. Daniel Jones has two bust weeks (7.50 and 6.35) vs. the Cowboys and 49ers while booming in Week 2 (34.95) vs. the Cardinals.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)

Three weeks into the 2023 DFS season, Allen is still looking for his first impact game. He’s been the best fantasy quarterback over the past three years, scoring at least 30.00 fantasy points seven times in 2022 (twice vs. the Dolphins – 31.70 and 39.90). The Bills’ offense has a much better structure in the run game over the last two weeks due to the play of James Cook (32/221 with six catches for 50 yards). Surprisingly, Allen is gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 7.6 in 2022, which was also an issue in 2021 (6.8).

Miami’s defense had massive issues with the Chargers’ run game in Week 1 (40/233/3). Over the next two weeks, they cleaned up this problem (25/88 and 20/69). But New England and Denver haven’t run the ball well in 2023. In addition, Allen’s right arm forces the Dolphins to defend the whole field. The Broncos did have three completions of 25 yards or more in Week 3. Miami has eight sacks with increased pressure on the quarterback this season.

The over/under for this game is 53.5. Also, the echo in my head from a friend of mine is that this game total usually falls on the underside…or was it the over? Either way, Allen has the “due feeling,” and his recent resume vs. the Dolphins suggests four times his salary (or more than 32.00 fantasy points) is well within reach. In addition, the Miami should push the issue on the scoreboard.

Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)

After a slow passing start in Week 1 (229/1) against Miami, Herbert took advantage of his last two favorable matchups…

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Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 21, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score […]

Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report

In four-point passing touchdown formats, Daniel Jones (34.95 fantasy points) was the best quarterback in the land in Week 2. Kirk Cousins (33.20) and Russell Wilson (31.00) were the only other two options to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. Fifteen quarterbacks scored between 21.50 to 28.50 fantasy points, compared to nine in Week 1.

Here are the top five quarterbacks two weeks into the season:

Kirk Cousins (56.10)
Tua Tagovailoa (49.55)
Justin Herbert (48.40)
Patrick Mahomes (48.05)
Russell Wilson (47.95)

Joe Burrow (22.70 fantasy points – 32nd) is the biggest underachiever so far in 2023.

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,200)

The lack of identity at wide receiver does hurt his explosiveness, at least out of the gate. Kadarius Toney leads the team in targets (10), but he only has 49 yards receiving. Justin Watson (5/107 on nine targets) has been a surprise, and he leads the team in receiving yards. Travis Kelce (4/26/1) didn’t have the same bounce in his step in Week 2 while appearing to be favoring his knee at the end of last week’s game. On the positive side, Mahomes continues to produce fantasy points.

The Bears’ defense allowed eight touchdowns and three field goals over the first two matchups while allowing 65 points. They only have one sack, with quarterbacks (Jordan Love – 257/3 and Baker Mayfield – 334/1) gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Chicago has played better than expected vs. the run (66/212/2 – 3.2 yards per carry). Wide receivers (21/348/3 on 35 targets) have a low catch rate (60.0%) but average 16.6 yards per catch.

Two weeks into the season, Kansas City only has four touchdowns, averaging 18.5 points per game. Mahomes looks poised to post a high-level game, and his wide receiving corps remains cheap in the DFS market. Unfortunately, he must score 33.00 fantasy points at DraftKings (28.00 at FanDuel) to be in the winning equation. His over/under in passing yards (295.5) at Underdog appears too low based on my projections (312/3), especially if Mahomes hits on one long touchdown. The key to his ceiling is Justin Fields leading the Bears to at least 20 points.

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Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]

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