This article is designed to give a quick overview of my favorites pitchers, hitters and teams with a dark Horse arm (low ownership pitcher with high upside).
For a more detailed article take a look at Steve Renners Dongers Club.
Verlander has been dominant this year and as of late posting 30 or more DK points in 5 of his last 7 games. In that time frame he is averaging 7.1 innings and 9 Ks per game. Tonight is an away game in a hitters friendly park against a the Reds who have a 24% K rate and a .227 average against RHP on the year. He most likely will give a bomb or 2 to one of the lefties, but he should still dominate this team going 7 innings 2 ERs and 10 Ks.
On the year Woodruff has been pretty good striking out 90 batters over 74.1 innings and posting a 3.87 ERA and over the past 5 games he has been excellent with the exception of one. In that time-frame Woodruff has gone 7 innings or more in 3 of the 5 going 8 in 2 games with double digit Ks in 2 of those games. He has been dominant vs RHHs this year holding them to .211 average with a 29% K rate and a minimal .6 HRs/9 and not too bad vs LHHs with a .262 average, 1.2 HRs/9 and a 28.5% K rate. The Padres have a lot of power in the lineup, but they also strike out at a league high 26.5% vs RHP with a .241 average. Woodruff has done a good job limiting the righties, which is the bulk of the Padres lineup, so I see him going 7 innings with 2 ERs (HR to Renfroe) and 8 Ks.
Flaherty is pitching at home tonight where he pitches well with a 2.35 ERA. On the year he has held RHHs to a .210 average, .9 HRs/9 a 32 % K rate and limits HC. The Marlins are a RH heavy team that strikes out at a 24% clip against RHP. Good spot tonight for Flaherty and looking at 6 innings 7Ks and 2 ERs.
With risk comes great reward…….Ok people like to stack against Bailey and for good reason he can get blown up, but he has put up some solid games this year as well. Tonight, he faces a Mariners team that has a few bats missing and over the past 30 days have been mediocre with a .246 average and 25 % K rate. The current lineup is hitting with a .289 wOBA and 28% K rate vs RHP and they dont hit the splitter well which Bailey throws close to 30% of the time. Bailey has done a good job limiting lefties this year to a .220 average and just above 1 HR/9 with a 23% K rate. The Mariners should roll out 5-6 lefties tonight, which is good news for Bailey. I know he wont pitch a clean game, but I do think he pitches well enough to pay off his salary with close to no ownership. Looking at 6 innings 2 ERs and 7 Ks.
vs Antonio Senzatela- allows a .433 wOBA, .353 average and 2 HRs/9 to LHHs this year
Roof is listed as open today at Chase Field which will help the hitters. The DBacks are my favorite stack tonight.
*Peralta, Escobar and Marte all have over a .330 wOBA and .220 ISO vs RHP this year and have been on fire.
* Walker and Jones both have over a .350 wOBA and .220 ISO vs RHP.
CORE: Peralta, Marte & Escobar with either Jones or Walker as the 4th. Walker has shown more power this year and both are sneaky plays.
VALUE: Locastro & Kelly (C)
vs Gabriel Ynoa and the Os pen – allows a .417 wOBA, .355 average to RHHs and 2HRs/9 to both sides of the plate with a FB rate of 47% to LHHs. Os pen over the last 30 days 21 HRs (1.9 HRs/9), 6.12 ERA.
*Chapman, Davis & Olson all have over a .300 wOBA and .200 ISO vs RHP.
CORE: Chapman, Davis, Olson
VALUE: Phegley (quitely crushing RHP), Grossman
Brewers face a rookie LHP that has a 5 ERA in the minors.
CORE: Yelich, Grandal, Mouse
VALUE: Perez, Braun
Betts is under 5K on DK and gets an elite matchup tonight vs Pineda who has struggled vs RHHs this year allowing a .359 wOBA , 2HRs/9, 49% HC and 45% FB rate. Over the past 14 days Betts has posted a 51 % FB rate along with 44% HC rate which puts him in a nice spot tonight. He has done well in the past vs Pineda hitting 2 HRs and 2 doubles over 23 at bats with a .304 average. This is a good spot for the Red Sox RHHs so playing Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez along with Betts is a solid stack. Betts, Bogaerts and Martinez are all hitting over .300 at Target Field
Alvarez has a lot of power smashing 23 HRs in 56 games in the minors this year and already 4 in only 7 games in the big leagues so far. Tonight he faces a pitcher who has struggled vs LHHs allowing a .401 wOBA, .308 average, 2.5 HRs/9, 48% FB rate and a 48% HC rate. Excellent spot for the young lefty in a hitters park tonight.
Baez and the Cubs face Ivan Nova who has been terrible vs both LH and RHHs his year and can’t strike out hitters. With over .350 wOBA and .220 iso he is in an excellent spot tonight at home. Stack with Rizzo, Schwarber and Carlos Gonzalez.
JD Davis– crushing RHP with a .406 wOBA and .224 ISO. 2 for 3 vs Teheran with a HR.
Hernan Perez- facing a rookie LHP .
Jacoby Jones– hitting well vs RHP and Keller has allowed a .543 wOBA and .308 ISO to RHHs this year in limited innings. Still a great spot for Jones.