FFWC ADP Series
QB1 | QB2 | Starting RBs | Backup RBs | Starting WRs | Backup WRs | TEs
The 13th QB drafted this year has an ADP in the 11th round. There are multiple QBs drafted after the 10th round that I believe have a chance to finish with starting value in the season-long Fantasy games.
By cheating the QB, a Fantasy owner can gain added depth at RB, WR, and TE especially if selected after the 12th round when the player pool at the skill positions start to dry out. It comes down to identifying the key player at all positions. If you see strength at RB or WR after round eight, it makes sense to push back the QB position. The depth at QB in 2018 has multiple options capable of breaking through to the top 12.
Here’s a look at the ADPs from the last ten drafts in the FFWC:
Patrick Mahomes comes with sexy hype in 2018. He has one of the best pass catching TEs in the game plus a WR1 with big play and scoring ability. The RB position will catch many passes as well. Sammy Watkins is the player that could push him to an elite level. There’s a lot to like here, but no proven resume pushes him to the QB2 level despite possibly have a top ten opportunity this season.
Fantasy owners may not feel comfortable with Jared Goff as a top 12 QB in 2018, but he sure looked the part last year. The Rams’ offense is on the rise with strength at WR. The TE position has a chance to be improved, and Todd Gurley will be drafted as top RB in 2018. His division opponents have lost some luster on defense, which is a plus for his value in six games. Excellent QB2 with matchup value in multiple games in 2018.
Philip Rivers is the veteran QB that falls into the steady category. The drop down in his top passing catching TE does hurt his upside in TDs and yards with Hunter Henry out for the season. Keenan Allen is an emerging star at WR plus I have mad love for Mike Williams in 2018. Melvin Gordon will be active in the passing game from the running back position. Only a back QB2 with a chance to be better than expected.
The luster of Marcus Mariota left the building after a subpar in 2017. He has plus game management skills with added value in his legs, but Mariota needs to make a step forward in his passing value. The change in coaching should be a positive especially if their new offensive coordinator can replicate some of his success created with the Rams last year. Marcus has a potential breakout WR1 in Corey Davis with a viable option at WR2 and TE. His passing weapons aren’t elite while Tennessee should be more of a balanced offense in 2018. Top five QB talent only if he can check all three scoring boxes this season (TDs, passing yards, and rushing yards). Sneaky QB2 that may develop into a week-to-week starter.
Matt Ryan had the best season of his career in 2016, but the change in play calling and offensive coordinator last year led to a disappointing season. Julio Jones is an elite WR while needing to find a way to be more productive in TDs. Ryan has pass-catching talent at RB plus an upside TE who lacks opportunity. The key to Matt regaining his top 10 Fantasy value would be an impactful rookie season by Calvin Ridley. With an ADP well after the 12th, I view Ryan as a buying opportunity as a QB2 with QB1 upside.
Last season the Raiders’ offense was a mess leading to bad seasons by Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. Carr tends to be a dink and dunk type QB while the Raiders would like to have success running the ball in the red zone. Oakland added two new options at WR (Martavis Bryant and Jody Nelson) with each player having some downside risk (Bryant – suspension and Nelson – age). I believe in Jon Gruden as a head coach giving the Raiders a chance to be much improved offensively in 2018. Even with the ifs and buts, I only buy Derek at a discount until he proves he can make big plays in the passing game.
Dak Prescott is a great game manager with some value in the running game. His lack of a TE and a true WR1 or WR2 would keep me far away as even a backup QBs. I like his talent, and he has a great offensive line. Overall, I don’t see enough plusses to target him on my Fantasy teams unless the price point is free.
The Bengals’ offensive line was brutal in 2017, which was a big part of a failed season by Andy Dalton. He still has a top WR1 with pass-catching talent at RB, but a question mark at TE added to a bet on the come John Ross at WR puts Dalton in the life raft mode as a backup QB. May surprise this season or Cinci may look to replace him late in the season.
Jameis Winston has the talent to break through to be a top ten QB, but a three-game suspension depresses his value in 2018. He likes to throw to the TE, and Tampa has two viable options. Mike Evans has elite scoring ability while the Bucs do have depth an upside behind Evans at WR. His value comes down to who you have as you lead QB.
Last year Alex Smith had the best season of his career. The change in teams in the offseason can’t be positive with the Redskins having a step down in receiving talent from the Chiefs. Very good game manager, which doesn’t mean much to a Fantasy owner. Not my kind of dance.
In 2018, Case Keenum could be a huge trap, or he may help the Broncos have growth in the passing game. Denver has two good lead WRs while Courtland Sutton will be a tough cover as a third WR. The TE position remains a black hole in this offense while RB position remains in transition. His lack of a proven NFL resume would push me elsewhere.
Last year I drafted Eli Manning as my QB2 on many rosters. The Giants had tons of injuries at WR in 2017, but it did allow both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard to gain more looks. I expect both players to better going forward. When you add a stud WR1 in Odell Beckham and elite RB1 with pass catching ability, Eli has all the tools to deliver a special season at QB. New York doesn’t have a great offensive line, which does invite some quiet games when Manning lacks the desired passing window to get the ball downfield. Slam dunk upside QB2 with the firepower to push his way to a top eight QB season.
Here’s a look at most of the remaining options at QB in 2018:
A Fantasy owner can’t dismiss Blake Bortles as viable QB. Last year Bortles was the best QB in the championship rounds of the high-stakes market. Blake also has a top-five season on his career resume. The Jaguars have a strong defense plus an upside running game, which will lead to some short games from Bortles when Jacksonville plays from the lead.
I like the core receiving players on the Browns, which gives Tyrod Taylor a chance at the best season of his career. Taylor adds value with his legs while minimizing the damage in turnovers. His window to start may be short with the ultra-talented Baker Mayfield ready to push his way into the starting lineup. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the QB stats in Cleveland in 2018 rank in the top 12 in the NFL. Taylor is going to win a lot of money in the daily games this year for Fantasy owners.
They say “Cheaters never win”; I guess they don’t play Fantasy Football as the best Fantasy owners that cheat the QB position have an excellent feel for the drop off at all positions while waiting to vulture a QB that slips too far in drafts. In 2018, I can see a team or two winning an overall championship by selecting all their QBs after the top 12 options are off the board.
When making your decisions on your starting Fantasy QB this season, review the receiving options on each NFL roster while also taking in each QBs career resume. These two data points should point you in the right direction at QB in 2018.
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