Daily Dr. Roto—June 27, 2018
Earlier today on Facebook, FullTime Fantasy Sports put out a poll to its followers. The poll asked who was the preferable 1st round pick in PPR formats—Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt or Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins? Let’s take a deeper look at the two players to see which one is worthy of the earlier selection.
Kareem Hunt started out 2017 as one of the top players in all of Fantasy Football. After Week 5 he was a dominant force for his owners as a dual threat both running and receiving. Then from Weeks 6-13 Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid stopped using Hunt consistently and Hunt’s value dropped tremendously. Towards the end of the season, however, Hunt was terrific from Weeks 14-16 and lead many of his owners to a Fantasy Championship.
DeAndre Hopkins had little love heading into 2017. The Texans were not sure who they were going to use at QB, and many Fantasy owners shied away from selecting Hopkins because of the lack of trust they had with the Texans passing game. In fact, I took him in the third round of the SiriusXM Host Draft. However, rookie QB DeShaun Watson changed everything as he energized the Texans and propelled the team to some of the best offensive numbers in years. Hopkins was the biggest beneficiary of those games and even when Watson got hurt and was out for the season, Hopkins’ confidence helped to ensure that he was the second best WR in the AFC.
So…heading into 2018 who would I select? I honestly think it might be too close to call. Let’s take a closer look at my early projections:
Hunt: 1200 yards rushing (120 points), 8 rushing TDs (48 points), 50 receptions (50 points), 500 yards receiving (50 points), and 4 receiving TDs (24 points). This equals 292 total points.
Hopkins: 1300 yards receiving (130 points), 90 receptions (90 points), 10 receiving TDs (60 points). This equals 280 total points.
It’s close to a statistical dead heat!
I think that deciding between the two players comes down to a few issues:
- Will Andy Reid learn how to use Hunt more consistently this season?
- Will DeShaun Watson’s knee be 100 percent and allow him to play from Week 1?
I think that at the end of the day, choosing between the two players is going to be more about roster construction than it is about player ability. Fantasy owners need to decide that if they pass on Hunt, which RBs will be available to them in the middle of Round 2 and Round 3? By passing on Hopkins, there might be a better chance of getting a top receiver in the middle of Round 2. That said, the choice might be Hunt and AJ Green vs. DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook (or Devonta Freeman). Both pathways can lead to a Fantasy title because as we all know it’s not just about who you select in rounds 1 and 2 that matter, but the entire 20 rounds of your draft.
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