PITCHING
Kluber – Chalky today in a very good matchup against a Detroit team coming in hitting just .187 and 2 HR against rhp over the past week. High K upside, but this Detroit team is very pesky and a little bit better now that Miggy is back. (Risk factor 3)
Paxton – One of my favorite pitchers has been extremely dominant against righties who are hitting just .169 against him. Lefties are having the best success hitting .346. The lefties for Tampa don’t really provide much pop at all from the left side. This should be a smash spot here. (Risk factor 2)
Porcello – This is a risky spot here for him as he’s struggled against lefties this season. Moncada is always a threat when sitting from the left side, but Porcello does offer a 23.5% k rate at home and a 3.54 era. Chicago will throw probably 3 lefties at him so if you do roster Porcello don’t watch this game. (Risk factor 6)
Urena – Salary saved for the day. Great ground ball rate at 52.2% and 20.8% k rate at home. ONLY problem with Urena is he gets almost no run support. It’s around 1 run of support a game. I think that changes today as I also like the Miami RHB to give him some runs.
STACKS
Milwaukee – Weather could be an issue here but Eflin struggles against lefties giving up a .281 average and 3 home runs. That also include a 50% fly ball rate. Lefties in play here with Aguilar
(Yelich Villar Shaw -Aguilar)
Boston – Lopez is the tale of 2 pitches with drastic home road splits. On the road he has a 4.86 era while giving up a .300 average and 3 home runs to lefties. There’s a lot of power from the left side for Boston, including a red hot Benintendi. Lefties the play here (JBJ Benni Devers Moreland)
Seattle – Eovaldi has always struggled with giving up the long ball and I think that continues here today. 2 lefties and 2 righties I really like today. (Seager Span Haniger Segura)
SNEAKY STACK
Miami – Richard has struggled with RHB this season giving up 9 home runs and a .261 average. Righties are also hitting him at a 41:3% hard contact while over the past 10 days Miami has hit lefties at a .260 clip and 4 home runs. There’s also some narrative here as the Marlins are celebrating the final day of their 25 anniversary throw back weekend, where there’s a ton of Marlins alum in attendance.
