Season Long – NFL

Tony Pollard
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

October 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished […]

Week 8 DFS: Running Back Report

Five of the top seven scoring running backs came off the pace in the running back rankings. D’Onta Foreman scored three times, leading to an impact game (33.00 fantasy points). Alvin Kamara (29.30) finished second, thanks to his value in passing game (12/91). The fantasy market saw the first sign of explosiveness from Jahmyr Gibbs (27.60), lifting him to 26th in running back scoring. Gus Edwards (21.40) and Jonathan Taylor (21.40) also climbed the running back rankings. 

Over the last three weeks, Travis Etienne (27.47 FPPG) has been the highest-scoring running back, followed by Alvin Kamara (21.80 FPPG). Here are the top five running backs after seven weeks in fantasy points per game:

  • Christian McCaffrey (24.66)
  • Raheem Mostert (20.93)
  • Travis Etienne (19.71)
  • Kenneth Walker (17.43)
  • Kyren Williams (15.87)

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

 

Elite Tier Option

 

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,200)

After a downtick in snaps in Week 5 (73%) and Week 6 (58%), the 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all 53 plays against Minnesota. His rushing yards had been short in three consecutive games (19/51/1, 11/43, and 15/45/1), with a step back in value in receiving stats (2/27, 3/9/1, and 3/51/1). McCaffrey has a touchdown in each game in 2023 (11 scores over seven starts). He’s averaging 21.6 touches per game.

Cincinnati is about league-average defending running backs (20.27 FPPG) despite allowing 5.0 yards per rush. The Titans had the most success (27/162/1 with four catches for 29 yards). Backs only have 20 catches for 141 yards on 28 targets due to a favorable schedule (CLE – 23/171/2, BAL – 27/269/0, LAR – 18/128/1, TEN – 22/220/0, ARI – 23/120/0, and SEA – 23/153/0). 

Brock Purdy is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion. Over the first five games (all wins), the 49ers averaged 33.4 points (35.7 at home – 14 touchdowns over 32 possessions). San Francisco’s running backs already scored 17 touchdowns. That gives McCaffrey a much higher ceiling than all other backs in the NFL, along with a high floor. A two-game losing streak and some home-cooking points to the 49ers regaining their scoring in Week 8, led by Christian McCaffrey.

 

 

Second-Tier Options

 

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Travis Kelce
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report

October 27, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report The top five tight ends in Week 7 were all chalk players. Travis Kelce (12/179/1) posted an impact game, leading to him opening up a 27.50 fantasy point lead in tight end scoring. Darren […]

Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report

The top five tight ends in Week 7 were all chalk players. Travis Kelce (12/179/1) posted an impact game, leading to him opening up a 27.50 fantasy point lead in tight end scoring. Darren Waller (7/98/1) finished second, followed by Mark Andrews (4/63/2), T.J. Hockenson (11/86), and Dallas Goedert (5/77/1). The best two outlier tight ends with uptick games last week were Taysom Hill (5/68/1) and Dalton Kincaid (8/75). Here’s a look at the top five tight ends after seven weeks based on fantasy points per game in PPR formats:

  • Travis Kelce (17.79)
  • T.J. Hockenson (13.86)
  • Mark Andrews (13.39)
  • Sam LaPorta (12.96)
  • Darren Waller (79.00)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 8 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Option

 

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

After a slow start to the season in yards (26, 69, 60, and 67), Kelce started to make bigger plays over the last two games (three catches of 20 yards or more, with two reaching the 40-yard mark). He scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in three consecutive games, highlighted by his production in Week 7 (12/179/1). Over the last three weeks, Kelce has 31 catches for 370 yards and two touchdowns on 33 targets (93.9% catch rate). In Week 6, he had nine catches for 124 yards on nine targets against the Broncos.

Denver ranks 28th defending tight ends (42/486/3 on 50 targets). Their biggest failures came against Washington (7/89/1), Chicago (10/111/2), and Kansas City (11/138). The Broncos’ pass defense allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 16 touchdowns over seven games.

Kelce has an insanely high salary, one that he reached in fantasy points once in 2023 (35.90) and twice in 2022 (33.50 and 35.50). He is the clear No. 1 receiving option for Kansas City (nine targets or more in five of six games). I can’t dismiss a pair of scores and an active role in catches and yards, but his price point requires more creative roster building with fewer outs shining at the backend of the player pool at other positions. 

 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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Lamar Jackson
DFS

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

October 26, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by […]

Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report

The big dogs at quarterback were the winning plays in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes (39.10) edged out Lamar Jackson (38.45) in fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Josh Allen (28.95) finished fourth, followed by Jalen Hurts (28.05). The best option was Gardner Minshew (34.15), thanks to two surprising touchdowns and a pair of long touchdowns. My go-to low-value guy was Tyrod Taylor (24.45), who ranked seventh for the week. The theme for the week was QB/TE hookups while offering different levels of investment at DraftKings:

  • Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce – 76.76 ($16,300 = 4.71 X)
  • Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews – 60.75 ($13,300 = 4.67 X)
  • Tyrod Taylor/Darren Waller – 47.25 ($10,100 = 4.77 X)

The Giants combo could have been the best pairing if the elite options at running back and wide receiver delivered elite games.

Here’s a look at the top five scoring quarterbacks after seven weeks:

  • Josh Allen (183.85)
  • Jalen Hurts (180.45)
  • Patrick Mahomes (176.25)
  • Lamar Jackson (170.80)
  • Justin Herbert (145.60 – one fewer game)

Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 8 DFS: Quarterback Report.

 

Top-Tier Options

 

Patrick Mahomes (DK – $8,400/FD – $9,000)

A Trip to Bountiful (Denver) bodes well for Mahomes to have another elite game. He rates as the top quarterback in the land again in Week 8 after posting his best game (453/4) of the year, thanks to a season-high in catches of 20 yards or more (6), two of which reach the forty-yard mark (46 and 53). Mahomes has a floor of 39 pass attempts in five of his seven starts. Last year, he had two high-floor games (349/3 and 336/3) vs. the Broncos, but Mahomes failed to produce a winning outcome against them in Week 6 (337/1).

Denver has the third-worst defense against quarterbacks (23.64 FPPG), with Miami (375/5) and Chicago (360/4) posting impact games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, with four teams passing for at least 299 yards. The Broncos have tightened up their wide receiver defense over the last three matchups (NYJ – 6/87, KC – 9/103/1, and GB – 10/98/2), but tight ends produced winning stats in four games (7/89/1, 10/111/2, 7/81, and 11/138) this season.

The Chiefs’ defense has yet to allow more than three touchdowns or 21 points in a game this year, so the Broncos’ lack of offense may lead to more running back action in this matchup. I’m a fan of offenses trending up, especially when having a favorable matchup the following week. Mahomes should have a floor of 300 passing yards and three scores, but he needs a few more yards and a fourth score to fill his salary bucket. Rinse and repeat seems to be the story here. Keep an open mind about Jerick McKinnon (on the field for a season-high 37% of the Chiefs’ snaps in Week 7) possibly finding his way onto the winning ticket in this matchup.

 

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DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

October 25, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.

That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.

Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 15 29 22 26
Buffalo Bills 5 6 14 4 3

Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.

For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.

The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.

However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.

Tampa Bay Offense 

The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…

How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?

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Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
Season Long – All Sports

Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 7

October 25, 2023 Scott Atkins

Snap counts tell us who is playing but they don’t always paint a clear picture of who is producing for our fantasy football lineups. By digging deep into FullTime Fantasy‘s Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 7, we are able […]

NFL Snap Counts Frequently Asked Questions

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

 

What are NFL snap counts?

Snap counts represent the total number of offensive plays a player participated in during a given week.

Why should I care about NFL snap counts?

The number of times a player is on the field for a player can be incredibly useful. It helps track usage, and how players are used and provide fantasy football managers with the ability to look beyond the usual on-field production by adding context to those more traditional statistics.

How are your NFL snap-count numbers compiled?

NFL snap counts are tracked by the NFL Game Statistics and Information System (GSIS). For the last two years, each player has had a chip inserted in his shoulder pads so that radio transmitters in stadiums can track his every move on the field. This is how the GSIS compiles snap counts (and other on-field information).

How can I use NFL snap counts to leverage my success in fantasy football?

Understanding playing time can be a key factor in setting your weekly lineup. In particular, understanding and identifying trends that might give you an early jump on acquiring free agents or making trades for players who might quietly be gaining playing time.

What are the possible drawbacks to using NFL snap counts as part of my fantasy football lineup strategy?

As FantasyPros recently noted, studying snap counts and the percentage of snaps played is one of the easiest ways that we can determine one of the most basic, but important questions for potential fantasy success: Is this player even on the field often enough to make a difference? That said, NFL snap counts only outline playing time, and being on the field is only the first step to fantasy relevance. It’s not the only step. Don’t emphasize snap counts over production.

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

SNAPS Total offensive snaps played by player.
SNAP % Percentage of offensive snaps played.
RUSH % Percentage of snaps played where player had a rushing attempt.
TGT % Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.
TOUCH % Percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions).
FPTS Fantasy points scored by player.
PTS/100 SNAPS Average fantasy points scored by player per 100 snaps

Gain access to incredible data like this each and every week! To read the rest, become a Fulltime Fantasy Member and get access to Waiver Wire/FAAB, Snap Counts Report, WR Matchups, Customized Weekly Rankings, and Private WDIS help on Sunday Mornings. USE BLITZ50 for 50% off your first 2 months or SAVE20 for 20% OFF OUR 6-MONTH PACKAGE!
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Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

October 23, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8

It’s hard to believe the 2023 campaign is now halfway over. The inaugural half ended with a whimper, with six teams on bye and decreased scoring. However, no teams have a bye in Week 8, so scoring should improve. The playoff drive starts Thursday. Let’s see what FullTime‘s Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 8 additions we can target to improve our postseason odds.

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

 

Josh Downs (WR) Indianapolis Cotls (25% FAAB) – Over his last three games, Downs has out-scored Michael Pittman. Downs has developed a solid rapport with Garnder Minshew. However, Downs has been producing all season. He’s played 75.8% of Indianapolis’s snaps and boats a 20.1% target rate. Downs is now WR25 for the season but is still widely available on waiver wires. Prepare to bid high. Also, keep Alec Pierce (1% FAAB) in mind as a low-price option.

Darrell Henderson (RB) Los Angeles Rams (20 % FAAB) – Welcome back to the league, Hendo! Days after being signed as a free agent, Henderson re-debuted with the Rams and led the backfield in Week 7. Henderson played 57% of LA’s snaps and out-touched Royce Freeman (7% FAAB) 19-12. Kyren Williams went to IR last week. Subsequently, Henderson has RB2/3 upside for the next three games. Or as long as he can hold onto the nominal starting gig.

Chuba Hubbard (RB) Carolina Panthers (15% FAAB) – Hubbard was one of my top adds last week. However, with Carolina on bye, he may have slipped through the cracks. Miles Sanders was already losing snaps to Hubbard. Also, Sanders missed Week 6 with a shoulder injury. Sanders has underperformed in 2023 and was already losing…

To see the rest of this week’s waiver wire and FAAB targets…

 

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