Season Long – NFL

Joe Burow
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

November 15, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11

We need redemption after last week’s clunker. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday tilt featured two contenders from the tough AFC North. The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 11 breaks down the fantasy and sports betting prospects for the Bengals versus Ravens slugfest.

The road through the AFC playoffs currently goes through Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s Ravens boast an AFC-best 7-3 mark and will be amped to right the ship after a last-second loss to Cleveland in Week 10. Baltimore’s +113 point differential is the best in the league and the club is preparing for this game as if it were a postseason contest.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off of an emotional home loss to a Texans team that Baltimore easily handled in Week 1. The Bengals got off to a rough start thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. But Zac Taylor’s had won four straight before Week 10. One of Cincinnati’s losses came to Baltimore, so the Bengals will be extra motivated to even the score.

Baltimore opened as a slight favorite. However, the line has shifted to the Bengals currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs. And the opening total of the game was 43.5.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Cincinnati Bengals 27 16 32 23 20
Baltimore Ravens 4 20 1 5 5

It is quite unusual to see the Bengals sporting a bottom-tier offense. But most of those struggles can be attributed to Joe Burrow’s preseason calf strain. The Bengals scored one of zero touchdowns in three of their first four games- the main culprit in that 1-3 start.

However, things have drastically turned around since that 34-20 drubbing of the Cardinals. Burrow has been the fantasy QB4 over the last four games. Also, the running game has struggled all season. Cincinnati is running for an NFL-worst 74.8 yards per game. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Thursday.

While the Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offense, their performance has fallen flat. Todd Monken’s high-octane passing attack hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, Baltimore is back to being an old-school Ravens’ offense that leads the league in rushing.

Also, Baltimore’s defense ranks fourth overall while leading the league in fewest points allowed. The Ravens have won four of their last five when hosting the Bengals. Another victory would seriously hamper Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Finally, weather shouldn’t be a factor. Gametime temperatures are projected to be 52 degrees with less than a 10% chance of showers.

Cincinnati Offense 

Cincinnati’s passing game has improved at the same rate as Joe Burrow‘s recovery…

How will Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens game go?

To get Jody’s BEST BET and finish reading this content…

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]

Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 11

November 13, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 11 The good news is that the Week 11 bye slate isn’t near as rough as last week’s. However, the bad news is that we are one week closer to the playoffs. That leaves little […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 11

The good news is that the Week 11 bye slate isn’t near as rough as last week’s. However, the bad news is that we are one week closer to the playoffs. That leaves little time left for middle-of-the-pack teams to secure a spot. Knowing which Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 11 players to bid on is one of the best ways to improve your odds of getting an important win in Week 11.

Also, it helps to be proactive with next week’s holiday slate on the horizon. Here are the top fantasy football waiver wire: Week 11 players to add.

Week 11 Byes: Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

Devin Singletary (RB) Houston Texans (15% FAAB) – After a dud game in Week 9, Singletary enters Monday night as the overall RB3. That’s fantasy football. However, there’s a good chance that Singletary can actually usurp Dameon Pierce as Houston’s main runner. Singletary is far more effective in a one-cut zone scheme than Pierce, who is averaging an awful 3.0 yards per carry. Also, the Texans trust Singletary more in the passing game. Both backs are likely to remain involved, but it is Singletary is is trending up. That makes adding him a top priority ahead of Week 11.

Noah Brown (WR) Houston Texans (10% FAAB) – Over the last two weeks, Brown is up there with CeeDee Lamb in receiving yards. However, unlike Lamb, there are legitimate concerns about how long it can last. Nico Collins missed Week 10, opening up the door for Brown to stay in three-wide sets. Once Houston’s top three of Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods (6% FAAB) are back, Brown could see his snaps decrease. Of course, with the way he’s played, maybe Woods will. Therein lies the risk with Brown…

To see the rest of this week’s waiver wire and FAAB targets…

 

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS THURSDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]

DFS

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

November 11, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) […]

Week 10 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The theme for last week in the DFS market was the Houston Texans’ passing game, highlighted by the success of Tank Dell (6/116/2 – 1st) and Noah Brown (6/153/1 – 3rd). CeeDee Lamb (11/191) finished second, giving him explosive stats (23/349/2 on 30 targets) over the past two weeks. Three other wideouts (Amari Cooper – 24.90, Stefon Diggs – 22.60, and Diontae Johnson – 22.00) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five wide receivers by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:

  • Tyreek Hill (25.03)
  • A.J. Brown (22.61)
  • Stefon Diggs (21.82)
  • Keenan Allen (20.63)
  • CeeDee Lamb (19.96)

Also, before we get into the Week 9 DFS: Wide Receiver Report, check out the QB Report, RB Report, and TE Report.

Top Tier Options

Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,800/FD – $9,000)

Since posting two impact games in Week 2 (8/111/2) and Week 3 (18/215), Allen averaged 14.76 fantasy points (30/318/2 on 44 targets). He remains on an elite pace (132/1,530/9 on 176 targets). The Chargers’ wideout had 66 catches for 768 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets over the first three games, followed by 60 catches for 744 yards and two touchdowns on 95 targets over their last five matchups.

The Lions rank 14th vs. wide receivers (98/1,174/7 on 163 targets). Seattle (20/171/2), GB (15/210/1), and CAR (19/197/2) had the most success. Wideouts have a low catch rate (60.1) while gaining 12.0 yards per catch. CB Brian Branch (17/133/3 on 24 targets – per PFF) allows short yards per catch (7.8). 

Allen has the edge in experience in his WR/CB matchup, and he is the Chargers’ top target by a wide margin. His salary requires more than 34.00 fantasy points, so Allen needs a high-scoring game with multiple touchdowns to be viable in Week 10. I view him as overpriced, and Los Angeles hasn’t shown the passing for him pay off in this matchup.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $8,600/FD – $9,300)

The Bills held Chase to four catches for 41 yards on eight targets while playing through a back issue after landing awkwardly on an incomplete pass. Cincinnati lists him as questionable for this week’s game. He was on the field for 90% of their snaps last week, suggesting that Chase should play on Sunday. His best value this year came in Week 3 (12/141), Week 5 (15/192/3), and Week 8 (10/100/1). Over his other five starts (5/39, 5/31, 7/73, 6/80, and 4/41), he failed to score more than 15.00 fantasy points.

Houston has the fourth-best…

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]

DFS

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report

November 10, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre […]

Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report

The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre Swift (9.4) fell short of expectations in fantasy points. Rachaad White took advantage of his favorable matchup to post his best outing (20/73/2 and 4/46) of his young career. Only four other backs (Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.90, Josh Jacobs – 21.80, Austin Ekeler – 21.00, and Keaton Mitchell – 20.80) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:

  • Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
  • Travis Etienne (20.49)
  • Raheem Mostert (19.07)
  • Derrick Henry (15.34)
  • Josh Jacobs (14.56)

Gus Edwards has been the top-scoring back over the last three weeks (21.40, 29.40, and 17.20).

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.

Elite Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)

For any daily gamer starting their roster with McCaffrey, they tied up 18.4% of the salary at DraftKings and 17.5% at FanDuel. He averages 26.43 and 23.05 fantasy points at those sites, giving him a floor of 2.87X and 2.19X if McCaffrey hits his scoring average. His only impact game (48.70 fantasy points) came in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals at home. He scored at least 22.50 fantasy points in five other matchups, with his second-highest output (29.80) coming in Week 8.

McCaffrey gains his edge by scoring touchdowns (13 over eight games). He reached paydirt in 17 consecutive contests. Over his last two starts, the 49ers had him on the field for 98.2% of their snaps.

The Jaguars are about league average in running back defense (15th – 19.68 FPPG), with their down games in fantasy points allowed coming in Week 6 (29.40) and Week 7 (30.70). Over the last three games, running backs have been productive in catches (1IND – 11/84, NO – 12/91, and PIT – 9/61) while receiving 38 combined targets. Jacksonville allowed 3.6 yards per rush (16.9 attempts per game by running backs). No team has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game (four total by running backs).

For McCaffrey to pay off in Week 10, the Jaguars’ defense would have to have their worst day of the season. Also, the 49ers’ top back would have to score almost all of the team’s fantasy points. On the positive side, he could have his best day catching the ball based on the direction of Jacksonville’s defense in this area over the past three weeks. McCaffrey has the highest floor in the game while forcing a DFS player to be creative when filling out the backend of their roster.

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]

Season Long – All Sports

Week 10 NFL Player Props

November 10, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 10 NFL Player Props FullTime Fantasy Members are getting their money’s worth if they’ve been following this column since the beginning of the season. Despite one week with a losing record, we had been profitable every single week we […]

Week 10 NFL Player Props

FullTime Fantasy Members are getting their money’s worth if they’ve been following this column since the beginning of the season. Despite one week with a losing record, we had been profitable every single week we released prop bets to target. That trend continued in Week 9 when we went 4-2 (+1.7 Units). We are now 28-20 (+10.2 Units) on the 2023 season. 

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props as we prepare for Week 10’s slate of NFL action. Last week, I recommended the Dameon Pierce under. But because he was ruled out, that bet was void. We would have gone 5-1 if not for Patrick Mahomes’ last-minute kneeldowns that lost him a few critical rushing yards. This week, we’ll be sure to target seven healthy players and look to continue our hot streak!

Fantasy football managers have an edge when it comes to prop betting. That is because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 10 NFL player props to continue our profitable sports betting season. 

C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)

After last week’s epic five-touchdown performance, Stroud throwing two touchdown passes at plus odds seems like a slam dunk. Especially against Cincinnati’s 22nd-ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks. Although Stroud has much better splits in Houston versus the road, the Texans are going to have to air it out to keep up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Stroud won’t repeat his earth-shattering performance of Week 9. But I like his chances of finding the end zone twice on Sunday.

Houston’s rushing game has been abysmal with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Texans rely on the young rookie yet again. Even without Nico Collins, Stroud still has Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and even Robert Woods returned to practice this week.

And although Stroud has struggled on the road, he’s returning to the same neck of the woods where he played his college ball. This isn’t the same type of road game he’s played previously in the NFL. He’ll have tons of support from Ohio State alumni in Cincinnati. Given the odds, the expected game flow, and Stroud’s recent success, slam the over. 

Lamar Jackson…

WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…

 

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]

george kittle
DFS

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report

November 10, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three […]

Week 10 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, six tight ends scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, led by Dalton Schultz (10/130/1). Cade Otton (24.00) finished second, followed by Cole Kmet (23.50). The best tight end over the past three weeks has been Taysom Hill (20.12 FPPG). Here are the top five players by scoring average after nine weeks in PPR formats:

  • Travis Kelce (15.63)
  • T.J. Hockenson (14.63)
  • Mark Andrews (13.86)
  • Sam LaPorta (13.80)
  • Cole Kmet (12.06)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 8 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 10 DFS: QB Report.

Top Tier Options

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)

Even in a blowout game against the Seahawks, Andrews caught a season-high nine passes for 80 yards on 10 targets. He averaged 16.95 fantasy points in PPR formats over his last six starts, highlighted by two winning outputs (25.00 and 22.30). On the downside, Andrews averaged only 6.9 targets. His best game (5/80/2) came in Week 4 vs. the Browns.

Cleveland has the best tight end defense (19/155/2 on 28 targets). They held seven opponents to fewer than 6.00 fantasy points (CIN – 3/17, PIT – 1/2, TEN – 3/7, SF – 1/1, IND – 1/-6, SEA – 2/32, and ARI – 3/22). The Browns played well defensively in three games (3, 3, and 0 points allowed) while showing much more weakness on the road (88 points over three matchups). They have 26 sacks, requiring the tight end to help in pass protection on some plays.

The Ravens’ offense has been exceptional over their last three games (106 points), leading to 13 touchdowns and five field goals over 34 possessions. Baltimore runs the ball well, especially in scoring (15 touchdowns). Andrews will have some chances at the goal line, but he needs a wide open game to fill his salary bucket. Not ideal for his salary, but I can’t dismiss him. 

George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,1000/FD – $6,300)

A chaser game in Week 8 led to Kittle setting season-highs in catches (9), receiving yards (149), and targets (11), lifting him to sixth in tight end scoring (94.50 fantasy points). Over eight starts, he has been a losing investment in four matchups (3/19, 3/30, 1/9, and 1/1) while receiving 12 combined targets in those games. His best three days came at home (7/90, 3/67/3, and 9/149). The injury to Deebo Samuel bumped up his value over the two previous weeks.

The Jaguars rank 25th…

 

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS SUNDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

[…]