Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3

September 20, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 Last week’s battle was as high-scoring and entertaining as we expected. For Week 3, old NFC rivals square off. However, injuries to both teams will have an impact. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: […]

Last week’s battle was as high-scoring and entertaining as we expected. For Week 3, old NFC rivals square off. However, injuries to both teams will have an impact. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 breaks down the Giants versus 49ers grudge match.

New York pulled off an improbable comeback on Sunday in Arizona but must avoid getting down early to this talented San Francisco squad. Also, the Giants are expected to be without their top offensive weapon.

The 49ers look like one of the best teams in football. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 18 against the G-Men and enter this game as 9.5-point favorites.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New York Giants	23	24	13	25	28
San Francisco 49ers	7	16	3	2	3

Things looked dire for the Giants last week. After getting drubbed in their opener, Brian Daboll’s team found themselves down 20-0 at halftime against the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Glendale on Sunday. Fortunately, the Giants stormed back and outscored the Cards 31-7 in the second half to improve to 1-1.

Playing that lackadaisically won’t work against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers.

San Francisco beat the Rams to improve to 2-0. The 49ers boast the league’s No. 7 offense and have also allowed the third-fewest points in the league. Shanahan’s crew can win via the pass or run and will bring it defensively.

Also, the Giants will be without their best weapon, RB Saquon Barkley. This complicates things for Daboll and company. Also, the Giants will be without Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson on the offensive line.

However, this game still has significant fantasy football and DFS implications that we will break down in this Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3…

How will Thursday’s Giants vs. 49ers game go?

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Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 2

September 20, 2023 Scott Atkins

Snap counts tell us who is playing but they don’t always paint a clear picture of who is producing for our fantasy football lineups. By digging deep into FullTime Fantasy‘s Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 1, we are able […]

NFL Snap Counts Frequently Asked Questions

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

What are NFL snap counts?

Snap counts represent the total number of offensive plays a player participated in during a given week.

Why should I care about NFL snap counts?

The number of times a player is on the field for a player can be incredibly useful. It helps track usage, and how players are used and provide fantasy football managers with the ability to look beyond the usual on-field production by adding context to those more traditional statistics.

How are your NFL snap-count numbers compiled?

NFL snap counts are tracked by the NFL Game Statistics and Information System (GSIS). For the last two years, each player has had a chip inserted in his shoulder pads so that radio transmitters in stadiums can track his every move on the field. This is how the GSIS compiles snap counts (and other on-field information).

How can I use NFL snap counts to leverage my success in fantasy football?

Understanding playing time can be a key factor in setting your weekly lineup. In particular, understanding and identifying trends that might give you an early jump on acquiring free agents or making trades for players who might quietly be gaining playing time.

What are the possible drawbacks to using NFL snap counts as part of my fantasy football lineup strategy?

As FantasyPros recently noted, studying snap counts and the percentage of snaps played is one of the easiest ways that we can determine one of the most basic, but important questions for potential fantasy success: Is this player even on the field often enough to make a difference? That said, NFL snap counts only outline playing time, and being on the field is only the first step to fantasy relevance. It’s not the only step. Don’t emphasize snap counts over production.

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

SNAPS Total offensive snaps played by player.
SNAP % Percentage of offensive snaps played.
RUSH % Percentage of snaps played where player had a rushing attempt.
TGT % Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.
TOUCH % Percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions).
FPTS Fantasy points scored by player.
PTS/100 SNAPS Average fantasy points scored by player per 100 snaps

Gain access to incredible data like this each and every week! To read the rest, become a Fulltime Fantasy Member and get access to Waiver Wire/FAAB, Snap Counts Report, WR Matchups, Customized Weekly Rankings, and Private WDIS help on Sunday Mornings. USE BLITZ50 for 50% off your first 2 months or SAVE20 for 20% OFF OUR 6-MONTH PACKAGE!
Sign up here!.

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Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

September 16, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can […]

Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

The first week of the NFL season delivered an interesting mix of wide receiver production at the top end. Our Week 2 DFS: Wide Receiver Report recaps who hit value and how we can use that data to make profitable lineup choices in Week 2.

Tyreek Hill (11/215/2 on 15 targets) was an absolute beast, while Brandon Aiyuk (8/129/2) and Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) had excellent games. Three wideouts (Kendrick Bourne – 6/64/2, Puka Nacua – 10/119, and Rashid Shaheed – 5/89/1) finished in the top 10 in wide receiver scoring, all of which were probably found in the free agent pool in some leagues in Week 2. Justin Jefferson (9/150) did his job, and Calvin Ridley (8/101/1) rewarded his believers with a great start to the season.

Just like in 2022 (9/122/1), Michael Pittman (8/97/1) kicked in the wide receiver door in Week 1 despite freefalling in drafts in early September due to the passing concerns for Anthony Richardson. Ten other wideouts scored between 15.00 and 19.90 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2DFS QB Report Week 2DFS TE Report, and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

Top Tier Options

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,000)

The threat of Sauce Gardner (he allowed four catches for 59 yards on five targets per PFF) slowing down Diggs in Week 1 ended up being a false theory. Buffalo found creative ways to get him the ball, leading to 10 catches for 102 yards and one score on 13 targets. The Bills’ secondary receiving options struggled to make big plays (19/134 – 7.1 yards per catch). Over his 50 games with the Bills, Diggs has 497 targets (9.9 per game). In his 10 home games in 2022, he gained more than 100 yards in six starts (12/148/3, 8/102/1, 12/128, 7/104/1, and 7/114).

The Raiders were about the league-average vs. wide receivers (208/2,660/13 on 314 targets in 2022), with three offenses (DEN – 13/203/2, SEA – 17/206/1, and KC – 16/221) gaining more than 200 yards from their wideouts. Their top three cornerbacks in Week 1 gave up nine catches for 101 yards on 11 targets. Both the Broncos’ passing touchdowns came against their safeties.

Diggs is the chain-mover for Buffalo, and he should be active again in Week 2. To reach 30.00 fantasy points, the Bills need to get him at least one score and find him on at least one long pass to reach the 100-yard bonus at DraftKings. His salary looks more favorable at FanDuel.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Based on Joe Burrow’s struggles in Week 1 (14-for-31 with 82 passing yards) and his lack of success vs. the Ravens in 2022 (233/2, 225/1, and 214/2), the daily market should fade Chase and his star quarterback in Week 2. On the positive side, Baltimore will most likely be without their top cornerback (Marlon Humphrey), and their starting safety (Marcus Williams) has already been ruled out.

Last year, Chase was active in all three games (7/50, 9/84/1, and 9/84/1) vs. the Ravens with 37 targets, but he failed to hit on any long plays. When at his best in 2022, he gained over 100 yards in four matchups (10/129/1, 7/132/2, 8/130/2, and 10/119/1), three of which came at home.

Baltimore finished 22nd defending wide receivers (227/2,875/12 on 353 targets) last season. Their secondary had some problems vs…

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Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

September 15, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 […]

Week 2 DFS: Tight End Report

The tight end position came up empty for too many fantasy teams in Week 1, highlighted by two star players (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) taking the week off. In addition, George Kittle (4.90 fantasy points) and Dallas Goedert (no catches) weren’t worthy of starting in any format. T.J. Hockenson (11.50 fantasy points) was the third-highest scoring option in PPR formats.

Six of the top 10 scoring tight ends were either undrafted or resided on fantasy benches.

Hunter Henry (5/56/1)
Hayden Hurst (5/41/1)
Donald Parham (3/21/1)
Blake Bell (2/12/1)
Harrison Bryant (2/5/1)
Adam Trautman (5/34)

Zach Ertz led all tight ends in targets (10) despite being questionable to play in Week 1. Logan Thomas (8), Durham Smythe (7), and Kylen Granson (6) ranked in the top 10 in targets despite being found in the free-agent pool in almost all 12-team league heading into Week 2. Here’s the total tight end production from Washington, Miami, and Indianapolis in 2022:

Commanders – 60/518/2 on 98 targets
Dolphins – 47/491/6 on 75 targets
Colts – 75/803/6 on 108 targets

Indy had the best overall tight end opportunity of the three last year while throwing the ball over 600 times. The change at quarterback points to a minimum of 100 fewer throws. Also, the Colts rotated in three options in Week 1. Here is the snap breakdown for their tight ends in 2022: Mo Alie-Cox (586), Kylen Granson (408), and Jelani Woods (334).

Last season, only five tight ends averaged more than 10.00 fantasy points per game in PPR formats (7 in 2021 and 6 in 2020).

Here’s a look at some tight ends on the main slate in Week 2 in the DFS market:

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2 DFS QB Report and Week 2 DFS RB Report.

Top Tier Options

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000)

In the early projections, Andrews is the top-rated tight end for Week 2. But he is far from a lock to be a difference-maker after turning in a limited practice on Wednesday. Last year, he scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in four of his 14 matchups (25.70, 28.90, 22.90, and 23.60), but they all came over the first six weeks. Andrews also sat out Week 1 in 2022 but delivered an impact game (9/107/1) the following game vs. the Dolphins at home. He had two starts (8/89/1 and 5/73) against Cincinnati last season.

The Bengals (88/924/3) struggled to defend the tight end four times (7/115,10/96/1, 10/87, and 8/67/1) in 2022. The Browns’ tight ends had five catches for 41 yards and one score on six targets in Week 1.

Andrews comes into this week with risk in his role and potential snaps. At the same time, his higher salary requires 25.00 fantasy points to be worth the investment. If he plays, I don’t expect him to be a popular option, creating an edge ownership if he does pay off. I’m only taking a flier on him on teams with Lamar Jackson.

George Kittle, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200)

Kittle had a dull showing in Week 1 (3/19 on six targets) while being in the field for 69% of the 49ers plays. When at his best late in 2022, San Fran gave him 90% or more of their tight end snaps in 11 of his 18 games. His best success came over four games (4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1, and 4/29/2) late last season with Brock Purdy behind center. Kittle had five catches or more in only four matchups (5/47, 8/83, 6/98/1, and 6/120/2) with only one double-digit target game (10).

The Rams finished 13th in…

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Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report

September 15, 2023 Shawn Childs

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report […]

After the first week of the NFL season, seven running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. There were 21 other backs that finished between 10.00 and 17.50 fantasy points. This Week 2 DFS: Running Back Report will help identify winning plays to target in Week 2.

The Chargers (40/234/3) had the most success running the ball, followed by Cleveland (40/206/1), San Francisco (34/188/1), and the Jets (28/172/1). The 16 games resulted in 22 scores on the ground, with four offenses hitting pay dirt three times (LAR, LAC, BAL, and DAL). The Vikings had the worst rushing offense (17/41), while Pittsburgh (10/41) and Las Vegas (29/61) ranked 31st and 30th.j

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $8,900/FD – $9,500)

It took McCaffrey one game (169 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 25 touches) to show his edge at the running back position. He hit on a 65-yard score to set up his great day. The 49ers had him in the field for 85% of their snaps. That was a total he only hit three times in 2022 with San Francisco. Last year, McCaffrey averaged 20.98 FPPG in PPR formats, with his one impact game (183 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) coming on the road against the Rams.

Los Angeles was league-average defending running backs in 2022 (404/1,753/12 with 79 catches for 665 yards and two scores on 103 targets). Three offenses posted more than 40.00 fantasy points from their backs.

McCaffrey is a high-floor player. But his high salary requires well over 30.00 fantasy points to be in play in Week 2. Ultimately, any decision to play him comes from finding value at other positions…

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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2

September 14, 2023 Jody Smith

The opening week of the 2023 NFL season was filled with surprises. A good percentage of those were poor ones. That includes both participants in tonight’s games. Hopefully, both squads can turn it around, but we’ll dig deep in our […]

The opening week of the 2023 NFL season was filled with surprises. A good percentage of those were poor ones. That includes both participants in tonight’s games. Hopefully, both squads can turn it around, but we’ll dig deep in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.

Philadelphia managed to pull out a win in Week 1 but had an underwhelming offensive showing in New England. Meanwhile, the Vikings were stunned at home, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17.

Both teams are loaded with fantasy-relevant talent. The main question is will we see both offenses rebound? The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 analyzes the game with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Minnesota Vikings	6	3	31	2	20
Philadelphia Eagles	24	23	14	22	8

Both squads fought in close matchups in their openers. Philadelphia’s potent offense was held to 154 passing yards by Bill Belcichik’s defense. The Eagles were just 4-of-13 on third downs and held to 4.1 yards per play.

Expect things to rebound for Philly on Thursday. Turnovers did the Vikings in last week. Minnesota outplayed the Buccaneers but lost the turnover battle 3-0. For the Vikings to have a shot against a tough Eagles team on the road, they must clean up that part of their game.

Minnesota enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog. The over/under of 49 is the second-highest of the slate.

Let’s break down what that means from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.

How will Thursday’s Vikings vs. Eagles game go?

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Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]

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Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 1

September 12, 2023 Jody Smith

Snap counts tell us who is playing but they don’t always paint a clear picture of who is producing for our fantasy football lineups. By digging deep into FullTime Fantasy‘s Advanced NFL Snap Counts Report: Week 1, we are able […]

NFL Snap Counts Frequently Asked Questions

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

What are NFL snap counts?

Snap counts represent the total number of offensive plays a player participated in during a given week.

Why should I care about NFL snap counts?

The number of times a player is on the field for a player can be incredibly useful. It helps track usage, and how players are used and provide fantasy football managers with the ability to look beyond the usual on-field production by adding context to those more traditional statistics.

How are your NFL snap-count numbers compiled?

NFL snap counts are tracked by the NFL Game Statistics and Information System (GSIS). For the last two years, each player has had a chip inserted in his shoulder pads so that radio transmitters in stadiums can track his every move on the field. This is how the GSIS compiles snap counts (and other on-field information).

How can I use NFL snap counts to leverage my success in fantasy football?

Understanding playing time can be a key factor in setting your weekly lineup. In particular, understanding and identifying trends that might give you an early jump on acquiring free agents or making trades for players who might quietly be gaining playing time.

What are the possible drawbacks to using NFL snap counts as part of my fantasy football lineup strategy?

As FantasyPros recently noted, studying snap counts and the percentage of snaps played is one of the easiest ways that we can determine one of the most basic, but important questions for potential fantasy success: Is this player even on the field often enough to make a difference? That said, NFL snap counts only outline playing time, and being on the field is only the first step to fantasy relevance. It’s not the only step. Don’t emphasize snap counts over production.

The Snap Counts report and tool is invaluable in breaking down what’s happening behind the numbers.

SNAPS Total offensive snaps played by player.
SNAP % Percentage of offensive snaps played.
RUSH % Percentage of snaps played where player had a rushing attempt.
TGT % Percentage of snaps played where player was targeted by a pass attempt.
TOUCH % Percentage of snaps played where player touched the football (includes pass attempts, rush attempts and receptions).
FPTS Fantasy points scored by player.
PTS/100 SNAPS Average fantasy points scored by player per 100 snaps

Gain access to incredible data like this each and every week! To read the rest, become a Fulltime Fantasy Member and get access to Waiver Wire/FAAB, Snap Counts Report, WR Matchups, Customized Weekly Rankings, and Private WDIS help on Sunday Mornings. USE BLITZ50 for 50% off your first 2 months or SAVE20 for 20% OFF OUR 6-MONTH PACKAGE!
Sign up here!.

[…]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1

September 6, 2023 Jody Smith

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season! To kick off another glorious campaign, the NFL schedule makers did us a solid by matching up two of the league’s top offensive clubs. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the upstart […]

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season! To kick off another glorious campaign, the NFL schedule makers did us a solid by matching up two of the league’s top offensive clubs. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the upstart Detroit Lions. Our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 breaks down all you’ll need to know for your fantasy football lineups.

With Travis Kelce ailing, there is some uncertainty about this game. That has caused some books to remove this contest altogether. However, Kansas City is still a 6.5 -point favorite. The total dipped a point to 52.5.

Subsequently, we will update our preview when there is clarity. Until then, here is FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 1 with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Detroit Lions	4	8	11	4	3
Kansas City Chiefs	1	1	20	1	1

* above ranks are from the 2022 season

Starting in Week 2, teams playing on Thursday are disadvantaged by playing on short rest. However, that doesn’t apply in Week One. Both high-powered offenses are well-rested. This game still boasts the highest over/under total for the slate.

The fantasy football ramifications for this one can’t be understated. Both the Chiefs and Lions fielded top-5 offenses last season. Also, fantasy football rosters are peppered with skill position players from both squads.

Andy Reid is noted for success with extra time to prepare. Reid’s teams are 27-4 after a bye. The Chiefs have won eight consecutive season openers under Reid and are 9-1 overall in Week 1. In those eight victories, Kansas City has averaged a whopping 36.4 points per game.

That is going to be a real problem for Dan Campbell’s Lions. Detroit hasn’t won in Week 1 since 2017. However, that hasn’t been all bad from a fantasy perspective. Detroit might be 0-2 under Campbell in Week One, but the Lions have averaged 34 points per game.

With that history and the abundance of skill position talent on both sides, the 2023 season should get off to a bang. Subsequently, this is a game with major fantasy ramifications.

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Chiefs game go?

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NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 6, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Seahawks – 6 Over/Under: 46.0 The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into […]

NFL Week 1 Rams at Seahawks: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Seahawks – 6

Over/Under: 46.0

The Rams come into 2023 with a rebuilding feel, and their star wide receiver (Cooper Kupp) is battling a hamstring injury heading into Week 1. Matthew Stafford is a proven quarterback, but his secondary receiving options are below the league average. Cam Akers played well late last season, giving the fantasy market hope that he will build on his success this year. I see risk in the secondary for Los Angeles, pointing to Seattle throwing the ball well if DE Aaron Donald can’t shorten the passing window.

The Seahawks bring a high foundation of the receiving corps, highlighted by DK Metcalf and the exciting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett has an excellent resume despite being on the wrong side of 30. Seattle lines two exciting young running backs – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The biggest question for this team is their defense, which is a win for overall scoring by their offense.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford

Last season, over nine starts, Stafford delivered one playable game (272/3) in the fantasy markets. His completion rate (68.0) was a career-best, but he had a decline in pass attempts per game (33.7 – 35.4) and an increase in his sack percentage (8.7 – 4.8 in 2021).
In addition, his yards per pass attempt (6.9) declined by 1.2 yards from 2021 (8.1). His year ended after Week 11 with a neck injury.
With Cooper Kupp trending toward a sit in Week 1, Stafford’s projection will be lowered in the next update.
The Seahawks ranked 16th in quarterback defense, with one team scoring over 30.00 fantasy points.
Seattle should score in this game, so a chaser game gives Stafford a chance only if Kupp is a full go.

Cam Akers

Last season, Akers was a bust in the fantasy market over the first nine games (84/274/1 with two catches for 18 yards) while also missing two games with personal issues (not getting the ball enough).
From Week 12 to Week 16, he gained 240 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.
The Rams gave Akers a workhorse opportunity over his final three matchups (23/118/3, 19/123, and 21/04 with six combined catches for 63 yards), with the latter coming against Seattle.
The Seahawks finished 28th in running defense (27.72 FPPG), with five teams scoring more than 35.00 fantasy points.
There has been talk out of Rams’ camp that Kyren Williams would see more time this season on passing downs. Akers has the tools to rush for 100 yards with a score, putting in range…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

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