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kyle pitts
Season Long – All Sports

Week 4 NFL Player Props

September 27, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 4 NFL Prop Bets Week 3 was another profitable weekend for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. We went 5-2 (+2.6 units) and are now 10-4 (+5.0 units) on the season. Garrett Wilson was a mere one yard away from […]

Week 4 NFL Prop Bets

 

Week 3 was another profitable weekend for the bettors at FullTime Fantasy. We went 5-2 (+2.6 units) and are now 10-4 (+5.0 units) on the season. Garrett Wilson was a mere one yard away from us producing a 6-1 record last week. Let’s see if we can continue this trend of winning wagers in our Week 4 NFL Prop Bets.   

Through three weeks of the season, there have been more injuries than usual and countless surprise performances. In the fantasy football world, not many people would have expected Kirk Cousins as the QB1, Raheem Mostert as the RB1, Keenan Allen as the WR1, and T.J. Hockenson as the TE1.

Perhaps some may have predicted Hock as a top tight end but Sam Laporta, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram are just behind him before Travis Kelce rounds out the top-five tight ends. All this is to say that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

However, fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below.

Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets.

Justin Fields OVER 184.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I know, I know, how is it possible to put your trust in Fields’ arm after his less-than-mediocre start to the 2023 campaign? Well, Fields gets a juicy matchup against a Denver Broncos team that just allowed a whopping 70 points to the Miami Dolphins. The winless Bears will host the winless Broncos at Soldier Field and this is the perfect get-right game for Fields and the rest of the Chicago offense. 

Although Fields only managed to throw for 99 yards last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, he did eclipse 200 passing yards in each of his first two contests of the season. With better weapons than he has had in previous seasons, particularly in D.J. Moore, look for Fields to right the ship in Week 4.

The Broncos are currently allowing…

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Jordan Love Green Bay Packers
DFS - NFL

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

September 27, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 There were some huge performances last week and Week 4 is getting off to a promising start as the Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4

There were some huge performances last week and Week 4 is getting off to a promising start as the Detroit Lions travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 4 breaks down this week’s NFC North battle.

The Lions had a quiet showing on Sunday but were able to move to 2-1 by topping Atlanta. Detroit is optimistic that both LT Taylor Decker and RB David Montgomery will return for this game. Both would be welcomed additions in fantasy football circles.

Meanwhile, the Packers are also looking at substantial reinforcements. WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones are expected to play. Detroit enters this game as 1.5-point favorites and the over/under has risen to 46.

Matchup 

TEAM OFFENSE PASS RUSH YDS/PLAY POINTS
Detroit Lions 8 7 11 5 12
Green Bay Packers 22 18 23 15 8

 

Similar to last season, Detroit boasts a potent and balanced offense. The Lions are capable of moving the ball on the ground or through the air quite well. They also protect the quarterback well and avoid turnovers.

However, Detroit tends to be much more potent at home. Also, the Packers have dominated this series at Lambeau, winning 21 of the last 25.

Green Bay’s offense stands out in one key area. Scoring touchdowns. The Packers rank fifth in the NFL in third down conversion rate. Also, they’re top-10 in offense and defense red-zone efficiency.

The Packers opened as slight favorites. However, the line has shifted to Detroit now being favored.

Detroit Offense 

Jared Goff posted a 109.3 QB Rating and tossed 23 of his 29 touchdowns at home last season. Goff played well on the road in Week 1 and…

How will Thursday’s Lions vs. Packers game go?

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De'Veon Achane
Season Long – All Sports

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 4

September 25, 2023 Jody Smith

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 4 Week 3 had some unreal performances. Any time that happens, you can expect a flurry of Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 4 activity. That’s when it is crucial to know not only what players […]

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 4

Week 3 had some unreal performances. Any time that happens, you can expect a flurry of Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 4 activity. That’s when it is crucial to know not only what players to target, but how much of your remaining FAAB budget you should allocate to acquire their services.

Here are the top fantasy football waiver wire: Week 4 players to target—also, a recommended FAAB value to spend.

FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget

De’Von Achane (RB) Miami Dolphins (50%+ FAAB) – Sunday’s trouncing of the Broncos looked like a Tecmo Super Bowl performance versus the computer. We talked about Achane’s big-play ability in our Rookie Scouting Profile. However, even we didn’t see this performance coming. Achane turned 22 touches into 233 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday. Obviously, that won’t happen again. But Achane will stay involved. If he happens to be available in your league, don’t let another manager outbid you.


Zack Moss (RB) Indianapolis Colts (20% FAAB) – Moss headlined our Week 3 waiver wire piece. The veteran came through with another outstanding performance in Baltimore. However, the looming return of Jonathan Taylor complicates things. On one hand, Taylor could make Moss irrelevant. However, if Taylor is traded or doesn’t get activated, Moss offers RB2 ability for the rest of the season. If people were sleeping last week and failed to add Moss, be prepared to make a sizable bid to take that chance.

Tank Dell (WR) Houston Texans…

To see the rest of this week’s waiver wire and FAAB targets…

 

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Travis Etienne - preseason pro
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

September 23, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre […]

Week 3 DFS: Running Back Report

A late surge in the fourth quarter by Brian Robinson (two touchdowns) pushed him to the top of running back scoring in Week 2, edging out Kyren Williams (28.00), Saquan Barkley (27.20, and D’Andre Swift (27.10). Six other running backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five back in scoring in PPR leagues after two games:

  • Christian McCaffrey (48.40)
  • Kyren Williams (22.70)
  • Brian Robinson (42.50)
  • Tony Pollard (42.10)
  • Bijan Robinson (20.75)

 

There have already been three significant injuries to running backs (Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley), sending fantasy managers to an ultra-thin waiver wire to solve their injury woes.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report, WR Report, and TE Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

Tony Pollard, DAL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,400)

Over the first two weeks of the season, the Cowboys have played from the lead for about 150 minutes while never trailing in a game. They’ve struggled to run the ball in other matches (4.1 and 3.0 yards per rush) despite averaging 37 carries. Pollard has been on the field for 64% of their snaps in both contests, leading to 191 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches (42.10 fantasy points in PPR formats). He is well behind last year’s pace in yards per rush (3.6 – 5.2 in 2022) and yards per catch (5.4 – 9.5 in 2022). Pollard scored eight of his 12 touchdowns at home last season. 

The Cardinals defended running back well over the first two games (44/149/1 – 3.4 yards per carry). They’ve allowed two receiving scores to backs, with minimal damage in catches (8) and receiving yards (46). Arizona finished 27th in running back defense (27.39 FPPG) in 2022.

Pollard had seven rushes inside the five-yard line and 12 inside the 10 yards. I didn’t like to see Rico Dowdle on the field near the goal line last week on one series. But Dowdle failed to reach paydirt in his two chances. Pollard’s 32 touches in Week 2 were career-high. His salary in the DFS market requires an impact game. That is something he achieved only once in 2022 (149 combined yards with three touchdowns and one catch). I see a correct game coming in big plays, giving him a chance to be the top running back of the week.

Bijan Robinson, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)

The fantasy market got a taste of the potential in Week 2 vs. the Packers. Atlanta gave him 24 touches compared to 16 by Tyler Allgeier, leading to a wide edge in combined yards (172 to 48). His snap count rose from 63% to 72%. Robinson had 39 touches on the year while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Two of his plays gained at least 20 yards.

His first road start comes in Detroit, matching him against the electric Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions played well vs. the run over the first two games (23/90 and 25/82/2 – 3.6 yards per rush), with 37.8% of their yards allowed coming from…

 

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CeeDee Lamb
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

September 22, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report Thankfully, we saw an increase in scoring last week. Hopefully, that action led to a better outcome in your DFS lineups. This week, our Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report will help you make […]

Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report

Thankfully, we saw an increase in scoring last week. Hopefully, that action led to a better outcome in your DFS lineups. This week, our Week 3 DFS: Wide Receiver Report will help you make better lineup decisions in what looks like a challenging slate.

Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s  Week 3 DFS: quarterback and tight end reports.

 

After two games, Justin Jefferson (9/150 and 11/159) and Puca Nacua (10/119 and 15/151) are the only two wideouts to score more than 20.00 fantasy points in both weeks. They also rank first and second in targets (25 and 35). Nine wide receivers have 20 targets or more. 

Keenan Allen (8/111/2) led the Week 2, followed by Nacua (15/151) and Mike Evans (6/171/1). Seventeen wideouts scored between 20.00 and 30.00 fantasy points (eight in Week 1). In PPR formats, Tyreek Hill ranks first in wide receiver scoring (59.50).

 

Top Tier Options

 

Davante Adams, LV (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,900)

Jimmy Garoppolo looks Adams’ way 17 times over the first two weeks, leading to 12 catches for 150 yards and one touchdown. His ceiling has been limited due to the Raiders only attempting 50 passes. Last season, he had seven impact games (10/141/1, 3/124/2, 10/146/2, 9/126/1, 7/141/2, 8/177/2, and 7/153/2).

The Steelers showed risk vs. wide receivers in Week 1 (SF – 13/184/2). But a better pass rush (six sacks) and weaker quarterback play by Deshaun Watson led to a 50% catch rate on 28 targets with 160 yards vs. the Browns. In 2022, Pittsburgh finished seventh in wide receiver defense (29.60 FPPG) despite two disastrous games (BUF – 18/389/4 and PHI – 13/236/4). CB Patrick Peterson has already given up two touchdowns and multiple long plays.

Adams needs the Raiders to open up the passing game and do a better job moving the chains. He remains a volume pass-catcher with elite upside in scoring. Home cooking should treat him well on Sunday.

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,700)

The game has been relatively easy for Jefferson over the first two weeks (20/309 on 25 targets). He’s gained 20 yards or more on 40% of his catches with an elite catch rate (80%). The structure of the Vikings’ receivers and their offensive game plan creates plenty of open field and opportunities. Last year, Jefferson scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in seven contests.

The Chargers have already allowed 32 catches for 565 yards and four touchdowns on 43 targets to wide receiver while allowing a dismal 17.7 yards per catch. Tyreek Hill (11/215/2) dominated their defense in Week 1. Last year, Los Angeles was slightly above the league average against wideouts (31.50 FPPG). CB J.C. Jackson made a couple of mistakes in Week 1, leading to a pair of long catches and a touchdown. Overall, he has held receivers to a low catch rate.

Minnesota attempts a high volume of passes in most games. However, they need to create…

 

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Evan Engram
DFS

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report

September 22, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report Two weeks into the 2023 season, only one tight end (T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2) scored more than 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. His success moved him to first overall, followed by Hunter Henry […]

Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report

Two weeks into the 2023 season, only one tight end (T.J. Hockenson – 7/66/2) scored more than 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. His success moved him to first overall, followed by Hunter Henry (11/108/2). Here’s the ranking of the other top seven tight ends drafted this year:

  • Travis Kelce (4/26/1 – 20th)
  • Mark Andrews (5/45/1 – 12th)
  • Darren Waller (9/112 – 5th)
  • Dallas Goedert (6/22 – 40th)
  • George Kittle (3/49 – 26th)
  • Kyle Pitts (4/59 – 28th)

Zach Ertz leads all tight ends in targets (18).

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 3 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 3 DFS: QB Report.

 

Top Tier Options

 

T.J. Hockenson, MIN (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500)

The theme for Hockenson in the Vikings’ offense had been the same over the first two weeks in 2023. He had been active in both of his starts (8/35 and 7/66/2) while working close to the line of scrimmage (6.7 yards per catch – 8.6 with Minnesota last year). Over his previous 75 catches, Hockenson gained more than 20 yards on only two plays.

This season, tight ends have seven catches for 79 yards on 12 targets vs. the Chargers. Their success was helped by facing two lower-tiered players (Durham Smythe – 3/44 and Chigoziem Okonkwo – 4/35). In 2022, Los Angeles finished 9th in tight end defense (63/874/5 on 103 targets) but gained 13.9 yards per catch.

The Chargers come into this matchup with massive concerns defending wide receivers (32/565/4) and Justin Jefferson staring them down on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Hockenson is slightly more attractive at FanDuel. Either way, he needs at least 25.00 fantasy points to be in play, requiring at least one score and long pass reception to push him over 100 yards receiving.

Mark Andrews, BAL (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)

In his first game back in action, Andrews was on the field for 79% of the Ravens’ snaps. He finished third for the week in tight end scoring (5/45/1) with a team-high eight targets. When at his best last season, he had four impact games (9/104/1, 8/89/2, 8/89/1, and 7/106/1) over the first six weeks. 

The Colts kept tight ends in check over the first two games (5/49 and 6/61). Both players (Evan Engram and Dalton Schultz) finished in the top 12 in tight end scoring in 2022. Indy struggled last year in three games…

 

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Tua Tagovailoa
Season Long – All Sports

Week 3 NFL Player Props

September 21, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 3 NFL Prop Bets The 2023 NFL season has been filled with surprises, on a team level and on an individual level. Through two weeks, Jordan Love has the top passer rating and Puka Nucua leads the league in […]

Week 3 NFL Prop Bets

 

The 2023 NFL season has been filled with surprises, on a team level and on an individual level. Through two weeks, Jordan Love has the top passer rating and Puka Nucua leads the league in receptions. Only Nostradamus would have predicted that. Speaking of predicting, the FullTime Fantasy Week 3 NFL Prop Bets will attempt to project more winners.

 

After a profitable Week 2 in which we went 5-2 (+2.4 units), it’s time to start pinpointing the top prop bets to exploit in Week 3’s slate of action. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 3 NFL prop bets.

 

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (-115)

 

Through two weeks of the season, Tagovailoa is averaging 307.5 passing yards per game and has been one of the most accurate and explosive quarterbacks in the NFL. Some believed Tagovailoa’s 2022 season was a bit of a fluke. But so far, he’s shown that he has the potential to be a top-five quarterback in this league. Especially given the weapons he has to work with. The offense has worked seamlessly under Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme. And defenses are having all sorts of trouble trying to defend…

 

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