Articles by Jody Smith

About Jody Smith
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction. Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.
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chris olave
Season Long – All Sports

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook

July 31, 2023 Jody Smith

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Derek Carr

In his eighth season with Las Vegas in 2021, Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). On the downside, he finished below the league average in touchdowns (23) with a rise in interceptions (14). Carr passed for over 300 yards in seven of his 18 games (including the postseason), but he failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any matchup. Carr was the 12th highest-scoring quarterback (324.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues despite his low-scoring ability. Before 2021 (40/108), he chipped in with some scores on the ground over the previous three seasons (24/47/1, 27/82/2, and 39/140/3).

Coming into last season, his completion rate (68.7) was a strength from 2018 to 2021. Unfortunately, the addition of Davante Adams (100/1,516/14) gave him a true WR1, but his completion rate (60.8) was the lowest since his rookie season (58.1) in 2014. In addition, Carr had a regression in yards per pass attempt (7.0 – 7.8 from 2019 to 2021). The Raiders ended up benching him over their final two matchups. He had repeated weakness in interceptions (14) and touchdowns (24). Carr passed for more than 300 yards in two games (303/2 and 307/2) while delivering three scores in only two contests. Nine of his interceptions came over his last five starts.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the passing history of the Saints with Drew Brees behind center, Carr should throw the ball more than 600 times in 2023 while regaining his lost completion rate by throwing many passes to the running back position. WR Chris Olave (72/1,042/4) played well in his rookie season, and WR Rashid Shaheed (28/488/2) showed growth late in the year, but New Orleans still needs a second elite option in the passing game. A Michael Thomas sighting would help Carr’s passing upside. In late June, he ranked 18th at quarterback while on a path to pass for 4,300 yards and only a slight progression in touchdowns.

Other Options: Jameis Winston, Jake Haener, Taysom Hill

— Running Backs —

When reviewing the rushing data for the Saints in 2022, I need to pull out Taysom Hill’s production (96/575/7) to understand better their running back opportunity. When inputting the team stats last year, I treated Hill as a WR/TE instead of a quarterback, misrepresenting the team’s rushing profile.  New Orleans’ backs gained 1,926 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 85 catches (19.51 FPPG in PPR formats). They set three-year lows in catches (85), receiving yards (650), receiving touchdowns (2), and targets (107) while accounting for 25.2% of their receiving yards.

Alvin Kamara

The lack of quarterback play hurt Kamara in two areas in 2021. He finished with a career-low 3.7 yards per carry (5.0 over his first four years) while having a sharp decline in his value in the passing game (47/439/5 – over 80 catches each season from 2017 to 2020). Despite missing four games with a knee injury, Kamara set a career-high in rushing attempts (240). He averaged 22.1 touches, besting his previous top in 2018 (18.3 per game). Kamara gained 100 combined yards in eight of his 13 starts, leading to 18.05 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His path projected over 17 matchups would have pushed him into the top five in running back scoring.

Last season, Kamara missed another two games with an early season rib issue. Over 15 starts, he gained 1,387 combined yards with a career-low four touchdowns and 57 catches. New Orleans gave him the ball 280 times (16.5 per game) while gaining only 4.0 yards per rush. Kamara rushed for more than 100 yards in two matchups (23/103 and 23/107). His role in the passing game was diminished over his final five contests (2/11, 2/13, 2/34, 1/7, and 1/3). He posted one impact showing (158 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches).

Fantasy Outlook: Kamara has a court date on July 31st regarding an off-the-field incident early in 2022. Based on his ranking in late June (32nd) and the addition of Jamaal Williams, a suspension appears looming if found guilty. I’ll defer on his outlook until his situation clears up in August. 

Jamaal Williams

The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week) in 2021. He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). Williams missed four games with thigh, hip, and Covid-19 issues. He posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.

Despite a minimal uptick in yards per rush (4.1), Williams had the best rushing opportunity (262/1,066) of his career, highlighted by 17 touchdowns. His role in the passing game (12/73) was a career-low. He scored two touchdowns or more in six matchups while gaining more than 100 yards in two games (19/108/2 and 22/144/1). The Lions had him on the field for only 40.6% of their plays.

Fantasy Outlook: Williams gives the Saints veteran experience in case…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE SAINTS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

Chris Olave
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR

July 18, 2023 Jody Smith

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy […]

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

Also, don’t forget to explore our previous 2023 strength of schedule analysis for quarterbacks and running backs. Now, let’s check out the 2023 fantasy football strength of schedule: WR.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

 

Favorable Schedules

 

Chris Olave & Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Playing six games in the NFC South certainly doesn’t hurt for the underrated New Orleans Saints receiving corps. QB Derek Carr should be a big improvement over Andy Dalton. Plus, Carr has a notable history of peppering his No. 1 wideout with targets. That should be a boon for sophomore Chris Olave, who already ranked 10th in the league with a 29.3% target rate in 2022.

Michael Thomas was also off to a fast start before succumbing to another season-ending injury. When healthy, Thomas remains an elite pass catcher. While his fantasy football ADP has started to creep up, Thomas remains an excellent value pick to target in drafts.

For Thomas and Olave, expect a fast start and finish. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule for wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 and again from Weeks 11-15. Also…

WHAT OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

jonathan taylor
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Indianapolis Colts Outlook

July 14, 2023 Jody Smith

2023  Indianapolis Colts Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023  Indianapolis Colts Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Indianapolis Colts Outlook.

— Offense —

Game flow led to Indianapolis throwing 80 more pass attempts than the previous season (524). In 2021, the Colts ran a balanced offense, thanks to the elite season by Jonathan Taylor. Their new coaching staff wants to run that ball based on their game plan in Philly. Ultimately, the number of starts by Anthony Richardson sets the tone for their game plan.

— Quarterback —

Anthony Richardson

After limited playing time in 2021 (930 combined yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions), Richardson made 12 starts for the Florida Gators last year. He ran the ball exceptionally well (103/654/9) while finishing with weakness in his completion rate (53.8) and low pass attempts per game (27.3). His passing stats (2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions) didn’t showcase a star passer. 

Richardson has an electric flow when running the ball that puts him closer to Lamar Jackson than Jalen Hurts. When in the open field, he has the feel to set up defenders and the acceleration to pick up big chunks of yards. Richardson throws with touch and accuracy downfield when his breaking receiver has a wide window of daylight. His challenge comes when throwing timing routes over the short areas of the field.

Fantasy Outlook: The Colts’ quarterbacks only ran the ball 46 times for 165 yards and one touchdown last season. Richardson should beat those totals in about three games. In the early draft season, he is the 17th-ranked quarterback despite no clear information about the number of games he will start. However, the bet and his floor come from his running ability. But Richardson can’t be a difference-maker without throwing the ball better. The new Colts’ head coach invested in Richardson, meaning he’ll quickly move into the starting lineup. I expect 12 to 13 starts, with his best play coming late in the season.

Gardner Minshew

Over his first two seasons, Minshew went 7-13 as the starting quarterback for Jacksonville. His touchdown to interception ratio (37:11) graded well while averaging 240 passing yards per game. A thumb issue led to him losing his starting job over the second half of 2020. 

Minshew appeared in nine games over the past two seasons for the Eagles. He completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,102 with seven touchdowns and four interceptions while chipping in with 16 rushes for 24 yards and one score. In his two starts in 2022, Minshew threw for 629 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Fantasy Outlook: His experience in Philadelphia suggests that Indy may use Minshew as their starting quarterback in September. I don’t expect him to be drafted in 2023, but he may surprise in short spurts.

Other Options: Sam Ehlinger

— Running Backs —

The Colts’ running backs lost 0.89 yards per rush and 2.18 yards per catch from their 2021 stats. They scored 15 fewer touchdowns while gaining 2,301 combined yards with 99 catches. Over the past three seasons, their backs averaged 519 touches, with elite scoring in fantasy points (32.02) in PPR leagues in 2020 and 2021. A certain rookie running quarterback could steal rushing attempts and touchdowns.

Jonathan Taylor

The Colts gave Taylor about 50% of their running back snaps over the first five weeks in 2021, leading to less value than expected running the ball (73/327/2). However, he did shine twice (6/60 and 3/116/1) over this span catching the ball. Indy gave him more than 80% of their snaps over their final eight games. Taylor had a floor of 95 combined yards over his last 12 games while turning into a beast running the ball (259/1,484/16). His role in the passing game dwindled over his final five contests (4/24). He finished the year first in running back scoring (375.10) in PPR leagues with 2,171 combined yards, 20 touchdowns, and 40 catches.

Last season, Taylor kicked in the door in Week 1 (175 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches on 35 touches). He picked up a toe issue in late September, followed by an ankle injury that later required surgery. Taylor missed six games while posting an empty showing (one catch for 13 yards) in Week 15. His only other game of value came in Week 10 (22/147/1 with two catches for 16 yards). In his 10 full starts, Indy gave him 21.9 touches per game. 

Fantasy outlook: Taylor is big and fast with an electric ceiling in scoring, but he needs better quarterback plays to extend drives and create more scoring chances. After a down season, Taylor is the fourth running back drafted with an ADP of 12 in PPR formats in the high-stakes market. Indianapolis should give him all the carries he can handle. Expect a floor of 1,500 combined yards with a dozen scores and a run at 50 catches. I expect his stock to rise as the draft season moves closer to September.

Evan Hull

Over his final two seasons at Northwestern, Hull delivered two productive years (196/1,009/7 with 33 catches for 264 yards and two touchdowns and 221/913/5 with 55 catches for 546 yards and two scores). He gained over 200 yards twice (24/220/4 and 22/216/2) in college, with eight showing with more than 100 rushing yards. 
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the structure of the backup Colts’ running backs…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE COLTS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

Joe Burow
Season Long – All Sports

2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook

July 10, 2023 Jody Smith

2023  Cincinnati Bengals Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview […]

2023  Cincinnati Bengals Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals Outlook.

— Offense —

The Bengals threw the ball 60.5% of the time last season, leading to the seventh overall rank in offensive yards per game. Cincinnati attempted 38.1 passes, an increase of 14.4% from 2021. The Bengals would like more success running the ball to help close out leads in the fourth quarter. The strength of this team is Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, meaning many balls will be in the air again in 2023.

— Quarterback —

Joe Burrow

Coming into 2021, the Bengals appeared positioned to be a high-volume passing team based on Burrow’s 40.4 passing attempts over 10 games in his rookie season. Instead, Cincinnati finished 20th in passing attempts (555 – 32.6 per game) while taking 55 sacks (third-most in the NFL). Burrow overcame his below-par passing opportunity by completing 70.4% of his passes and gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Despite playing well over his first eight games (2,258 combined yards with 20 touchdowns), he failed to lead many fantasy teams to the playoffs after a dull five-game stretch (282/0, bye, 148/1, 190/1, and 300/1). However, for anyone surviving with Burrow in the fantasy postseason, his play was exceptional in Week 16 (525/4) and Week 17 (446/4). He finished the year with 4,729 combined yards and 36 touchdowns or 376.45 fantasy points (8th) in four-point passing touchdown leagues while missing one game.

Burrow ended last season with comparable combined yards (4,732 – 4,729 in 2021) despite having an increase in pass (86) and rush (35) attempts. He became more of a factor in the run game (75/257/5) while missing explosive plays by Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow gains 7.4 yards per pass attempt, with five fewer completions of 40 yards or more. Over his final four starts, he delivered only five passing touchdowns while averaging 234 passing yards. When at his best, Burrow gained more than 300 yards in five matchups (338/2, 300/3, 481/3, 355/4, and 375/3).

Fantasy Outlook: With 76 touchdowns over the past two seasons and a better opportunity on the ground, Burrow looks poised to fight for the top quarterback-scoring slot in the land. He can’t match Josh Allen’s or Jalen Hurts’s running ability, but Cincinnati has two elite wideouts who have yet to play an entire season of games together. Burrow may average more than 300 passing yards with a difference-maker floor in scoring if their offensive line creates a longer passing window. In the early draft season, he ranks fourth at quarterback. I consider him a player to fight for in 2023.

Other Options: Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning

— Running Backs —

The Bengals’ running backs combined for 2,068 yards with 18 touchdowns and 103 catches in 2022, leading to 26.12 FPPG in PPR formats. Despite their fantasy success, their backs continue to gain short yards per rush (4.0), something that has been an issue for three seasons. Joe Burrow’s willingness to use his backs in the passing game should be repeated going forward.

Joe Mixon

After a career season in touches (334), rushing yards (1,205), and touchdowns (16), Mixon missed a pair of games due to a concussion. He still finished 11th in running back scoring (239.50) in PPR formats, but 23.0% of his output came in one monster showing (211 combined yards with five touchdowns and four catches). His only other two games with more than 20.00 fantasy points came in Week 1 (21.50) and the divisional playoffs (20.30).

Over the past four seasons, over 899 carries, Mixon averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, with only 19 of his runs gaining 20 yards or more. He set a career-high in catches (60) and receiving yards (441) in 2022 despite losing snaps (257) to Samaje Perine (225) over his final seven matchups. 

Fantasy Outlook: Mixon gained more than 1,250 combined yards in four of the past five seasons. He has 29 scores over 36 starts, with Joe Burrow on the Bengals’ roster. Despite being in the NFL for six years, Mixon will start the season at age 27. The Bengals have a rising offense with a gear that hasn’t been hit yet. He ranks 21st in the early draft season in the high-stakes market, well below his ranking over the past two seasons (11th and 4th). Any investment in Mixon is a bet on the Bengals’ offense.

Chase Brown

Brown saw action over five seasons in college, leading to 4,079 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and 58 catches. His game progressed in his final two years at Illinois, highlighted by his 2022 season (328/1,643/10 with 27 catches for 240 yards and three touchdowns). Brown started the season with more than 100 rushing in nine matchups while receiving a minimum of 19 carries in all his starts. Over his final seven games, he earned his keep by volume of chances instead of big plays (4.7, 4.4, 4.7, 4.1, 4.3, 4.8, and 3.2 yards per carry).

Fantasy Outlook: A better offensive system and spacing should lead to Brown delivering long runs with the Bengals. He has speed in his back pocket, with various ways to make defenders miss. His potential intrigues me, so following the Cincinnati coach-speak, this summer should hint at his 2023 fantasy opportunity. I expect him to win…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BENGALS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

Season Long – All Sports

2023 New England Patriots Outlook

July 6, 2023 Jody Smith

2023  New England Patriots Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023  New England Patriots Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 New England Patriots Outlook.

 

— PROJECTIONS —

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE PATRIOTS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]

Season Long – All Sports

2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB

July 3, 2023 Jody Smith

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy […]

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

After breaking down quarterbacks previously, here is a deep dive into the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: RB and how to take advantage of that data this draft season.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

Favorable Schedules

Javonte Williams & Samaje Perine (Denver Broncos) – Because there is uncertainty on the health of Javonte Williams’s surgically-repaired knee, drafting both Denver running backs is an easily attainable strategy. Snagging Williams first, then handcuffing Perine would give fantasy drafters the most favorable schedule for running backs in 2023.

Of course, this approach offers plenty of risk. Williams tore multiple ligaments last fall. Meanwhile, Perine has never had an extended run as a starter. However, selecting both players in the new Sean Payton offense offers plenty of fantasy potential.

Plus, Denver gets an appealing slate of games to accrue that production. The Broncos get four games against opponents that…

WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACKS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

 

Check out our FREE profiles of top RB Bijan Robinson and elite WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see the kind of in-depth reports you can expect, only from FullTime Fantasy! 

[…]